October 5, 2026/United Capital Report
Global Markets
United States
The S&P Global US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) fell to 55.9 points in September 2026 from a preliminary estimate of 57.0 points, but remained above August’s 53.9 points. The reading marked the strongest expansion since May 2022, supported by faster growth in output and new orders, particularly across government and technology-related industries. Manufacturers increased production for the 16th consecutive month, while employment growth reached a five-year high. However, export sales declined amid tariffs and higher shipping costs, while lengthening delivery times and rising input costs intensified inflationary pressures.
Euro Area
The S&P Global Euro Area Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rose to 52.9 points in September 2026, exceeding the preliminary estimate of 52.7 points and marking its highest level since May 2022. The expansion was supported by stronger demand, with new orders growing at their fastest pace since March 2022 and export sales increasing for a second consecutive month. Rising demand lifted production requirements, pushing backlogs higher for the first time since April. Employment also increased, reversing a prolonged period of job losses, while manufacturers stepped up purchases of raw materials. Meanwhile, supply delays eased, and business confidence reached a seven-month high. However, input and output price pressures accelerated, pointing to renewed inflationary risks.
Asia
The S&P Global Japan Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) eased to 54.1 points in September 2026 from 54.9 points in August, matching the preliminary estimate. Despite remaining in expansion territory, growth slowed to its weakest pace since March, as output and new orders increased more slowly. Foreign sales continued to rise, although growth eased from August’s eight-and-a-half-year high. Employment continued to expand, while supplier shortages extended delivery times and input inventories increased for the first time in over two years. Meanwhile, input cost inflation eased to a six-month low, although output prices continued to rise. Business confidence remained broadly unchanged.
Oil Markets
Brent crude oil prices declined by 3.38% week-on-week to US$103.00/b as of October 1, while Bonny Light fell by 6.18% to US$117.92/b as of September 30. Despite the recent pullback, prices remain elevated, with Brent and Bonny Light up 69.27% and 85.94% year-to-date, respectively.
Outlook
Global markets will focus on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes this week for clearer signals on the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate path. The minutes should provide further insight into policymakers’ views following weaker US employment data and rising unemployment. This could influence global equities, bond yields and the Dollar as investors reassess expectations for future US interest-rate decisions.In the Euro Area, investors will track inflation and European Central Bank signals, alongside developments in government bond markets. Oil prices and geopolitical developments will also remain key drivers of global risk sentiment and market direction this week.
Domestic Economy
United Capital Research expects headline inflation to ease to 15.32% in September 2026 from 15.39% in August, supported by lower food prices and Naira appreciation. Garri, yam and tomatoes recorded notable price declines, while the Naira appreciated by 2.0% to ₦1,327.31/$ on average. However, higher PMS and Bonny Light prices remain upside risks. Continued disinflation could support lower fixed income yields, stronger bond prices and improved equity market valuations.
Equity Market
The Nigerian equities market closed the week lower, with the NGX All-Share Index (NGX-ASI) declining 0.52% week-on-week to 250,808.27 points. Consequently, the market’s year-to-date return moderated to 61.17%, while sector performance remained mixed. Oil/Gas and Insurance indices gained 0.05% and 0.61%, respectively, while Industrial Goods, Banking and Consumer Goods declined by 0.26%, 1.33% and 0.91%.
Fixed Income and Money Market
The fixed-income market saw divergent movements during the week, with Treasury Bill yields declining while FGN Bond yields increased across all tenors. In the Nigerian Treasury Bill (NTB) market, the 91-day, 182-day and 364-day yields fell by 0.41%, 0.18% and 0.28% to 17.64%, 17.77% and 18.24%, respectively. This reflects stronger demand for short-term instruments amid lower inflation and the recent CBN rate cut. Meanwhile, FGN Bond yields rose across tenors, with the 3-year, 5-year, 7-year and 10-year yields increasing by 0.33%, 0.27%, 0.09% and 0.33% to 15.98%, 16.15%, 16.09% and 16.24%, respectively. In the interbank market, the Overnight (O/N) rate and Open Repo Rate (OPR) declined by 0.59% and 0.80% to 20.39% and 20.00%, pointing to lower short-term funding costs and easing liquidity conditions.
Outlook:
Equity Market
The Nigerian equities market will focus on corporate earnings, investor positioning and liquidity conditions this week following the recent market pullback. The lower MPR and improved Naira stability should continue supporting investor interest in equities. Meanwhile, the Dangote Refinery IPO remains a key liquidity consideration as investors balance participation in the offer against secondary-market opportunities. Foreign investor activity following Nigeria’s return to FTSE Russell’s Frontier Market status will also remain important for market direction. Given the market’s strong year-to-date gain, profit-taking could persist, keeping stock selection and corporate earnings in focus.
Fixed Income Market
The Nigerian fixed income market should remain supported this week as the CBN’s lower MPR continues to filter through market yields. Strong demand for Treasury Bills, particularly at the longer tenor, should sustain downward pressure on short-term yields. However, liquidity conditions and upcoming government supply will remain key determinants of yield movements across the curve. We expect investors to maintain interest in longer-dated instruments as markets adjust to the lower-rate environment.