October 6, 2026/CSL Report
The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) recently released its September 2026 Business Expectations Survey (BES), covering businesses across the Industry, Services, and Agriculture sectors. The Business Confidence Index (BCI) declined marginally to 13.4 points in September 2026, from 14.8 points in August, but remained firmly in positive territory, indicating continued optimism about the macroeconomic and operating environment.
Businesses remained constructive on the outlook, with the BCI projected to rise to 23.6 points in October 2026, 29.9 points in December 2026, and 36.6 points by March 2027. A BCI reading above 0.0 points indicates positive business sentiment, while a reading below 0.0 points signals a negative outlook.
The sustained optimism was underpinned by expectations of greater economic diversification, expansionary fiscal measures, improved access to finance, and continued appreciation of the naira. These factors suggest growing confidence in ongoing efforts to improve macroeconomic stability and enhance transparency in the foreign exchange market.
Sentiment remained positive across all surveyed sectors, with the Electricity, Gas and Water sector recording the highest BCI at 69.6 points, alongside the strongest prospects for expansion. However, multiple taxation, insecurity, and elevated interest rates remained the most significant constraints to business operations.
Meanwhile, the latest Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) also pointed to a gradual improvement in economic activity. The CBN’s composite PMI increased to 53.0 points in September, from 52.7 points in August, remaining above the 50-point threshold that separates expansion from contraction. The concurrent improvement in business confidence and economic activity suggests that the recovery is gaining momentum.
Nevertheless, persistent structural constraints, including insecurity, elevated interest rates, multiple taxation, and inadequate power supply, continue to pose downside risks. Addressing these challenges will be critical to sustaining the recovery, strengthening private-sector activity, and supporting Nigeria’s medium-term economic growth.