The domestic bourse market closed the week lower, as sell pressures on ARADEL (-10.0%), FIRSTHOLDCO (-4.3%), NESTLE (-5.2%) and FIDELITYBK (-10.6%) dragged the All-Share Index lower by 1.0% w/w to 248,363.55 points
October 9, 2026/Cordros Report
Global
According to the United States Department of Labor, initial jobless claims fell by 2,000 to 197,000 in the week ended 3 October, below market expectations of 200,000. This level marked the lowest reading since the 189,000 recorded in mid-July. On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, initial claims declined most in Hawaii (-249), Michigan (-176), and Maryland (-118), while the largest increases were recorded in California (+4,578), Illinois (+1,154), and New York (+985). The four-week moving average also declined by 2,500 to 198,000, from 200,500 in the previous week. Looking ahead, we expect initial jobless claims to remain relatively low, consistent with limited layoffs and continued labour market conditions. The decline in the four-week moving average is consistent with this outlook, although subdued layoffs do not necessarily imply stronger hiring momentum.
According to Eurostat, Euro Area retail sales grew by 0.8% y/y in August, up from 0.4% y/y in July. The modest increase suggests a tentative improvement in retail activity following July’s decline, although the recovery remains subdued. By category, sales of food, drinks, and tobacco increased by 1.6% y/y (July: +1.2% y/y), while non-food products rose by 1.7% y/y (July: +0.4% y/y). By contrast, sales of automotive fuel fell by 3.7% y/y (July: -2.9% y/y). Across the region’s major economies, retail sales in France increased by 1.3% y/y (July: +2.6% y/y). Retail sales declined in Germany by 0.4% y/y (July: -2.2% y/y), while Spain recorded a 0.6% y/y (July: -0.7% y/y) decline. On a month-on-month basis, retail sales rose by +0.1% in August (July: -0.6% m/m). The increase was supported by non-food products (+0.5% m/m vs July: -1.2% m/m) and food (+0.1% m/m vs July: -0.1% m/m), amid a 1.9% m/m decline (July: -0.2% m/m) in automotive fuel. Looking ahead, we expect retail activity to remain subdued if higher energy prices sustain inflationary pressure and erode household purchasing power, while weaker consumer confidence could constrain discretionary spending. A sustained recovery will depend partly on lower energy costs, resilient labour market conditions and an improvement in household purchasing power.
Global Markets
Global equities traded mixed this week, as late-week losses in semiconductor stocks offset early gains in technology shares. Concerns over OpenAI’s revenue outlook weighed on AI-linked stocks, while Brent crude remained above USD104.00/bbl amid Middle East supply risks. Meanwhile, hawkish Fed signals pushed the 10-year US Treasury yield to a 24-year high, reinforcing concerns over tighter monetary conditions. At the time of writing, major US indices (DJIA: +0.1%; S&P 500: +0.6%; NASDAQ: 0.0%) were poised to close the week mostly unchanged. Meanwhile, European equities were mixed, as the FTSE 100 (+0.7%) outperformed on strength in energy names, while the STOXX Europe 600 (-0.1%) closed broadly flat, pressured mid week by concerns over France’s fiscal position and a selloff in banking names, particularly Société Générale and BNP Paribas. In Asia, markets were mixed, as Japanese equities (Nikkei 225: +1.1%) advanced, holding early-week gains near record highs before paring on the global technology selloff, while Chinese equities (SSE: -0.7%) declined as mainland markets reopened after the week-long Golden Week holiday. Finally, the Emerging Market (MSCI EM: -0.6%) index declined on losses in India (-2.7%) and China (-1.2%), while the Frontier Market (MSCI FM: +0.1%) index edged higher, supported by gains in Romania (+0.2%).
Domestic Economy
According to the data from FMDQ, total inflows into the Nigerian Foreign Exchange Market (NFEM) declined by 23.3% m/m to USD5.12 billion in September (August: USD6.68 billion). The decline reflected lower inflows from both domestic (40.2% of total inflows) and foreign sources (59.8% of total inflows). Specifically, domestic FX inflows fell by 31.3% m/m to USD2.06 billion in September (August: USD3.00 billion), the lowest level in three months. The decline reflected lower inflows across the CBN (-52.2% m/m), Individuals (-45.8% m/m), non-bank corporates (-23.2% m/m) and exporters/importers (-18.6% m/m) segments. Foreign FX inflows declined by 16.9% m/m to USD3.06 billion (August: USD3.68 billion). Lower inflows from foreign portfolio investors (-18.1% m/m) and foreign direct investment (-58.3% m/m) more than offset the 43.0% m/m increase in inflows from the other corporate segment. In the near term, the outlook for FX inflows will depend on the resilience of foreign portfolio participation and the recovery of domestic inflows. However, lower domestic yields and persistent geopolitical tensions could reduce the relative attractiveness of naira assets, weakening foreign portfolio inflows and adding pressure to FX liquidity.
According to the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), the composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) expanded to 53.0 points in September (August: 52.7 points), primarily driven by expansion in the industry sector, while services and agriculture sectors moderated. Specifically, industry sector PMI rose to a six-month high of 52.0 points in September (August: 50.6 points), supported by improvements in output and new orders. The improvement was accompanied by stronger activity in electricity supply, water supply and wood products sub-sectors. The services sector PMI edged down to 53.2 points (August: 53.3 points) but remained in expansion for the third consecutive month. New orders improved, while employment and inventories indices softened. The moderation was accompanied by weaker reading in administrative & support services, real estate and information & communication, partly offset by improvements in trade, arts, entertainment & recreation and educational services. The agriculture PMI eased to 53.1 points (August: 53.4 points) but remained above the 50-point threshold for the twenty-sixth consecutive month. The moderation was consistent with softer readings for general farming activities and employment indices. Looking ahead, we expect the composite PMI to remain above the 50.0-point threshold in October, supported by stronger new orders and seasonal agricultural activity. However, rising operating costs could constrain the pace of expansion.
Capital Markets
Equities
The domestic bourse market closed the week lower, as sell pressures on ARADEL (-10.0%), FIRSTHOLDCO (-4.3%), NESTLE (-5.2%) and FIDELITYBK (-10.6%) dragged the All-Share Index lower by 1.0% w/w to 248,363.55 points, bringing the month-to-date and year-to-date returns to -1.1% and +59.6%. On market activity, trading volume and value declined by 26.6% w/w and 12.4% w/w, respectively. On sector performance, the Oil & Gas (-3.9%), Banking (-2.6%), Insurance (-1.7%), and Consumer Goods (-0.6%) indices closed lower, while the Industrial Goods index closed flat.
We expect buying interest to recover modestly in the near term, driven by bargain hunting following the week’s bearish performance. At the same time, the anticipation of Q3 earnings releases is likely to support selective interest in counters with positive earnings prospects.
Money Market and Fixed Income
Money Market
The OVN rate expanded by 5bps w/w to 20.9%, as OMO (NGN3.31 trillion) and net NTB (NGN262.75 billion) debits offset inflows from OMO maturities (NGN2.17 trillion). Meanwhile, average system liquidity moderated to a net long position of NGN4.01 trillion from NGN5.04 trillion from the previous week.
Barring any CBN intervention, system liquidity should remain buoyant next week, supported by NGN2.41 trillion in OMO maturities. However, further OMO issuances could absorb some of the excess liquidity in the system, keeping money market rates broadly around current levels.
Treasury Bills
The Treasury bills secondary market traded on a bearish note as the average yield across all instruments expanded by 20bps to 18.2%. By segment, average NTB secondary market yields expanded by 8bps to 17.9%, reflecting mild selling pressure across the curve as investors largely remained cautious ahead of the week’s NTB auction. Meanwhile, average yields in the OMO secondary market contracted by 17bps to 18.7%, as unmet demand at Tuesday’s (6th October) OMO PMA filtered into the secondary market. At the NTB PMA on Wednesday, the DMO offered NGN900.00 billion across tenors, with total demand reaching NGN1.77 trillion. The DMO ultimately allotted NGN968.47 billion. Stop rates contracted by 4bps to 15.85% for the 364-day tenor while it stayed unchanged at 15.50% and 15.80% for the 91D and 182D tenors, respectively. At the OMO PMA, the CBN offered NGN2.00 trillion in bills, attracting NGN3.53 trillion in demand, and ultimately allotted NGN3.31 trillion. Stop rates settled at 17.22% and 16.92% for the 147D, and 182D tenors, respectively.
Looking ahead, we expect the Treasury bills secondary market to retain a broadly bullish bias, supported by resilient domestic demand amid ample system liquidity.
Bonds
The FGN bond secondary market traded on a bearish note, as the average yield across instruments widened by 25bps to 16.1%, due to profit taking by local investors despite offshore demand. Across the benchmark curve, the average yield expanded at the short (+31bps), mid (+29bps) and long (+14bps) segments reflecting selloffs of the MAR-2027 (+138bps), MAR-2036 (+48bps) and APR-2037 (+50bps) bonds, respectively.
In the near term, resilient domestic demand and improving offshore participation are expected to sustain the bullish market sentiment, although intermittent profit taking could trigger bouts of yield volatility following the recent repricing. Over the medium term, substantial government borrowing needs are likely to keep yields relatively elevated. Further out, the yield trajectory will largely depend on the direction of monetary policy, the pace of foreign portfolio inflows and prevailing domestic liquidity conditions.
Foreign Exchange
The naira appreciated by 3bps w/w to NGN1,331.56/USD, as CBN’s USD300.00 million intervention met domestic FX demand. Meanwhile, gross external reserves increased by USD140.41 million to USD55.07 billion (08 October 2026). In the forwards market, the naira depreciated in the 1-month (-18bps to NGN1,353.04/USD), 3-month (-24bps to NGN1,389.00/USD), 6-month (-39bps to NGN1,439.86/USD), and 1-year (-72bps to NGN1,540.95/USD) contracts.
We expect the naira to remain broadly stable around current levels in the near term, supported by a strong foreign reserve position and a continued current account surplus. That said, downside risks remain from lower domestic yields and tighter global financial conditions.