October 12, 2026/United Capital Report
Global Markets
United States
The S&P Global US Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rose to 58.4 points in September 2026, from 56.0 points in August, marking the strongest private-sector expansion in over five years. Growth accelerated across manufacturing and services, supported by stronger new orders and robust demand. Employment also increased at its fastest pace since June 2022 as workloads expanded. However, input prices rose at their fastest rate since October 2022, prompting firms to increase selling prices and signalling renewed inflationary pressure.
Euro Area
The S&P Global Euro Area Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rose to 53.1 points in September 2026, from 52.0 points in August, reaching its highest level in nearly three and a half years. Growth strengthened across both manufacturing and services, while new orders increased at their fastest pace in 41 months. Foreign orders also recorded their strongest growth in over four and a half years. Rising backlogs supported renewed hiring, although business confidence remained relatively subdued. Meanwhile, input costs and selling prices increased at their fastest pace since May, signalling renewed inflationary pressure.
Asia
Japan’s S&P Global Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) eased to 52.3 points in September 2026, from 53.5 points in August, marking the 18th consecutive month of private-sector expansion. However, growth slowed across manufacturing and services, with new business rising at a softer pace. Employment increased at its fastest pace since February, while higher backlogs pointed to continued capacity pressures. Inflationary pressures remained elevated, although input costs and output prices increased at slower rates. Business confidence improved to a seven-month high, indicating positive expectations for activity ahead.
Oil Markets
Brent crude oil prices declined by 3.38% week-on-week to US$103.00/b as of October 1, while Bonny Light fell by 6.18% to US$117.92/b as of September 30. Despite the recent pullback, prices remain elevated, with Brent and Bonny Light up 69.27% and 85.94% year-to-date, respectively.
Outlook
Global markets will focus on US inflation data and corporate earnings. September’s US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report will shape expectations for the Federal Reserve’s next interest rate decision. In the Euro Area, investors will monitor September inflation figures and developments in French bond yields. In Asia, China’s inflation and trade data will provide fresh insights into export demand and domestic economic conditions. Meanwhile, rising sovereign bond yields and elevated energy prices may keep pressure on global equities and borrowing costs. Strong bank earnings could support US stocks, although persistent inflation may delay monetary easing and strengthen the Dollar.
Domestic Economy
The Composite PMI averaged 52.4 points in 9M 2026, remaining above the 50-point expansion threshold despite contractions in April and May. Activity resumed growth in June and reached 53.0 points in September, supporting expectations of stronger Q3 GDP growth. Compared with August, the Composite PMI improved, reflecting stronger overall private-sector activity. Industry PMI stood at 52.0 points, while Services PMI and Agriculture PMI reached 53.2 points and 53.1 points, respectively. All three sectors remained in expansion territory, supporting corporate earnings and investor sentiment.
Equity Market
The Nigerian equities market closed the week lower, with the NGX All-Share Index (NGX-ASI) declining 0.69% week-on-week to 248,363.55 points. Consequently, the market’s year-to-date return moderated to 59.60%, while sector performance remained varied. The Oil/Gas, Banking and Insurance Indices declined by 3.72%, 1.12% and 1.15%, respectively. Conversely, the Industrial Goods and Consumer Goods Indices gained 0.02% and 0.24%, respectively.
Fixed Income and Money Market
The fixed-income market recorded divergent movements during the week, as Treasury Bill yields showed mixed movements while FGN Bond yields increased across all tenors. In the Nigerian Treasury Bill (NTB) market, the 91-day and 364-day yields declined by 0.38% and 0.03% to 17.26% and 18.21%, respectively. Conversely, the 182-day yield rose by 0.05% to 17.82%. Meanwhile, FGN Bond yields increased across all tenors, with the 3-year, 5-year, 7-year and 10-year yields rising by 0.23%, 0.35%, 0.28% and 0.26% to 16.21%, 16.50%, 16.37% and 16.50%, respectively. In the interbank market, the Overnight (O/N) rate and Open Repo Rate (OPR) increased by 0.43% and 0.40% to 20.82% and 20.40%, respectively, indicating higher short-term funding costs during the week.
Outlook:
Equity Market
The Nigerian equities market is expected to remain sensitive to profit-taking, corporate earnings and investor positioning this week. Investors may favour fundamentally strong stocks with attractive valuations and dividend prospects. Attention will also centre on third-quarter earnings releases, dividend expectations and developments surrounding the Dangote Refinery IPO. However, continued profit-taking in large-cap stocks could limit near-term gains following the market’s strong year-to-date performance. Overall, selective buying may support recovery in fundamentally strong stocks, while sector rotation and foreign exchange stability will influence market direction.
Fixed Income Market
The Nigerian fixed-income market is expected to remain sensitive to liquidity conditions, government borrowing and investor demand this week. Treasury Bill yields may face pressure as investors assess reinvestment opportunities and upcoming primary market auctions. In the bond market, investors will monitor government borrowing plans and demand at upcoming auctions. Overall, yields may trend lower if reinvestment demand strengthens, although inflation expectations and liquidity management will remain key determinants of market direction.