SSA Growth Upgraded, but Structural Constraints Remain

However, higher fuel, fertiliser and food prices are expected to lift median inflation to 5.5% in 2026 from 3.7% in 2025. Nigeria is among the key beneficiaries of the upgrade, with growth forecast at 4.3% in 2026 and 4.4% in 2027, while Ghana’s growth is expected to moderate to 4.8% in 2026 from 6.0% in 2025.

Sub-Saharan Africa

The region’s economy is expected to remain resilient in 2026, with growth outlook revised up to 4.3%. The upgrade is broad-based, with growth projections raised for thirty-five (35) of forty-seven (47) SSA countries, including large economies such as Nigeria, Angola, Ethiopia and Zambia. The revised outlook reflects a combination of cyclical and structural factors. Oil exporters are benefiting from higher commodity prices and stronger extractive activity, while other economies are supported by agricultural rebounds, strong domestic demand and macro-economic reforms.

This implies that the durability of the recovery will depend increasingly on domestic productivity, investment and macroeconomic stability rather than the commodity cycle alone. The Middle East conflict has been transmitted mainly through higher fuel, fertiliser and food costs rather than weaker external demand, while global investment in artificial intelligence (AI), digital infrastructure and the energy transition continues to support demand for the region’s critical minerals.

However, growth remains insufficient to deliver a meaningful improvement in living standards. Per capita income growth is projected at 1.8% y/y in 2026 and an average of 2.0% y/y in 2027–28, from 1.6% in 2025. The poverty rate, measured at US$3 per person per day, is expected to decline only marginally from 47.8% in 2026 to 47.1% in 2027.