October 16, 2026/Coronation Report
Summary
Nigeria’s disinflation trend strengthened in September 2026, with headline inflation declining by 76bps to 14.63% y/y from 15.39% in August, marking the fourth consecutive month of moderation. The decline was accompanied by a sharp reversal in month-on-month food inflation, which fell to -1.55% from 1.02%, supported by improved harvest supplies and lower imported food inflation amid naira appreciation.
However, annual food inflation edged up marginally to 19.59% from 19.57%, highlighting the distinction between falling monthly food prices and the still-elevated annual rate.
Core inflation also moderated in annual terms, falling by 34bps to 12.95% y/y, but its month-on-month rate rebounded to 1.11% from -0.06% in August. This divergence suggests that favourable base effects continue to support annual disinflation, even as current underlying price momentum strengthens. The increase in energy prices and higher monthly inflation across several expenditure categories present potential risks to the durability of the disinflation trend.
Overall, September’s inflation outcome reflects easing food-price pressures and favourable base effects, alongside emerging cost pressures. While the sharp moderation in monthly headline inflation is encouraging, the trajectory of core inflation and the pass-through of energy costs will be important in determining whether disinflation can be sustained.
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