October 20, 2026/Coronation Update
Summary
In its October 2026 World Economic Outlook (WEO), the International Monetary Fund (IMF) raised its global growth forecast for 2026 to 3.1% from 3.0% y/y in the July update, while leaving the 2027 projection unchanged at 3.4%. Growth remains resilient, supported in part by AI-related investment and private-sector adaptability, but the recovery is increasingly uneven. Global inflation is projected to rise to 4.7% in 2026 amid higher energy and food prices before easing to 4.1% in 2027.
For Nigeria, the IMF raised its 2026 growth forecast to 4.2% from 4.1%, with growth projected at 4.3% in 2027. However, elevated energy and fertilizer costs, food insecurity and election-related spending remain risks to the outlook.
Global Economy
The IMF projects global growth of 3.1% in 2026, up from 3.0% in the July WEO update, while 2027 forecast remains 3.4%. The modest upgrade reflects the resilience of economic activity and stronger investment in artificial intelligence (AI), which have helped offset the effects of geopoliticaltensions, higher energy costs and trade uncertainty.
The revisions are uneven across country groups. Growth in advanced economies is projected at 2.1% in 2026, up from 1.7% in the July update, while the forecast for emerging markets and developing economies (EMDEs) has been reduced to 3.7% from 3.8%. AI-related investment and the private sector’s ability to adapt to changing trade and supply conditions continue to support activity. However, higher energy and food prices are adding to cost pressures and complicating the outlook for growth and inflation.
Downside risks include prolonged or escalating conflict in the Middle East or the war in Ukraine, further increases in commodity prices, extreme weather events, renewed trade tensions, fiscal vulnerabilities and a sharper-than-expected slowdown in AIrelated investment. Upside risks include faster AI adoption and productivity gains, improved trade arrangements, more resilient energy supply chains and a faster energy transition.
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