The Nigerian domestic market closed the week on a negative note, as sustained profit taking across bellwethers dragged the benchmark index lower. Precisely, losses in ARADEL (-6.3%), INTBREW (-9.5%), ZENITHBANK (-2.9%), ACCESSCORP (-7.0%) and GTCO (-2.2%) dragged the All-Share Index lower by 0.1% w/w to 247,222.27 points
October 23, 2026/Cordros Report
Global
According to the Office for National Statistics (ONS), UK headline inflation rose to an eleven month high of 3.5% y/y in September (August: +3.1% y/y), exceeding market expectations of 3.4% y/y. The acceleration reflected higher energy costs and an increase in services inflation, while food inflation remained unchanged. More specifically, the energy inflation accelerated to 17.9% y/y (August: +13.8% y/y), reflecting the continued passthrough from elevated global energy prices to energy costs, amid ongoing tensions in the Middle East. At the same time, services inflation, a key indicator of domestically generated price pressures, increased to 3.7% y/y (August: +3.4% y/y). Higher transport prices more than offset lower prices for health and education. Food inflation remained unchanged at 1.3% y/y in September, reflecting lower prices for beef, chocolate assortments and fizzy drinks which offset price increases in cakes, tarts and sweet pies. Core inflation, which excludes energy, food, alcohol and tobacco, increased to 2.8% y/y (August: +2.6% y/y), pointing to a modest pickup in underlying price pressures. On a month-on-month basis, consumer prices rose by 0.4% in September (August: +0.5% m/m). Looking ahead, we expect energy costs to continue contributing to inflation, as their passthrough to production, transport and distribution costs sustain broader price pressures. The increase in core and services inflation, alongside renewed wage pressures, points to a risk that second round effects could become more pronounced, prolonging domestic inflationary pressures. Against this backdrop, we expect the Bank of England (BoE) to raise its policy rate by 25bps to 4.00% at its 5 November meeting (Current: 3.75%). This is consistent with market expectations and reflects policymakers’ efforts to steer inflation back to the 2.0% target.
According to China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), GDP growth accelerated to 4.5% y/y in Q3-26 (Q2-26: +4.3% y/y | Q3-25: +4.8% y/y). The outturn exceeded market expectations of 4.4% y/y. The growth performance was supported by resilient exports and stronger industrial activity, which helped offset continued weakness in domestic demand. In the first nine months of 2026, growth averaged 4.6% y/y (9M-25: +5.2% y/y) and broadly consistent with Beijing’s full-year growth target of 4.5%–5.0%. Exports increased by 16.4% y/y over the first nine months (9M-25: +7.1% y/y), supported by demand for mechanical and electrical products. However, the recovery remained uneven: fixed asset investment fell by 7.2% y/y over the same period, alongside a 20.6% y/y decline in property investment. Elsewhere, retail sales growth rose to 1.1% y/y in September (August: +0.4% y/y), although the pace remained subdued and suggested that households demand was still weak. On a quarter-on-quarter basis, GDP growth accelerated to 1.2% in Q3-26 (Q2-26: +0.9% q/q). Looking ahead, we expect growth in Q4-26 to be supported by demand for technology related exports and targeted policy measures. However, the prolonged property downturn and weak investment are likely to constrain domestic demand, leaving growth vulnerable to shifts in external demand and renewed trade restrictions. This aligns with the IMF’s revised 2026 growth forecast of 4.5% y/y, a 10bps downgrade from its previous estimate of 4.6% y/y and below the 5.0% growth recorded in 2025FY.
Global Markets
Global equities traded on a mixed note this week, as renewed concerns over the scale of AI-related spending triggered a selloff in technology and semiconductor names. Market participants also assessed a surge in Brent crude to a five-month high above USD114.00/bbl, as intensifying attacks on Saudi energy infrastructure reignited inflation concerns. At the time of writing, major US indices (DJIA: +1.7%; S&P 500: +0.1%; NASDAQ: -0.5%) were mixed, as a rotation into defensive sectors lifted the DJIA and cushioned the S&P 500, while the NASDAQ was dragged lower by a chip selloff following Meta’s elevated capital spending outlook. Meanwhile, European equities (STOXX Europe 600: -1.4%; FTSE 100: -1.7%) declined, pressured by French political uncertainty and weakness in semiconductor names. Elsewhere, Asian markets (SSE: -0.7%; Nikkei 225: -4.0%) declined, as Chinese equities fell on continued weakness in technology stocks, while Japanese equities tumbled on the global technology selloff, led by losses in chip-related heavyweights Advantest and Tokyo Electron. Finally, the Emerging Market (MSCI EM: -2.8%) index declined on losses in India (-2.9%) and Taiwan (-2.3%), while the Frontier Market (MSCI FM: +0.4%) index advanced following gains in Vietnam (+3.9%) and Iceland (+1.7%).
Domestic Economy
According to the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), Credit to the Private Sector (CPS) declined by 0.6% m/m to NGN83.93 trillion in September (August: NGN84.47 trillion). The decline may reflect the lagged effects of the CBN’s tight monetary policy stance, as elevated borrowing costs continued to constrain credit demand and lending activity. At the same time, credit to the government rose by 19.3% m/m to NGN39.40 trillion (August: NGN33.04 trillion), indicating an increase government borrowing from the domestic financial system. Currency in circulation increased by 1.5% m/m to NGN5.52 trillion (August: NGN5.44 trillion), indicating a modest increase in cash held outside the banking system. Overall, broad money supply (M3) rose by 5.4% m/m to NGN146.60 trillion (August: NGN139.09 trillion). The increase was accompanied by growth in quasi (+1.0% m/m to NGN96.95 trillion) and narrow (+2.2% m/m to NGN44.05 trillion) money. On a year-on-year basis, credit to the private sector increased by 15.7% (September 2025: NGN72.53 trillion). In the near term, growth in credit to the private sector is expected to recover gradually as recent monetary policy easing feeds through to lending conditions. A moderation in borrowing costs should ease financing constraints and improve businesses’ access to credit, supporting a gradual recovery in private sector investment.
According to the Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC), active telephony subscribers continued to recover in August, increasing by 1.2% m/m to 197.42 million (+15.1% y/y | July: 195.11 million). The improvement reflects the gradual reactivation of lines disconnected during the NIN-SIM linkage exercise, alongside operators’ efforts to attract new subscribers, expand market penetration and improve customer retention. Internet subscriptions also increased by 0.5% m/m to 158.52 million in August (+13.0% y/y | July: 157.71 million). By market share, MTN Nigeria retained its dominant position, accounting for 52.0% of active telephony subscriptions, equivalent to 102.56 million subscribers. Airtel Nigeria followed, with 34.2% market share or 67.42 million subscribers, while Globacom accounted for 12.0% or 23.58 million subscribers. T2 (formerly 9mobile) remained the smallest operator, accounting for 1.8% of active subscriptions or 3.61 million subscribers. Looking ahead, we expect subscriber growth to continue, supported by further expansion from MTN Nigeria and Airtel Nigeria, the two largest operators. In our view, the near term growth will depend on operators’ efforts to improve subscriber retention, strengthen customer engagement, expand distribution efficiency and invest in network coverage. While Nigeria’s favourable demographics provide structural support for subscriber growth, operator-led acquisition and retention strategies are likely to be the main near term drivers.
Capital Markets
Equities
The Nigerian domestic market closed the week on a negative note, as sustained profit taking across bellwethers dragged the benchmark index lower. Precisely, losses in ARADEL (-6.3%), INTBREW (-9.5%), ZENITHBANK (-2.9%), ACCESSCORP (-7.0%) and GTCO (-2.2%) dragged the All-Share Index lower by 0.1% w/w to 247,222.27 points, moderating the month-to-date return to -2.6%, while the year-to-date return settled at +58.9%. On market activity, trading volume and value advanced by 19.6% w/w and 7.4% w/w, respectively. Sectoral performance was mixed, as the Insurance (-2.8%), Oil & Gas (-2.6%), Banking (-0.7%) and Consumer Goods (-0.5%) indices closed lower, while the Industrial Goods (+2.0%) index closed in positive territory.
Next week, trading is expected to remain cautious as the first batch of earnings releases begins to hit the NGX, driving heightened stock-specific activity. Investor focus is likely to centre on earnings quality and forward guidance, prompting selective repositioning across counters.
Money Market and Fixed Income
Money Market
The OVN rate edged down by 2bps w/w to 20.3%, reflecting mixed liquidity flows, as inflows from OMO maturities (NGN2.07 trillion) and NTB maturities (NGN698.05 billion) were outweighed by outflows from OMO (NGN2.63 trillion) and FGN bond debits (NGN2.02 trillion). Meanwhile, average system liquidity increased to a net long position of NGN6.66 trillion from NGN5.83 trillion in the previous week, driven largely by sustained elevated balances at the Standing Deposit Facility window during the week.
Next week, system liquidity should remain robust, bolstered by expected inflows of NGN2.13 trillion from OMO maturities. However, the CBN may conduct an OMO auction to absorb part of the surplus liquidity.
Treasury Bills
The Treasury bills secondary market traded on a bullish note as the average yield across all instruments contracted by 4bps to 18.2%. By segment, average NTB secondary market yields expanded by 5bp to 17.9%, due to selective selling activities across the curve. Meanwhile, average yield in the OMO secondary market contracted by 21bps to 18.5%, reflecting strong reinvestment demand amid robust system liquidity. At the OMO PMA, the CBN offered NGN2.00 trillion in bills, attracting NGN2.73 trillion in demand, and ultimately allotted NGN2.63 trillion. Stop rates settled at 17.63% and 17.14% for the 138D and 180D tenors, respectively.
Looking ahead, we expect the Treasury bills secondary market to maintain a broadly mixed tone, with OMO bills likely to attract stronger demand given their relatively more attractive yield offering. Additionally, the DMO is scheduled to offer NGN800.00 billion in Treasury bills at Wednesday’s (28 October) NTB PMA.
Bonds
The FGN bond secondary market traded on a bearish note, with the average yield across instruments rising by 1bp w/w to 16.4%, as investors stayed on the sidelines ahead of the week’s bond auction. Across the benchmark curve, the average yield expanded at the short (+13bps) and long (+6bps) end reflecting selloffs of the MAR-2028 (+42bps) and JUL-2042 (+65bps) bonds, respectively while it contracted at the mid (-5bps) segment due to demand for the MAY-2029 (-18bps) bond. On Monday, the DMO reopened the FEB-2034, SEP-2036 and JUN-2038 bonds, offering a total of NGN1.75 trillion. Total demand settled at NGN1.75 trillion, with the DMO eventually allotting NGN1.21 trillion in competitive allotments and NGN. The stop rates on the SEP-2036 and JUN-2038 bonds, which were on-the-run at the previous auction, expanded by 50bps and 34bps to settle at 17.29% and 17.19%, respectively. The FEB-2034 bond settled at 16.99%.
Over the medium term, substantial government borrowing needs are likely to keep yields relatively elevated, although monetary policy trajectory, sustained foreign portfolio inflows, and continued disinflation should cap the upward movement in yields.
Foreign Exchange
The naira depreciated by 3.8% w/w to NGN1,385.05/USD, as renewed domestic demand outweighed the impact of the CBN’s USD200.00 million intervention. Meanwhile, gross external reserves increased by USD52.90 million to USD55.15 billion (21st October 2026). In the forwards market, the naira depreciated in the 1-month (-3.2% to NGN1,397.04/USD), 3-month (-3.1% to NGN1,432.31/USD), 6-month (-3.2% to NGN1,484.84/USD), and 1-year (-3.2% to NGN1,581.68/USD) contracts.
We expect the naira to remain broadly stable around current levels in the near term, supported by the level of foreign reserves and the continued current account surplus. However, downside risks remain from lower domestic yields, which could reduce the relative attractiveness of naira denominated assets, and tighter global financial conditions, which could weigh on capital flows.