October 26, 2026/United Capital Report
Global Markets
United States
The US government recorded a budget deficit of US$27bn in September 2026, compared with a US$198bn surplus in September 2025. Government expenditure rose to US$585bn in September 2026 from US$346bn in September 2025, driven largely by Social Security (US$141bn), health (US$100bn), Medicare (US$93bn), and national defence (US$89bn). Meanwhile, government revenue increased to US$558bn in September 2026 from US$544bn in September 2025, supported by individual income taxes (US$298bn), social insurance and retirement contributions (US$149bn), and corporate income taxes (US$87bn). Consequently, the cumulative budget deficit for fiscal year 2026 reached US$1.992tn.
Euro Area
Inflation rate in the Euro Area accelerated for the third consecutive month to 3.8% in September 2026, up from 3.2% in August, marking its highest level since September 2023. The increase was driven by faster price growth in energy (18.9% vs. 14.3%), services (3.2% vs. 3.0%), and food, alcohol and tobacco (1.3% vs. 1.1%). However, inflation in non-energy industrial goods eased slightly to 1.1% from 1.2%. Core inflation, which excludes energy, food, alcohol and tobacco, rose to 2.5% from 2.4%. Among major economies, inflation increased in Germany (3.3%), France (3.4%), Italy (4.2%), Spain (5.0%) and the Netherlands (3.0%). On a monthly basis, consumer prices rose by 0.6% in September compared with August, reflecting renewed inflationary pressures across the Euro Area.
Asia
China’s economy expanded by 4.5% year-on-year (y/y) in Q3 2026, accelerating from 4.3% in Q2 and exceeding market expectations of 4.4%. Growth was supported by policy easing and resilient exports, particularly artificial intelligence-related components, high-tech manufactured goods, and electric vehicles. In September, industrial output and retail sales recorded their fastest growth in six months, partly supported by increased spending during the Golden Week holiday. For the first nine months of 2026, the economy grew by 4.6%, remaining within the lower end of the government’s full-year growth target of 4.5%–5.0%.
Oil Markets
Brent crude oil price rose by 6.84% week-on-week to US$113.17/b, while Bonny Light declined by 4.84% to US$123.97/b. Despite the divergent weekly movements, both benchmarks remained elevated, with Brent and Bonny Light prices up 85.98% and 95.47% year-to-date, respectively.
Outlook
Global markets are expected to remain sensitive to inflation data, Central Bank decisions and geopolitical developments this week. Equity performance will likely depend on corporate earnings and expectations for interest rates, while fixed-income markets may respond to changes in government bond yields. Currency movements and elevated energy prices could also influence investor sentiment, although resilient economic activity may provide some support. Investors will also monitor major central bank meetings and technology earnings for signals on borrowing costs and market valuations. Higher energy prices may sustain inflation concerns, limiting gains across global equities and bonds.
Domestic Economy
Nigeria’s broad money supply (M3) rose by 5.40% month-on-month to ₦146.60tn in September 2026, from ₦139.09tn in August, representing an increase of ₦7.51tn. The expansion was largely driven by Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) bills held by the non-bank public, which accounted for approximately 74.4% of the monthly increase. However, the narrower M2 measure grew by just 1.38% to ₦141.00tn, while private-sector credit declined by 0.64% to ₦83.93tn. The rise in money supply points to improved liquidity in the financial system, which could support economic activity as credit demand strengthens. However, sustained monitoring of liquidity growth remains important to preserve price stability.
Equity Market
The Nigerian equities market closed the week lower, with the NGX All-Share Index (NGX-ASI) declining 0.13% week-on-week to 247,222.27 points. Consequently, the market’s year-to-date return moderated to 58.87%, while sector performance remained varied. The Insurance and Oil/Gas Indices declined by 2.79% and 2.55%, respectively, followed by the Banking and Consumer Goods Indices, which fell by 0.67% and 0.55%. Conversely, the Industrial Goods Index gained 1.95% during the week.
Fixed Income and Money Market
The fixed-income market recorded varied movements during the week, as short-term funding rates and most NTB and FGN Bond yields declined. In the NTB market, the 91-day yield rose by 0.11% to 17.64%, while the 182-day and 364-day yields fell by 0.09% and 0.29% to 17.80% and 18.33%, respectively. Similarly, FGN Bond yields declined across the 3-year, 5-year and 7-year tenors by 0.51%, 0.20% and 0.01% to 15.97%, 16.80% and 16.88%, respectively. However, the 10-year yield increased slightly by 0.03% to 17.03%. Meanwhile, the Overnight (O/N) rate declined by 0.04% to 20.34%, while the Open Repo Rate (OPR) remained unchanged at 20.00%, indicating broadly stable short-term funding conditions during the week.
Outlook:
Equity Market
The Nigerian equities market may remain sensitive to profit-taking and sector-specific movements this week. However, moderating inflation and expectations of lower fixed-income yields could improve equities’ appeal to investors. Investors are likely to focus on third-quarter earnings, dividend prospects and company-specific developments when making investment decisions. Banking and industrial stocks may attract attention, while profit-taking could limit broader market gains.
Fixed Income Market
The Nigerian fixed-income market is expected to maintain investor interest this week as yields ease across most government bond maturities. Lower inflation could support bond prices and encourage investors to increase exposure to longer-tenor securities. However, the Federal Government’s planned ₦5.75tn in FGN Bond issuance in Q4 could limit further yield declines, as the increased supply of government securities may place upward pressure on yields. Investors will monitor auction results and liquidity conditions for direction this week.