africaprudential.com
October 27, 2026/CSL Update
Data published by the Nigerian Exchange Limited (NGX) showed that total transactions on the domestic bourse increased by 43.1% month-on-month (m/m) to ₦1.8 trillion in September 2026, from ₦1.3 trillion in August 2026. Compared with ₦1.6 trillion recorded in September 2025, total market turnover increased by 12.0% year-on-year (y/y).
The month-on-month growth was primarily driven by an improvement in domestic transactions, which rose by 34.6% to ₦1.6 trillion from ₦1.2 trillion in the previous month. Domestic investors accounted for 89.5% of total turnover, although their share declined from 95.1% in August, reflecting a modest recovery in foreign participation. A breakdown of domestic transactions showed that institutional investor activity increased to ₦1.0 trillion from ₦654.6 billion, while retail transactions rose to ₦619.8 billion from ₦552.9 billion. The improvement across both segments indicates broad-based growth in domestic trading activity.
Foreign Portfolio Investment (FPI) activity also strengthened in September, with total foreign transactions rising by 208.1% month-on-month (m/m) to ₦191.1 billion from ₦62.0 billion in August. Consequently, foreign investors’ share of total market turnover increased to 10.5% from 4.9% in the preceding month. The increase reflected higher activity on both sides of the market, as foreign inflows rose by 249.5% to ₦92.5 billion from ₦26.5 billion, while outflows increased by 177.3% to ₦98.6 billion from ₦35.6 billion. Notably, foreign outflows exceeded inflows by ₦6.1 billion, suggesting that the increase in foreign participation did not translate
into net foreign buying during the month.
Year-to-date (YTD), total market turnover reached ₦15.1 trillion, significantly higher than the ₦8.5 trillion recorded over the corresponding period of 2025. Domestic investors remained the primary drivers of market activity, accounting for ₦13.5 trillion, or approximately 89.7% of total turnover, compared with ₦6.7 trillion, or 78.4%, in the corresponding period of 2025.
In contrast, foreign transactions amounted to approximately ₦1.5 trillion, representing 10.3% of total turnover, compared with ₦1.8 trillion, or 21.6%, in the same period last year. This divergence highlights the growing importance of domestic capital in sustaining market activity, despite a decline in the relative contribution of foreign investors.
Despite intermittent profit-taking and episodes of heightened volatility, the Nigerian equities market has remained resilient in 2026, supported by robust corporate earnings, improving macroeconomic conditions and ongoing policy reforms. Looking ahead, we maintain a constructive outlook, as sustained earnings growth, greater macroeconomic stability, continued capital market reforms and sustained domestic investor participation are expected to support market liquidity, investor sentiment and equity valuations.
A recovery in foreign investor confidence could provide additional support to market activity. Nevertheless, geopolitical tensions, persistent inflationary pressures, pre-election uncertainty and tighter global financial conditions remain key downside risks that could weigh on investor sentiment and foreign capital flows.