The domestic bourse closed the week on a positive note, as increased bargain hunting in DANGCEM (+27.8%), ACCESSCORP (+7.9%), MTNN (+3.0%), UBA (+3.2%) and ARADEL (+2.5%) drove the All-Share Index higher by 2.8% w/w to 254,299.49 points
October 30, 2026/Cordros Report
Global
According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), the US economy expanded at an annualised rate of 3.4% q/q in Q3-26 (Q2-26: +2.2% q/q), and above market expectations of +3.2%. The acceleration reflected stronger investment, a rebound in government spending, and resilient consumer spending, partly offsetting weaker net exports. More specifically, government spending rose by 5.3% q/q (Q2-26: -0.1% q/q). Federal spending surged by 15.8% q/q (Q2-26: -2.4% q/q), as higher defence (+11.7% q/q vs Q2-26: +5.3% q/q) and non-defence (+22.2% q/q vs Q2-26: -12.7% q/q) outlays outweighed a marginal contraction in state & local government spending (-0.1% q/q vs Q2-26: +1.2% q/q). At the same time, investment growth accelerated to 19.4% q/q (Q2-26: +4.6% q/q), supported by inventory accumulation and stronger fixed investment (+9.4% q/q vs Q2-26: +7.7% q/q). Breaking it down, non-residential investment growth strengthened to 12.7% q/q (Q2-26: +9.0%), supported by equipment spending (+20.9% q/q vs Q2-26: +13.4% q/q), particularly in computers and peripheral equipment. By contrast, residential investment contracted by 3.3% q/q (Q2-26: +2.8%). Meanwhile, consumer spending growth held steady at +3.8% q/q (Q2-26: +3.8% q/q). Services expenditure grew by +4.1% q/q (Q2-26: +3.4% q/q), particularly in healthcare and food services, while goods spending growth slowed to +3.0% q/q (Q2-26: +4.5% q/q). On a year-on-year basis, real GDP expanded by 2.1% (Q2-26: +2.2% y/y). Looking ahead, we expect growth to remain firm, supported by continued investment in AI-related infrastructure and resilient services consumption. Although elevated energy prices and borrowing costs could weigh on household spending and housing activity, we expect business investment to remain a key support for growth. Accordingly, the IMF maintained its US growth forecast at +2.3% y/y for 2026E (2025FY: +2.3% y/y).
At its seventh meeting of the year, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted by a 10–2 to maintain the federal funds target range at 3.75%-4.00%, in line with market expectations. The Committee noted that economic activity was expanding at a strong pace, with resilient domestic spending, strong productivity growth and robust capital investment. The Committee also noted that job gains had kept pace with workforce growth, while unemployment had changed little. However, inflation remained elevated, and the Committee said that further information would help them determine the appropriate policy stance to return inflation to +2.0% y/y target. The Fed Chair Kevin Warsh emphasised the Committee’s continued focus on price stability, amid persistent inflation and relatively stable labour market conditions. He also noted that financial and credit conditions had tightened following the Fed’s 25bps rate hike in September. Most notably, Warsh also announced plans for a dedicated review of the Fed’s monetary policy strategy in 2027. Looking ahead, we expect resilient domestic demand, tariff-related cost pressures and elevated oil prices to sustain inflationary pressures. A stable labour market conditions could also strengthen the case for further moentary tightening. Accordingly, we expect the Fed to raise the federal funds target range by 25bps to 4.00%-4.25% at its 8-9 December meeting, unless a material deterioration in labour market conditions or a change in the inflation outlook alters the policy balance. This view is consistent with market pricing, with the CME FedWatch Tool indicating a 72.1% probability of a hike.
Global Markets
Global equities traded on a broadly negative note this week, as disappointing earnings from major technology companies reignited concerns over the scale and returns of AI-related spending, triggering a selloff in technology and semiconductor names. Market participants also assessed policy decisions from the US Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan, all of which held their benchmark rates steady. At the time of writing, major US indices (DJIA: +0.4%; S&P 500: -0.5%; NASDAQ: -0.7%) were mixed, as a rotation into defensive sectors lifted the DJIA, while the S&P 500 and NASDAQ were dragged by weak results from Alphabet, Amazon and Intel. Meanwhile, European equities (STOXX Europe 600: -1.4%; FTSE 100: -1.8%) declined, pressured by spillovers from the global technology selloff. Elsewhere, Asian markets (SSE: -0.7%; Nikkei 225: -4.0%) declined, as Chinese equities fell on weakness in technology stocks, while Japanese equities tumbled on heavy losses in AI and semiconductor names, led by Fujitsu and Murata Manufacturing. Finally, the Emerging Market (MSCI EM: -2.6%) index declined on losses in Brazil (-17.1%) and China (-2.5%), while the Frontier Market (MSCI FM: +0.4%) index advanced on gains in Kuwait (+1.9%) and Kazakhstan (+0.9%).
Domestic Economy
According to the Nigerian Exchange’s (NGX) Domestic and Foreign Portfolio Investment Report, total equity market transactions increased by 43.1% m/m to NGN1.82 trillion in September (August: NGN1.27 trillion). The performance was primarily driven by an increase in transactions from the domestic (89.5% of gross transactions) and foreign investors (10.5% of gross transactions). Specifically, transactions from domestic investors rose by 34.6% m/m to NGN1.63 trillion (August: NGN1.21 trillion). Institutional and retail transactions increased by 53.6% m/m and 12.1% m/m, respectively. Foreign transactions rose by 208.1% m/m to NGN191.14 billion in September (August: NGN62.03 billion), the highest level since April 2026. Overall, the market recorded net outflows of NGN1.10 billion, reversing net inflows of NGN15.08 billion in August. The net foreign outflows of NGN6.10 billion more than offset net domestic inflows of NGN5.00 billion. Looking ahead, we expect domestic investors to continue accounting for the bulk of market turnover. Although the September reduction in monetary policy rate by 350bps to 23.0% could encourage portfolio reallocation towards equities, still elevated fixed income yields may limit the scale of this shift.
Based on data from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), Nigeria’s goods trade surplus widened by 109.5% y/y to USD15.88 billion in 7M-26 (7M-25: USD7.58 billion). The wider surplus reflected higher exports and lower imports. Specifically, total exports increased by 21.0% y/y to USD41.95 billion (7M-25: USD34.67 billion), while imports declined by 3.8% y/y to USD26.07 billion (7M-25: USD27.09 billion). We attribute much of the increase in export receipts to higher crude oil prices, with the 7M-26 average rising to USD90.60/barrel (vs 7M-25 average: USD71.79/barrel). Average crude oil production (7M-26: 1.66mb/d) remained broadly unchanged from the same period, suggesting that higher price, rather than increased production, were the main driver of the rise in crude oil receipts. Refined petroleum product exports also increased, supported by the ramp up in domestic refining activity. Meanwhile, the decline in total imports primarily reflects lower petroleum product imports due to greater reliance on domestic refining output, which more than offset the increase in non-oil imports. Looking ahead, we expect the trade surplus to remain elevated, supported by export earnings and relatively subdued import growth. Specifically, elevated oil prices and higher refined petroleum product exports should bolster export receipts in 2026, assuming these conditions persist through year-end. On the import side, improved FX liquidity could support non-oil imports, although weak domestic purchasing power may limit the recovery in demand. Overall, we project the trade surplus to widen to USD37.18 billion in 2026E (2025FY: USD14.51 billion).
Capital Markets
Equities
The domestic bourse closed the week on a positive note, as increased bargain hunting in DANGCEM (+27.8%), ACCESSCORP (+7.9%), MTNN (+3.0%), UBA (+3.2%) and ARADEL (+2.5%) drove the All-Share Index higher by 2.8% w/w to 254,299.49 points, lifting the month-to-date and year-to-date returns to +1.1% and +63.3%, respectively. On market activity, trading volume and value increased by 331.2% w/w and 479.5% w/w, respectively. Sectoral performance was mixed, as the Industrial Goods (+14.6%) and Oil & Gas (+0.8%) indices closed higher, while the Banking (-3.4%) and Insurance (-2.1%) indices closed lower. The Consumer Goods index closed flat.
Looking ahead, we expect cautious trading as investors digest the earnings releases and corporate disclosures, including dividend declarations, driving stock-specific activity and selective repositioning across counters.
Money Market and Fixed Income
Money Market
The OVN rate expanded by 2bps w/w to 20.4%, despite improved system liquidity during the week, as inflows from OMO maturities (NGN2.13 trillion) and net NTB maturities (NGN320.95 billion) exceeded outflows from OMO PMA debits (NGN244.93 billion). Meanwhile, average system liquidity increased to a net long position of NGN8.05 trillion from NGN6.66 trillion in the previous week, reflecting higher average SDF balances at the CBN amid relatively low issuance volumes at the PMAs during the week.
System liquidity should remain supportive next week, underpinned by expected inflows of NGN2.02 trillion from OMO maturities. However, OMO issuances could moderate system liquidity by mopping up some of the excess liquidity in the system.
Treasury Bills
The Treasury bills secondary market traded on a mixed note as the average yield across all instruments expanded by 3bps to 18.2%. By segment, average NTB secondary market yields contracted by 3bps to 17.9%, as unmet demand at Wednesday’s (28th October) NTB PMA filtered into the secondary market. Meanwhile, average yields in the OMO secondary market expanded by 15bps to 18.7%, due to pockets of selling activities across the curve. At the NTB PMA on Wednesday (28th October), the DMO offered NGN800.00 billion across tenors, with total demand reaching NGN1.91 trillion; the DMO ultimately allotted NGN71.16 billion. Stop rates contracted by 10bps, 1bp and 10bps to 15.40%, 15.79% and 15.80% for the 91-, 182- and 364-day tenors, respectively. At the OMO PMA conducted on Thursday (29th October), the CBN offered NGN1.00 trillion in bills, attracting NGN2.28 trillion in demand, and ultimately allotted NGN244.93 billion. Stop rates settled at 17.69% and 17.63% for the 124D and 138D tenors, respectively.
Looking ahead, we expect the Treasury bills secondary market to retain a broadly bullish bias, supported by resilient domestic demand amid ample system liquidity.
Bonds
The FGN bond secondary market traded on a bearish note, with the average yield across instruments widening by 8bps to 16.4%, as limited offshore participation provided little support against sustained domestic selling pressure. Across the benchmark curve, the average yield expanded at the short (+21bps) and long (+12bps) ends reflecting selloffs of the MAR-2027 (+48bps) and APR-2037 (+17bps) bonds, respectively, while it contracted at the mid (-4bps) segment due to demand for the MAY-2029 (-23bps) bond.
Over the medium term, the FG’s planned increase in government borrowings is likely to sustain upward pressure on bond yields. However, the ongoing monetary easing cycle, sustained foreign portfolio inflows, and continued disinflation should moderate the pace of yield increases.
Foreign Exchange
The naira appreciated by 2.9% w/w to NGN1,347.05/USD, as the CBN’s USD950 million intervention improved FX supply, helping to moderate demand pressures. Meanwhile, gross external reserves increased by USD93.57 million to USD55.24 billion (29th October 2026). In the forwards market, the naira appreciated in the 1-month (+2.2% to NGN1,367.40/USD), 3-month (+2.1% to NGN1,403.07/USD), 6-month (+2.2% to NGN1,453.23/USD), and 1-year (+2.2% to NGN1,548.16/USD) contracts.
We expect the naira to remain broadly stable around current levels in the near term, supported by foreign reserves position and the continued current account surplus. However, downside risks remain from lower domestic yields, which could reduce the relative attractiveness of naira denominated assets, and tighter global financial conditions, which could weigh on foreign portfolio flows.