November 2, 2026/InvestmentOne Report
Seplat delivered a strong 9M:2026 result: higher realised prices, a 6.90% rise in production and a lower effective tax rate lifted profit after tax by 142.47% to NGN355.55bn. Revenue was up by 12.51% to NGN3.78trn. Q3 production rose 4.52% QoQ to 155.80kboepd, but Q3 profit after tax fell 24.80% QoQ to NGN130.08bn as the effective tax rate rose to 76.45%.
We would be paying close attention to the Yoho restart, Oso-BRT Phase 1 gas from early 2027, SEPNU completion and the transaction dividend, the 2027 offshore drilling campaign and a second exploration well in 2027 after the Aku-01 discovery (157Bcf gas and 19MMbbls oil in place, mid-case).
Upside risks to our SELL call are higher oil prices, a change in NUPRC’s offshore PIA position, larger special dividends and further stake-building by the Heirs group (21.07%). Downside risks to the shares are project delays, pipeline outages and higher cash taxes. We downgrade to SELL.
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