November 2, 2026/United Capital Report
Global Markets
United States
The US Federal Reserve (Fed) maintained the federal funds rate at 3.75%–4.00% at its October 2026 meeting, in line with expectations. This followed a 0.25% increase in September, the first since 2023. The Fed noted that economic activity remains strong, supported by resilient domestic spending, while labour market conditions remain stable. However, inflation remains elevated, with geopolitical developments adding to uncertainty. Policymakers emphasised the need for further economic data to guide future decisions and support a return to the 2% inflation target.
Euro Area
The European Central Bank (ECB) maintained its key interest rates at its October 2026 meeting, in line with expectations. The main refinancing rate remained at 2.65%, while the deposit facility rate held at 2.50%. The ECB warned that elevated energy prices could fuel inflation and weigh on economic activity, particularly if indirect price pressures intensify. However, underlying inflation remains broadly stable, with limited wage pressures. Although policymakers provided no clear guidance on future rate decisions, President Christine Lagarde confirmed that a rate increase was discussed but unanimously rejected.
Asia
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) maintained its short-term policy rate at 1.25% in an 8-1 vote at its October meeting, in line with expectations. This followed two consecutive 0.25% rate increases in June and September, bringing borrowing costs to highest levels since April 1995. Policymakers signalled possible further increases, citing underlying inflation reaching the 2% target for the first time since 2013. Persistent labour shortages and steady wage growth continue to support price pressures. In its quarterly outlook, the BoJ retained its FY2026 inflation forecast at 2.5% but raised its growth projection to 0.7% from 0.6%. For FY2027, it raised its inflation forecast to 2.6% from 2.4%, while lowering its growth projection to 0.7% from 0.8%.
Oil Markets
Brent crude oil price rose by 1.97% week-on-week to US$110.80/b, while Bonny Light declined by 3.17% to US$119.23/b. Despite the divergent weekly movements, both benchmarks remained elevated, with Brent and Bonny Light prices up 82.09% and 88.00% year-to-date, respectively.
Outlook
Global markets are expected to remain sensitive to economic data, central bank decisions and political developments this week. Investors will monitor the US midterm elections, October employment report and major technology earnings for signals on economic growth and corporate profitability. Attention will also focus on the Reserve Bank of Australia, Bank of England and Sweden’s Riksbank, with potential rate increases shaping global monetary policy expectations. Meanwhile, developments in Brazil and Indonesia could influence emerging-market sentiment, while inflation concerns and geopolitical risks may sustain volatility across global financial markets.
Domestic Economy
Nigeria’s portfolio investment inflows increased by 17.6% quarter-on-quarter to US$7.09bn in Q2 2026, from US$6.03bn in Q1. According to the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), the growth was driven by stronger inflows into long-term general government debt securities. Portfolio investment remained the largest source accounting for approximately 65% of the US$10.84bn recorded during the quarter. Meanwhile, direct investment rose by 11.7% to US$1.15bn, while other investment more than doubled to US$2.75bn.
Equity Market
The Nigerian equities market closed the week higher, with the NGX All-Share Index (NGX-ASI) gaining 2.86% week-on-week to 254,299.49 points. Consequently, the market’s year-to-date return increased to 63.42%. Sector performance was varied, with the Industrial Goods Index leading gains at 14.58%, followed by Oil/Gas at 0.82%. However, the Banking, Insurance and Consumer Goods Indices declined by 3.42%, 2.13% and 0.02%, respectively.
Fixed Income and Money Market
The fixed-income market recorded a largely positive performance during the week, as yields declined across most Treasury bills and FGN Bonds. In the NTB market, the 91-day, 182-day and 364-day yields fell by 0.09%, 0.06% and 0.06% to 17.55%, 17.74% and 18.27%, respectively. Similarly, FGN Bond yields declined across the 3-year, 5-year and 10-year tenors by 0.31%, 0.18% and 0.01% to 15.66%, 16.62% and 17.02%, respectively. However, the 7-year yield increased slightly by 0.03% to 16.91%. Meanwhile, the Overnight (O/N) rate rose marginally by 0.04% to 20.38%, while the Open Repo Rate (OPR) remained unchanged at 20.00%, indicating broadly stable short-term funding conditions.
Outlook:
Equity Market
Nigeria’s equity market is expected to sustain positive momentum this week, supported by improved investor sentiment and bargain-hunting across fundamentally strong stocks. Investors are likely to monitor corporate earnings releases, dividend announcements and portfolio repositioning for further market direction. However, profit-taking in large-cap stocks and continued volatility across banking equities could limit broader market gains. Recent trading has highlighted selective buying interest, despite pressure on market breadth. We expect investors to favour stocks with strong earnings prospects, attractive dividend yields and sound fundamentals, while monitoring developments in the fixed-income market. Lower yields could further improve the relative appeal of equities.
Fixed Income Market
Nigeria’s fixed-income market is expected to be positive this week, supported by elevated system liquidity and sustained demand for government securities. The latest Treasury bills auction recorded strong demand, particularly at the long end, with the 364-day stop rate declining by 10bps to 15.80%. We expect Treasury bill yields to remain biased downward, supported by ample liquidity and investors’ search for attractive yields. However, further OMO issuances by the CBN could absorb excess liquidity and moderate the pace of yield compression. In the bond market, demand may remain tilted toward longer-dated instruments as investors position for a lower interest-rate environment. Nonetheless, the Federal Government’s financing requirements and continued liquidity-management operations by the CBN could limit the extent of further yield declines.