November 3, 2026/CSL Report
October 2026 in retrospect
- The equities market gained in October, rising 1.2% month-on-month (m/m) to close at 254,299.49 points. However, the modest gain masked broad-based profit-taking across most major sectors, as the strong rally in Industrial Goods stocks offset declines across the Banking, Insurance, Oil and Gas, and Consumer Goods sectors. The Industrial Goods Index was the lone gainer, advancing 16.8% m/m, supported by Dangote Cement (+33.1%). Meanwhile, the Banking Index led the laggards, declining 10.4% m/m. Consequently, the market’s year-to-date (YTD) return increased to approximately 63.4% in October from 61.4% in September.
- Market breadth declined significantly in October, falling to 0.41x from 0.88x in September, as 29 stocks advanced while 71 declined, compared to the previous month’s 49 advancers and 56 decliners. The deterioration in market breadth highlights the narrowing of buying interest and suggests that investors increasingly favoured selected large-cap stocks amid profit-taking across the broader market.
- Trading activity was mixed, as average daily volume traded declined by 6.5% m/m to approximately 733.3 million units, while average daily value traded increased by 40.9% m/m to approximately ₦56.0 billion. The divergence suggests that trading activity was concentrated in relatively large-value transactions, potentially reflecting increased investor interest in selected large-cap counters.
- Overall, October trading was characterised by a narrow market rally, as strong gains in Industrial Goods stocks offset broad-based profit-taking across other major sectors. The decline in average traded volume alongside the increase in average traded value suggests a concentration of activity in relatively large-value transactions. The macroeconomic backdrop was also supportive, as headline inflation eased to 14.6% y/y in September, improving the inflation-adjusted return outlook and potentially supporting investor interest in equities.
November 2026 market prospects
- The equities market is expected to record a modest gain in November, supported by continued Q3 2026 earnings releases and dividend-related catalysts. We expect investors to focus on companies with resilient earnings growth, improving margins and attractive dividend prospects, with positive earnings surprises likely to stimulate renewed buying interest. However, the impact of the earnings season is likely to remain selective, given the divergence in corporate performance across sectors.
- The accommodative monetary environment is expected to remain supportive of equities, as lower interest rates and moderating inflation improve the relative attractiveness of risk assets. We expect investors to continue reassessing portfolio allocations in favour of equities, particularly companies with strong earnings visibility and attractive valuations.
- The anticipated commencement of secondary market trading of Dangote Refinery could provide an additional catalyst for market activity in November, following the successful conclusion of its IPO.
- Overall, we expect the NGX to record a modest gain in November, supported by continued Q3 earnings releases, dividend-related buying interest, an accommodative monetary environment and the anticipated listing of Dangote Refinery. However, the market’s elevated YTD return and persistent profit-taking suggest that gains are likely to remain selective, with intermittent volatility limiting the scope for a broad-based rally.
November 2026 Top 10 Stock Picks
Click here to download full report: CSL Nigeria Monthly Stock Picks – November 2026