The Nigerian domestic market closed the week on a negative note, as sustained profit-taking across bellwether tickers dragged the benchmark index lower. Precisely, losses in DANGCEM (-8.5%), ARADEL (-10.0%), BUAFOODS (-8.0%), HBMNG (-9.7%) and FIRSTHOLDCO (-7.9%) dragged the All-Share Index lower by 2.1% w/w to 248,868.25 points.
November 6, 2026/Cordros Report
Global
According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, US non-farm payrolls increased by 165,000 in October, up from a revised 60,000 increase in September and significantly above market expectations of +65,000. The stronger print, alongside upward revisions to previous months, points to firmer labour demand following September’s slowdown. More specifically, employment gains were concentrated in professional and business services (+70,000), healthcare (+42,000) and transportation & warehousing (+25,000). Manufacturing employment also increased by 19,000, while most other major sectors showed little change. However, the concentration of gains suggests that the improvement in hiring remains uneven across sectors. Elsewhere, the unemployment rate eased to 4.1% (September: 4.2%), while the labour force participation rate edged higher to 61.9% (September: 61.8%), suggesting that the decline in unemployment was accompanied by a modest improvement in labour force engagement. Looking ahead, we expect the US labour market to remain resilient, supported by firm consumer spending, continued business investment and relatively low layoffs. However, high operating costs and elevated borrowing rates could keep firms cautious about hiring.
According to Eurostat’s estimates, Eurozone headline inflation accelerated to 4.0% y/y in October (September: +3.8% y/y), its highest level since September 2023 and in line with market expectations. The increase reflected higher food and services inflation, alongside further acceleration in energy price pressures amid continued geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. More specifically, food inflation rose to 1.6% y/y (September: +1.3% y/y), reflecting higher inflation in both unprocessed (4.6% y/y vs September: +4.0% y/y) and processed food (0.5% y/y vs September: +0.4% y/y). Services inflation also accelerated, rising to 3.3% y/y (September: +3.2% y/y), indicating that price pressures remained firm across the sector. Meanwhile, energy inflation increased to 20.8% y/y (September: +18.9% y/y), its highest level since December 2022. The increase highlights the region’s exposure to movements in imported energy prices and potential supply disruptions. Core inflation, which excludes food and energy prices, remained unchanged at 2.5% y/y (September: +2.5% y/y), suggesting that underlying price pressures have yet to accelerate materially despite the increase in headline inflation. Looking ahead, we expect inflationary pressures to remain elevated as high energy costs continue to pose upside risks to food, production and distribution costs, while stronger winter heating demand could add to energy price pressures. However, a sustained decline in global energy prices could moderate further increases in energy inflation, although the extent of the pass through will depend on the duration and scale of price adjustment. Accordingly, we expect the ECB to maintain a hawkish bias, with the possibility of further tightening at its 17 December meeting if energy driven inflationary pressures persist and begin to feed through more broadly.
Global Markets
Global equities traded on a broadly negative note this week, driven by a historic selloff in technology and AI-linked names. The selloff was triggered by the Democratic sweep of the US midterm elections, which stoked fears of tighter AI regulation and a slowdown in data centre spending. At the time of writing, major US indices (DJIA: -0.5%; S&P 500: -3.0%; NASDAQ: -4.4%) were poised to close the week lower, weighed down by heavy losses in semiconductor and AI-linked names, including Nvidia and AMD. Meanwhile, European equities (STOXX Europe 600: +1.3%; FTSE 100: +0.5%) advanced, supported by their lower technology exposure, despite the Bank of England’s decision to raise interest rates. Elsewhere, Asian markets were mixed, as Chinese equities (SSE: +1.6%) advanced, lifted by the central bank’s swap facility to fund share purchases and other government support measures, while Japanese equities (Nikkei 225: -9.1%) tumbled on the global technology selloff, led by heavy losses in SoftBank. Finally, the Emerging Market (MSCI EM: -1.5%) index declined on losses in Taiwan (-12.2%) and South Korea (-11.6%), while the Frontier Market (MSCI FM: +1.0%) index advanced on gains in Morocco (+4.7%) and Kenya (+1.5%).
Domestic Economy
According to the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), the composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rose to 53.2 points in October (September: 53.0 points), extending the period of overall private sector expansion to five consecutive months. The expansion was primarily supported by stronger activity in the industry and agriculture sectors, while services remained in expansion but moderated slightly. Specifically, the industry sector PMI rose to 52.6 points (September: 52.0 points), marking a third consecutive month of expansion. The improvement was supported by stronger output, new orders, and employment, alongside an increase in raw material inventories. Stronger readings in cement, motor vehicles & assembly and wood products were partly offset by weaker activity in mining & quarrying, where the crude petroleum & natural gas subsector slipped into contraction. The services PMI eased to 52.7 points (September: 53.2 points) but remained in expansion for a fourth consecutive month. The output and employment indices increased, while the new orders and inventories softened. The moderation was accompanied by weaker readings in arts, entertainment & recreation, human health & social services and trade. These declines were partly offset by improvements in professional, scientific & technical services, finance & insurance and educational services. The agriculture PMI rose to 54.7 points (September: 53.1 points), remaining above the 50-point threshold for a twenty seventh consecutive month. The improvement was supported by stronger readings in general farming activities, new orders, employment and inventories. Looking ahead, we expect private sector activity to remain in expansion through Q4-26. The main harvest season, which typically runs from September to November, should support agricultural output and food availability, while increased consumer spending and business activity ahead of the festive season are likely to produce additional support. However, elevated operating costs and continued pressure on household purchasing power could temper the pace of expansion.
According to the data from FMDQ, total inflows into the Nigerian Foreign Exchange Market (NFEM) rose by 61.7% m/m to USD8.28 billion in October (September: USD5.12 billion). The increase was driven primarily by stronger domestic inflows, while foreign inflows recorded a more modest increase. Domestic and foreign sources accounted for 61.7% and 38.3% of total October inflows, respectively. Specifically, domestic FX inflows more than doubled, increasing by 148.1% m/m to USD5.11 billion in October (September: USD2.06 billion). The increase reflected higher inflows from the CBN (+421.7% m/m), individuals (+74.0% m/m), exporters/importers (+71.5% m/m) and non-bank corporates (+55.5% m/m). Meanwhile, the NFEM recorded net foreign outflows of USD1.41 billion in October (compared with net foreign inflows of USD1.03 billion in September). This shift may have increased pressure on the supply-demand balance in the market, potentially requiring greater CBN intervention to support liquidity and limit exchange rate volatility. Despite the net foreign outflows, gross foreign FX inflows increased by 3.5% m/m to USD3.17 billion (September: USD3.06 billion). Specifically, higher inflows from foreign portfolio investors (+3.4% m/m) and foreign direct investment (+227.3% m/m) more than offset the 11.8% m/m decline in inflows from the other corporates. In the near term, we expect FX liquidity to remain robust, underpinned by sustained foreign investor interest in naira-denominated assets and yields that remain attractive despite their recent moderation. These factors should continue to support portfolio inflows, although geopolitical uncertainty and shifts in global risk sentiment could lead to intermittent volatility in foreign investment inflows. Meanwhile, we expect the CBN to remain active in the FX market, intervening as necessary to address temporary supply-demand imbalances, ease exchange rate pressures, and preserve relative stability in the naira.
Capital Markets
Equities
The Nigerian domestic market closed the week on a negative note, as sustained profit-taking across bellwether tickers dragged the benchmark index lower. Precisely, losses in DANGCEM (-8.5%), ARADEL (-10.0%), BUAFOODS (-8.0%), HBMNG (-9.7%) and FIRSTHOLDCO (-7.9%) dragged the All-Share Index lower by 2.1% w/w to 248,868.25 points. As a result, the month-to-date and year-to-date returns moderated to -0.9% and +59.9%, respectively. On market activity, trading volume and value declined by 64.2% w/w and 68.7% w/w, respectively. Sectoral performance was broadly negative, as the Industrial Goods (-4.4%), Oil & Gas (-3.7%), Banking (-2.5%) and Consumer Goods (-1.4%) indices closed lower, while the Insurance index closed flat.
In the coming week, we expect buying interest to improve modestly, supported by increased bargain-hunting activity as investors begin to reposition their portfolios following the conclusion of the 9M-26 earnings season. Investor interest is likely to remain concentrated in fundamentally sound stocks and companies with attractive corporate actions.
Money Market and Fixed Income
Money Market
The OVN rate declined by 18bps w/w to 20.2%, despite outflow from OMO PMA debits (NGN5.72 trillion) offsetting inflows from OMO maturities (NGN2.02 trillion). Meanwhile, average system liquidity declined to a net long position of NGN7.20 trillion from NGN8.05 trillion in the previous week, reflecting the impact of a CBN mop up operation.
System liquidity is expected to remain elevated next week, driven by anticipated inflows of NGN2.30 trillion from OMO maturities. However, potential OMO mop-up operations could moderate the liquidity surplus.
Treasury Bills
The Treasury bills secondary market traded bullishly, with the average yield across all instruments contracting by 2bps to 18.2%. By segment, average NTB secondary market yields contracted by 2bps to 17.9%, as unmet demand at Wednesday’s NTB PMA filtered into the secondary market. Similarly, average yields in the OMO secondary market fell 6bps to 18.6% as unmet bids at Tuesday’s OMO PMA filtered into the secondary market. At the NTB PMA on Wednesday (4th November), the DMO offered NGN800.00 billion across tenors, with total demand reaching NGN2.05 trillion; the DMO ultimately allotted NGN509.40 billion. Stop rates remained unchanged at 15.40%, 15.79% and 15.80% for the 91-, 182- and 364-day tenors, respectively. At Tuesday’s (3rd November) OMO auction, the CBN offered NGN1.50 trillion in bills, attracting NGN3.52 trillion in demand and ultimately allotting NGN2.95 trillion. Stop rates settled at 17.77%, 17.71% and 17.67% for the 119D, 126D and 133D tenors, respectively. CBN conducted another OMO auction on Friday (6th November), offering NGN1.50 trillion in bills, attracting NGN5.74 trillion in demand and ultimately allotting NGN2.72 trillion. Stop rates settled at 17.25%, 16.54% and 15.74% for the 179D, 270D and 361D bills, respectively.
Looking ahead, we expect the Treasury bills secondary market to retain a broadly bullish bias, supported by resilient domestic demand amid ample system liquidity.
Bonds
The FGN bond secondary market traded on a quiet note, albeit with a bullish tilt, as the average yield across instruments contracted by 3bps to 16.3%, amid renewed demand from investors. Across the benchmark curve, the average yield expanded at the short (+9bps) end due to selloffs of the MAR-2027 (+36bps) bond but contracted at the mid (-4bps) and long (-6bps) segments reflecting demand for the JUN-2032 (-22bps) and JUN-2038 (-21bps) bonds, respectively.
Over the medium term, the planned increase in FG borrowing is likely to sustain upward pressure on yields. However, the ongoing monetary easing cycle, sustained foreign portfolio inflows, and continued disinflation should moderate the pace of yield increases.
Foreign Exchange
The naira depreciated marginally by 0.1% w/w to NGN1,349.00/USD, despite the CBN’s USD50.00 million intervention. Meanwhile, gross external reserves declined by USD106.87 million to USD55.13 billion (5th November 2026). In the forwards market, the naira depreciated on the 1-month (-0.2% to NGN1,370.19/USD), 3-month (-0.2% to NGN1,405.78/USD), 6-month (-0.2% to NGN1,455.88/USD), and 1-year (-0.6% to NGN1,557.65/USD) contracts.
We expect the naira to remain broadly stable around current levels in the near term, supported by the foreign reserves position and the continued current account surplus. However, risks to naira stability remain, particularly if lower domestic yields reduce the relative attractiveness of naira denominated assets or tighter global financial conditions weigh on foreign portfolio flows.