November 9, 2026/United Capital Report
Global Markets
United States
The US Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) declined to 55.9 points in October 2026 from 58.4 points in September, its lowest level in three months, reflecting slower growth across manufacturing and services. Nevertheless, new business continued to expand, supported by strong services demand, while employment growth remained positive. Meanwhile, cost pressures remained elevated, with selling prices rising at their fastest pace since August 2022. Business confidence also weakened to its lowest level since May. Overall, the data indicate continued private-sector expansion, albeit at a slower pace, amid persistent inflationary pressures and weakening business confidence.
Euro Area
Euro Area inflation accelerated to 4.0% in October 2026 from 3.8% in September, its highest level since September 2023 and above the European Central Bank’s (ECB) 2.0% target. The increase was driven largely by energy inflation, which surged to 20.8% amid continued Middle East tensions and higher energy prices. Services and unprocessed food inflation also rose to 3.3% and 4.6%, respectively, while core inflation remained unchanged at 2.5%. Across major economies, inflation increased in France, Italy and the Netherlands but eased in Germany and Spain.
Asia
Japan’s S&P Global Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) eased to 52.1 points in October 2026 from 52.3 points in September, its lowest reading since May, but marking the 19th consecutive month of private-sector expansion. Growth in services activity accelerated slightly, offsetting slower manufacturing output growth, while new orders maintained September’s pace. Export demand continued to support sales, although new export business growth slowed to a four-month low. Meanwhile, employment growth weakened to its slowest pace in a year, while business confidence declined to a three-month low. Input costs remained elevated, although output price inflation eased to a four-month low, indicating some moderation in selling price pressures.
Oil Markets
Brent crude oil price declined by 14.44% week-on-week to US$98.29/b, while Bonny Light fell by 10.36% to US$106.90/b. Despite the weekly declines, both benchmarks remained elevated, with Brent and Bonny Light prices up 61.53% and 68.56% year-to-date, respectively.
Outlook
Global markets are expected to remain sensitive to economic data and geopolitical developments this week. Investors will closely monitor US October inflation figures, particularly the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI), for signals on future interest rate direction. In Europe, UK third-quarter GDP and Euro Area growth figures will provide insights into economic resilience. Meanwhile, China’s inflation data will offer further clues on domestic demand and global growth prospects. Technology stocks may face further pressure as investors reassess artificial intelligence valuations and spending prospects. However, lower Oil prices could ease inflation concerns and support broader market sentiment.
Domestic Economy
United Capital Research forecasts headline inflation to moderate to 14.01% in October 2026, from 14.63% in September, driven by lower food prices. However, rising energy costs and Naira depreciation remain key upside risks. If realised, this would be the lowest reading in 2026, strengthening prospects for single-digit inflation by mid-2027. The anticipated disinflation could create room for another rate cut at the CBN’s November 23–24 MPC meeting.
Equity Market
The Nigerian equities market closed the week lower, with the NGX All-Share Index (NGX-ASI) declining 2.13% week-on-week to 248,877.22 points. Consequently, the market’s year-to-date return moderated to 59.93%. Sector performance was broadly negative, with the Industrial Goods Index leading losses at 4.35%, followed by Oil/Gas at 3.72% and Banking at 2.45%. The Consumer Goods and Insurance Indices also declined by 1.41% and 0.03%, respectively.
Fixed Income and Money Market
The fixed-income market recorded a mixed performance during the week, as yields declined across selected Treasury bills and FGN Bonds. In the NTB market, the 91-day yield declined by 0.03% to 17.52%, while the 182-day and 364-day yields increased by 0.03% and 0.42% to 17.77% and 18.69%, respectively. Similarly, FGN Bond yields declined across the 3-year, 7-year and 10-year tenors by 0.01%, 0.11% and 0.16% to 15.65%, 16.80% and 16.86%, respectively. However, the 5-year yield rose by 0.18% to 16.80%. Meanwhile, the Overnight (O/N) rate declined by 0.20% to 20.18%, while the Open Repo Rate (OPR) remained unchanged at 20.00%, indicating relatively stable short-term funding conditions.
Outlook:
Equity Market
The Nigerian equities market is expected to recover this week, supported by bargain-hunting opportunities. The market’s strong 59.93% year-to-date return highlights sustained investor interest, while recent price corrections could attract fresh buying across fundamentally sound stocks. We expect renewed interest in fundamentally strong stocks, particularly in the Industrial Goods, Banking, Telecommunications and Oil/Gas sectors. Attractive valuations, corporate earnings and dividend prospects could further support investor participation. Additionally, declining fixed-income yields could improve equities’ relative attractiveness, encouraging portfolio reallocation towards stocks.
Fixed Income Market
The Nigerian fixed-income market is expected to sustain investor interest this week, supported by strong demand at the latest Treasury bills auction. We expect Treasury bills yields to remain relatively stable, supported by attractive market rates and sustained demand, particularly at the longer end of the curve. However, further liquidity withdrawals through Open Market Operations (OMO) auctions could moderate buying interest and limit yield declines. In the bond market, investors may sustain demand for longer-dated securities, positioning ahead of potential monetary easing and capital appreciation opportunities.