November 10, 2026/Cordros Report
We revise our 2026E estimates for MTN Nigeria Plc (MTNN) following its impressive 9M-26 earnings. Specifically, we raise our 2026E revenue growth forecast to 25.5% y/y (Prev. 24.0%), underpinned by a larger subscriber base across voice (97.27 million; net adds of 9.97 million), and data (59.27 million; net adds of 6.07 million), while retaining our blended ARPU forecast of NGN5,525.00 (+17.9% y/y). We also revise our EBITDA margin forecast upward to 57.9% (+517bps y/y | Prev.: +227bps y/y to 55.0%), reflecting the stronger revenue outlook alongside lower direct network operating and interconnect cost assumptions.
Consequently, we raise our EPS forecast to NGN82.96 (Prev.: NGN75.17). Reflecting these revisions, we lift our year-end target price by 5.1% to NGN1,084.92/s (Prev.: NGN1,031.91/s), implying a 29.6% upside from the current market price of NGN837.00/s and maintain our “BUY” rating. On shareholder returns, we raise our 2026E final DPS forecast to NGN48.00 (Prev.: NGN42.00), bringing total DPS to NGN74.00, with the final dividend alone implying a 5.7% yield (Total div yield: 8.8%). Based on our revised 2026E estimates, MTNN trades at 10.1x P/E and 5.2x EV/EBITDA, vs MEA peer averages of 13.7x and 5.8x, respectively.
Higher revenue and EBITDA margin forecasts lift earnings: We raise our 2026E revenue growth forecast to 25.5% y/y (Prev.: 24.0%), supported by higher subscriber assumptions across voice (97.27 million | Prev.: 95.13 million) and data (59.27 million | Prev.: 57.97 million), while retaining our blended ARPU growth forecast of 17.9% y/y to NGN5,525.00. Across key revenue lines, we forecast growth in data (+37.7% y/y | 58.6% of revenue), voice (+15.2% y/y | 32.6%), digital (+42.1% y/y | 2.2%) and other revenue (+23.1% y/y | 4.7%). Meanwhile, fintech revenue is expected to decline by 33.3% y/y (2.0% of revenue), a more moderate contraction than our previous forecast of 40.8%, reflecting the ongoing recovery of the airtime and data credit service following its Q2 suspension. On profitability, we revise our EBITDA margin forecast upward to 57.9% (+517bps y/y), as total expense growth of 12.0% y/y (Prev.: 18.2% y/y) remains well below revenue growth. Below the operating line, net finance cost is forecast to decline by 26.7% y/y, supported by lower leverage and higher finance income. Consequently, we raise our EPS forecast to NGN82.96 (+56.2% y/y | Prev. +41.6% y/y to NGN75.17), with our effective tax rate assumption unchanged at 34.0%.
Balance sheet resilience continues to strengthen: The Altman Z score, which assesses a company’s financial health and probability of distress using profitability, leverage, liquidity and operating efficiency metrics, is expected to improve to 4.78 in 2026E from 3.44 in 2025. The stronger score reflects improving profitability, lower leverage and a healthier capital position, pointing to increased balance sheet resilience and lower financial distress risk. In our view, this indicates MTNN’s capacity to meet financial obligations, fund network investment and sustain shareholder distributions, while retaining greater flexibility to absorb potential macroeconomic shocks.
Valuation: Our target price is NGN1,084.92/s, derived from a 60/40 blend of DCF and sector relative valuation estimates. Our DCF FV is derived from an equal blend of FCFF (NGN1,139.56/s) and FCFE (NGN1,088.25/s) estimates, assuming a 20.7% WACC, 23.1% CoE and 4.0% terminal growth rate. We applied the EV/EBITDA and P/E multiples for our multiples based fair value and derived a fair value of NGN946.38/s and NGN1,136.50/s based on MEA peer averages of 5.8x and 13.7x, respectively.