November 12, 2027/Coronation Update
Summary
We project headline inflation to ease to 13.59% y/y in October 2026, from 14.63% in September, while the month-on-month rate is expected to moderate to 0.02% from 0.06%. This would mark the fifth consecutive monthly decline in the annual rate, extending the disinflation trend that began in June 2026.
Our forecast implies a 104bps decline in headline inflation, supported by continued moderation in food prices, relative exchange-rate stability and a favourable base effect.
Food prices are expected to remain the main source of downward pressure on headline inflation, while core price pressures should also moderate, albeit at a slower pace, reflecting persistent transport, energy and other cost pressures.
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