The domestic bourse closed the week higher, as bargain hunting in DANGCEM (+9.6%), SEPLAT (+3.2%), HBMNG (+3.2%), TRANSPOWER (+5.7%) and ECOBANK (+6.9%) lifted the All-Share Index higher by 1.6% w/w to 252,749.81 points.
November 13, 2026/Cordros Report
Global
According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), US headline inflation eased to 0.4% m/m in October (September: +0.6% m/m), but remained above market expectations of 0.3% m/m. The BLS did not publish the annual headline inflation rate for October because the corresponding October 2025 data was unavailable due to the government shutdown during the period. The moderation in headline inflation was primarily driven by a slower increase in energy prices, even as food inflation accelerated. Energy inflation slowed to 0.7% m/m (September: +5.2% m/m), reflecting lower gasoline prices (+1.0% m/m vs September: +9.1% m/m) and fuel oil prices (+2.0% m/m vs September: +15.3% m/m). Meanwhile, food inflation increased by 0.5% m/m (September: 0.0% m/m). This reflected higher prices for food at home (+0.4% m/m vs September: -0.1% m/m) and food away from home (+0.5% m/m vs September: +0.2% m/m). Core inflation remained at +0.3% m/m for the third consecutive month, above market expectations of +0.2% m/m. The reading reflected continued price pressures in components such as new vehicles and medical care services. Looking ahead, inflation risks remain tilted to the upside, as renewed escalation in the Middle East conflict could trigger further energy price increases. From a monetary policy perspective, persistent core inflation and a resilient labour market strengthens the case for further tightening. Against this backdrop, we expect the Federal Reserve to raise its policy rate by 25bps at its next meeting. This is broadly consistent with market pricing, with the CME FedWatch Tool assigning a 100.0% probability to a 25bps rate increase at the 9 December 2026 meeting.
According to the Office for National Statistics (ONS), the United Kingdom’s (UK) real GDP expanded by 0.7% q/q in Q3-26 (Q2-26: +0.5% q/q). The outturn was in line with market expectations and represented the fastest quarterly growth since Q1-24. The expansion was primarily supported by stronger growth in services and production, while construction activity contracted. More specifically, services output grew by 0.9% q/q (Q2-26: +0.6% q/q). The expansion was led by a rebound in administrative and support services (+4.1% q/q vs. Q2-26: -0.3% q/q), partly reflecting stronger rental and leasing activity. Production output returned to growth in Q3-26, increasing by 0.1% q/q (Q2-26: -0.1% q/q). Precisely, faster manufacturing growth (+0.9% q/q vs Q2-26: +0.5% q/q) offset declines in mining & quarrying (-2.2% q/q vs Q2-26: +2.1% q/q), electricity & gas supply (-2.1% q/q vs Q2-26: -0.8% q/q), and water supply & waste management (-1.5% q/q vs Q2-26: -4.5% q/q). In contrast, Construction output fell by 0.7% q/q (Q2-26: +0.8% q/q). The decline reflected a 1.6% q/q (Q2-26: +0.9% q/q) decline in new work, particularly in private housebuilding, which more than offset a +0.5% q/q (Q2-26: +0.8% q/q) increase in repair and maintenance. On a year-on-year basis, GDP growth accelerated to 1.9% y/y in Q3-26 (Q2-26: +1.4% y/y). Looking ahead, we expect continued investment in artificial intelligence (AI) and cloud computing to support activity in technology related and business services in Q4-26. However, high energy costs could weigh on household spending, while the Bank of England’s November rate increase may raise borrowing costs and constrain business investment, tempering overall growth.
Global Market
Global equities traded on a broadly positive note this week, as a sharp rebound in technology and AI-linked names reversed much of the prior week’s selloff. The recovery was driven by CoreWeave’s stronger-than-expected third-quarter earnings and TSMC’s surging October sales, which confirmed resilient AI-chip demand and eased concerns over a slowdown in data-centre investment. At the time of writing, major US indices (DJIA: +2.0%; S&P 500: +2.9%; NASDAQ: +3.2%) were poised to close the week higher, led by a rebound in semiconductor and AI-linked names, including CoreWeave and Micron, though gains were capped by a hot October inflation print. Meanwhile, European equities (STOXX Europe 600: +2.4%; FTSE 100: +1.8%) advanced, tracking the global technology rebound, with the STOXX Europe 600 reaching a record high. Elsewhere, Asian markets were mixed, as Japanese equities (Nikkei 225: +6.5%) rallied on strength in chip-related heavyweights, while Chinese equities (SSE: -0.4%) edged lower on profit-taking in technology stocks amid regulatory caution. Finally, the Emerging Market (MSCI EM: +3.5%) index advanced on gains in Taiwan (+10.0%) and South Korea (+4.4%), while the Frontier Market (MSCI FM: -0.3%) index declined on losses in Romania (-0.4%) and Kazakhstan (-0.3%).
Domestic Economy
Based on the data from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC), Nigeria’s crude oil and condensate production declined by 1.7% m/m to 1.69 mb/d in October (September: 1.72 mb/d), ending two consecutive months of growth. The decline reflected lower condensate production, which fell by 6.9% m/m to 0.17 mb/d (September: 0.19 mb/d), alongside a 1.1% m/m reduction in crude oil output to 1.51 mb/d (September: 1.53 mb/d). At the terminal level, lower output from Usan (-53.0% m/m), Anyala Madu (-32.7% m/m), Agbami (-17.1% m/m), Cawthorne (-7.9% m/m), Akpo (-3.9% m/m), Egina (-3.5% m/m) and Nembe (-2.2% m/m) outweighed gains recorded across the Ugo Ocha (+14.3% m/m), Bonga (+6.2% m/m), Utapate (+3.1% m/m), Escravos (+3.0% m/m), Bonny (+2.6% m/m) and Brass (+2.1% m/m). In the near term, we expect oil production to improve, supported by higher upstream investment, improving security conditions and the ramp up of new fields and evacuation infrastructure. Nevertheless, recurring disruptions to production and evacuation infrastructure remain a key risk to our outlook, as they could constrain output gains. On balance, we forecast average crude oil and condensate production of 1.66 mb/d in 2026E.
According to the Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC), active telephony subscriptions increased by 1.5% m/m to 200.34 million in September (+15.4% y/y | August: 197.42 million). The increase reflects continued efforts by operators to attract new subscribers and improve customer retention. Active internet subscriptions also increased by 1.5% m/m to 160.91 million in September (+14.2% y/y | August: 158.52 million). By market share, MTN Nigeria retained its position, accounting for 52.3% of active telephony subscriptions, equivalent to 104.65 million subscribers. Airtel Nigeria followed with a 34.0% market share, equivalent to 68.04 million subscribers, while Globacom accounted for 11.9% or 23.80 million subscribers. T2 (formerly 9mobile) remained the smallest operator, with 1.8% of active subscriptions, equivalent to 3.61 million subscribers. Looking ahead, we expect subscriber growth to continue, supported by network expansion and subscriber acquisition by MTN Nigeria and Airtel Nigeria, the two largest operators. Nigeria’s favourable demographics provide a structural base for this growth, but its pace will depend on how well operators retain subscribers, deepen customer engagement and extend network coverage.
Capital Markets
Equities
The domestic bourse closed the week higher, as bargain hunting in DANGCEM (+9.6%), SEPLAT (+3.2%), HBMNG (+3.2%), TRANSPOWER (+5.7%) and ECOBANK (+6.9%) lifted the All-Share Index higher by 1.6% w/w to 252,749.81 points, bringing the month-to-date and year-to-date returns to +0.6% and +62.4%, respectively. On market activity, trading volume advanced by 193.8% w/w, while value traded declined by 7.1% w/w. Meanwhile, sectoral performance was mixed, as the Industrial Goods (+6.1%), Insurance (+4.4%), and Oil & Gas (+2.2%) indices advanced, while the Banking (-0.2%) and Consumer Goods (-0.5%) indices declined.
Looking ahead, we expect buying interest to remain selective, favouring fundamentally sound and liquid counters. However, attractive fixed-income yields are likely to compete for investor capital, potentially tempering demand for equities in the short term.
Money Market and Fixed Income
Money Market
The OVN rate expanded by 23bps w/w to 20.3%, as inflows from OMO maturities (NGN2.30 trillion) were outweighed by outflows from OMO PMA (NGN3.85 trillion) and net NTB issuances (NGN564.41 billion). Overall, average system liquidity declined to a net long position of NGN5.32 trillion from NGN7.62 trillion in the previous week, also reflecting lower balances at the CBN’s Standing Deposit Facility (SDF) amid substantial PMA issuances in the week under review.
System liquidity should remain supportive in the coming week, bolstered by expected inflows of NGN1.95 trillion from OMO maturities. However, potential OMO mop-up operations could absorb the liquidity surplus.
Treasury Bills
The Treasury bills secondary market traded on a mixed note, as the average yield across all instruments expanded by 3bps to 18.2%. By segment, average NTB secondary market yields contracted by 5bps to 17.8%, as unmet demand at Wednesday’s (11th November) NTB PMA filtered into the secondary market. Conversely, average yields in the OMO secondary market expanded by 21bps to 18.8%, driven by late week selloffs in shorter-dated OMO bills, particularly the December maturities. At the NTB PMA on Wednesday, the DMO offered NGN800.00 billion across tenors, with total demand reaching NGN1.12 trillion. The DMO ultimately allotted NGN713.30 billion. Stop rates remained unchanged at 15.40% and 15.79% for the 91- and 182-day tenors, respectively, while it expanded by 9bps to 15.89% for the 364-day tenor. At Tuesday’s OMO auction, the CBN offered NGN1.50 trillion in bills, attracting NGN4.07 trillion in demand and ultimately allotting NGN3.85 trillion. Stop rates settled at 17.44%, 16.68% and 15.99% for the 154D, 252D and 329D tenors, respectively.
Looking ahead, we expect the Treasury bills secondary market to retain a broadly bullish bias, supported by resilient domestic demand amid ample system liquidity.
Bonds
The FGN bond secondary market traded on a bullish note, with the average yield across instruments declining by 10bps to 16.3%, reflecting renewed demand across select segments of the curve following the revision of the FGN’s issuance plan. Across the benchmark curve, the average yield contracted at the short (-9bps), mid (-8bps) and long (-15bps) segments due to selloffs of the MAR-2027 (-84bps), FEB-2031 (-21bps) and APR-2037 (-18bps) bonds, respectively.
Next week, we expect the DMO to conduct a bond auction on Monday, 16th November, with NGN2.00 trillion on offer across the MAR-2028 (NGN700.00 billion), APR-2029 (NGN250.00 billion), AUG-2030 (NGN750.00 billion) and MAY-2033 (NGN300.00 billion) instruments. Given the sizable supply, we expect upward pressure on marginal rates at the auction. In addition, the auction outcome should provide direction for secondary market bond yields.
Foreign Exchange
The naira depreciated by 0.4% w/w to NGN1,354.25/USD, despite the CBN’s USD127.00 million intervention. Meanwhile, gross external reserves declined by USD186.61 million to USD54.87 billion (12th November 2026). In the forwards market, the naira depreciated across the 1-month (-0.5% to NGN1,376.98/USD), 3-month (-0.5% to NGN1,413.40/USD), 6-month (-0.6% to NGN1,464.15/USD), and 1-year (-0.6% to NGN1,566.32/USD) contracts.
We expect the naira to remain broadly stable around current levels in the near term, supported by the robust external reserves position and a continued current account surplus. However, risks to naira stability remain, particularly if lower domestic yields reduce the relative attractiveness of naira denominated assets or tighter global financial conditions weigh on foreign portfolio flows.