Sunday, September 28, 2014 11.55 AM / Arc. Kola Ogunleye””
Recently, the Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC), the market regulator for the telecommunications industry published fresh statistics relating to the subscriber base of the various telecommunication outfits operating in the country.
According to the report published on the website of the NCC, MTN Nigeria as at end of June 2014 recorded total customer base of approx. 56million while GLO, AIRTEL and ETISALAT recorded 27million, 25.3million and 19million respectively. The market share analysis of the different network operators is as follows; MTN (44%), GLO (21.2%), AIRTEL (20%), ETISALAT (15%).
A deeper analysis of the result reveals some interesting scenarios. When the Q2 2014 result is compared with the Q1 2014 result, the growth rate of the companies subscriber base is as follows; MTN and AIRTEL recorded a negative growth of -1.75% and -0.78% respectively while GLOBACOM grew by +17.1 % and ETISALAT by +5.5 % over the previous quarter’s performance.
Why the Telco Numbers Matter!
The role of telecommunications in enhancing economic growth is highly important and can never be underestimated in terms of national development indices due to the intrinsic value it creates in terms of jobs, commerce, trade, social and community interactions, money exchange potentials, advocacy and enlightenment.
The rebased Nigerian economic GDP offers a more compelling insight into the value of the telcomms/ICT industry with a rebased GDP figures for 2013 (source: federal office of statistics) shows at N80.3 trillion ($510 billion); a 8.68% percent contribution to the Nigerian economy and an equivalent of N6.97 trillion ($44.3 billion) of the total rebased Gross Domestic Product (GDP) estimate.
Tele-density rate and GDP in Nigeria: It has been empirically established that an increase in tele-density rate has a positive proportionate impact on the nation’s GDP, Economic and social development. The Nigerian telecoms market exceeded all expectations by being the fastest growing market in the world.
In the light of the foregoing, the numbers generated by the Telcos offers more than a business or competitive activity milestone but an insight into consumer behaviour, citizen cluster, coverage and connectivity aggregates.
Thus, when the NCC releases these figures, it is imperative that business analysts and economists interrogate the milestones; and hopefully this Q2 2014 review opens a window into why it must be a part of the new normal and encourage Telcos and the regulator to engage in the discussion of these numbers.
The Market Regulator-Released Q2 2014 Results for the Telecommunication Sector
The NCC figures as indicated above would ordinarily follow a trend/pattern and exceptions explained to help stakeholders/publics understand what these numbers mean. A cursory review would focus on the growth of the market and the numbers but at some stage we should have numbers that are able to discern between multiple number holders and new numbers to enable it provide the correct measurement of citizen participation.
Beyond that, the numbers, further to a deeper analysis, should enable us determine trends and optimum market size for if we do not expect a dip when we have an up-coverage margin, we would end playing a simple numbers’ game.
Inferences and Observations from an Inquisition
To address this, a deeper analysis would require more information beyond that which is available. Be that as it may, an initial interrogation of the released results provides some interesting scenarios.
When the Q2 results is compared with the Q1 results, the growth rate of the companies subscriber base returned a seismic shift in the underlying positions for the first time; Globacom moved up to the second position to the obvious joy of most nationals.
However, this result intrigues as much as it excites a discerning mind. At its core, it represents possibly a new normal or an aberration based on the spike (or inconsistency) that occurred.
The Glo Results, the Spike and Customer Data Metrics
Given the dearth of information available as to drivers of the figures represented here, it is impossible to explain the exponential growth experienced by GLOBACOM. It will appear as if the subscriber based data as compiled by NCC is ‘subject to’ additional information and one should not place too premium on the figures as a basis for making any useful projections going forward.
To properly contextualize the concerns within the ambit of the national development indices discussed above, one would have to recall that these ‘spike’ was achieved at a period when all the operators were on suspension from signing on new customers.
The case is simple…if these figures could be achived under this scenario, it is either there exists latent and untapped demand/market or the outcomes arose from some ‘unusual’ development which the market and development economists ought to better understand.
Further, as at the end of 2013, the total number of subscribers recorded by big four TELCOS stood at 125,582,795 million. At the end of Q2 2014, the total number of subscribers stood at 127million. The percentage growth at the end of the Q2 2014 was 2.4%. The performance of the TELCOS in the same period can therefore, and at best, be described as odd when the circumstance of that period is taken into account.
Contradictions between Activity Level and Performance by GLOBACOM
During a period where there was no sale of SIM cards for 60 days as well as a zero level of sales promotion (as directed by NCC), GLOBACOM still managed to achieve an ‘outstanding’ result with an overall growth rate of about 17.1% and extra subscriber haul of 4 million.
The result is not only unprecedented but worthy of interest. Significantly, it is statistically and in reality almost impossible to achieve; in the absence of a force majeure.
In the first instance, it would appear that there was technically no sale of new SIMS in addition to the ban on promotions for a period, thus limiting the major source of getting new subscribers to movements among the network providers by way of porting; amongst others that occurred after the intervening period.
Second, the “feat” achieved by GLOBACOM is rendered doubtful when the performance in the first half of 2014 is compared with the performance of the same period in 2013; and much more so in the comparable period of 2013 where no such spike were achieved using a seasonal hypothesis. The only probable explanation is that consumer trends shifted the way of GLO based on advertising and trade/brand marketing imperatives that created a pent up demand.
The total subscriber gain by GLOBACOM in the first 6 months of 2013 when there was no ban of sales of SIM cards stood at 895,146 while in the first 6 months of 2014 when there was a Ban on both promotions and sales for at least two (2) months stood at a net gain of two (2) million subscribers.
The question is how did GLOBACOM garner 4 million subscribers in 60 days (May-June 2014) in 2014 while it was only able to garner 1,186,066 million in 90 days (April – June) of 2013? Are we witnessing the early signs of an explosion in customer figures/drive in the Nigerian market?
Observations on the General Trend of Telcos’ Performance
Recall that this is an industry without much drama. If this spike is true, then all the form book about the market should be thrown out – the market spike must therefore be the tipping point and all stakeholders should brace themselves for a Q3 2014 that would deliver a similar type spike; or maybe not.
Not investing in speculations is critical to investors and the markets and it is imperative therefore that some clarity is achieved in this case/instance. Who would provide that?
There is no gainsaying the fact that both MTN and AIRTEL results has been consistent till now, and credible too. while the GLOBACOM results has been inconsistent end bogus especially in the last six (6) months.
There is need for more explanation and facts to support the unusual performance by GLOBACOM in Q2 2014 in other to sustain the credibility of these numbers as released by the regulator. Q3 2014 is soon upon us and we may not have to wait for much longer, or do we?
Posers for the Regulator and the Discerning Public
- What is the rationale for the sudden spike in the performance of GLOBACOM and the dip by other players?
- How does the regulator verify information on customer sign-ups and exits?
- How do we discount for multiple users in aggregating the number of users?
- Are we able to distinguish between active lines and inactive lines for the industry?
- Does the regulator request for and obtain explanations for significant changes in results and makes same available without breaching competitive ethos?
References:
- http://www.ncc.gov.ng/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=70&Itemid=226
- Mobile Peak Period Tariff (2007 – 2012)
- % Percentage Market Share by Technology (June 2014)
- % Percentage Contribution of Telecoms Industry to GDP (2001 – Sep’ 2013)
- Internet Subscriber Data (July 2013 – June 2014)
- Porting Activities of Mobile Network Operators (July 2013 – June 2014)
**Arc. Kola Ogunleye is a developmental economist and former policy adviser to a state commissioner of finance. He can be reached vide kolaogunleye@yahoo.com
