March 14, 2017/Cordros Research

According to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), Nigerian headline consumer price index has recorded its first deceleration in fourteen months. Headline inflation was 17.78% in February, 94bps down from 18.72% in January, and 58bps higher than Bloomberg’s median estimate and Cordros’ forecast of 17.2%. On month-on-month basis, the headline index increased 1.49% (vs. 1.01% the previous month).

Food inflation rose to 18.53%, from 17.82% in February. On m/m basis, food inflation climbed by 1.99%, a faster pace than the 1.29% recorded in January, driven by notable increases in the prices of bread, cereals, meat, fish, potatoes, yams and other tubers, and wine. Meanwhile, the slowest increases in food prices were recorded by soft drinks, coffee, tea, and cocoa. Imported Food inflation was 19.4%, from 20.6% in January.

Core inflation increased at a slower pace in February, rising by 16.0%, versus 17.9% in January, with the highest increases reported in electricity, liquid and solid fuels, fuels and lubricants for personal transport equipment, clothing materials, other articles of clothing and clothing accessories, and book and stationeries. On a m/m basis however, the core index increased at a higher rate of 1.10%, 42bps ahead of the 0.68% reported the previous month.