May 23, 2017/Cordros Research

The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) just released Nigeria’s Q1-2017 GDP growth estimate. Real GDP contracted by 0.52% y/y, 77 bps lower than Bloomberg’s compiled median estimate of 0.25%, further extending the country’s recessionary trend.

A quick look at the breakdown of the GDP figure shows that the oil sector recorded a negative growth of 11.64% (from –17.70% in Q4-2016 and -4.81% in Q1-2016). Over the three months period, output from the oil sector was affected by relatively lower domestic crude oil production as the effect of militants’ attacks on crude oil & gas facilities in 2016 lingered. The NBS estimated crude oil production during the three months period to be 1.83mbpd, which improved from the 1.76mbpd reported in Q4-16, but was much lower than the 2.05mbpd achieved in Q1-2016. Compared to Q4-16, the oil sector grew by 14.86%.

The non-oil sector exited the negative growth region, growing by 0.72% y/y in Q1-2017 (compared to -0.33% y/y in Q4-2016 and -0.18% y/y in the corresponding quarter of 2016). Output growth in this sector was supported by activities in the following subsectors: agriculture, manufacturing, information and communication, transportation, and other services.

A quick look at the breakdown of two of the biggest components of the GDP shows that agriculture grew by 3.39% y/y (vs. 4.03% y/y in Q4-2016) while trade declined by 3.08% y/y (vs. -1.44% y/y in Q4-16).

In terms of contribution, services, agriculture, and industries, respectively, accounted for 55.45%, 21.35%, and 23.21% of overall output growth.