Culled—Proshare
17/9/2018/Zedcrest Capital
*** High Oil Price Pushes Subsidy on Petrol to N65.60 per Litre*** – Thisday
KEY INDICATORS
| Indicator | Value | Commentary |
| Inflation | 11.23% | As at September 14, 2018, 9bps up from 11.14% recorded in July 2018. |
| MPR | 14.00% | Next MPC meeting scheduled for September 24 & 25, 2018 |
| External Reserves | $45.20bn | As at September 14, 2018. A c.0.07% decrease from $45.23bn on Sept. 13, 2018 |
| Brent Crude | $78.71pb | As at September 17, 2018. A c.0.28% increase from $78.49pb on Sept. 14, 2018 |
Bonds
Yields in the bond market declined further in today’s session, compressing by c.9bps d/d. This came as some market players looked to re-invest expected proceeds from Bond coupon payments on the 2027 and 2036 bonds, whilst tighter supply forced yields to moderate across the curve.
Whilst this trend may persist in the interim, we expect pressures from continued rise in T-bills yields as well as renewed supply at the forthcoming bond auction to push yields higher towards month end.
| Secondary Market Bonds | |||
| Description | Bid (%) | Offer (%) | Day Change (%) |
| 15.54 13-Feb-20 | 14.45 | 13.89 | (0.24) |
| 14.50 15-Jul-21 | 15.26 | 15.13 | (0.13) |
| 16.39 27-Jan-22 | 15.00 | 14.64 | (0.17) |
| 14.20 14-Mar-24 | 15.07 | 14.99 | (0.08) |
| 12.50 22-Jan-26 | 15.21 | 15.11 | (0.03) |
| 16.29 17-Mar-27 | 15.22 | 15.10 | (0.04) |
| 13.98 23-Feb-28 | 15.30 | 15.21 | 0.02 |
| 12.15 18-Jul-34 | 15.43 | 15.40 | (0.08) |
| 12.40 18-Mar-36 | 15.38 | 15.26 | (0.09) |
| 16.2499 18-Apr-37 | 15.37 | 15.27 | (0.09) |
Source: Zedcrest Dealing Desk
Treasury Bills
Yields in the T-bills market declined further due to the absence of an OMO auction by the CBN, which forced market players to re-invest excess cash flows mostly at the short end of the curve.
Market players remained cautious on the mid to long end, with interests in those segments mostly client driven. We remain wary of a further uptick in rates ahead of the forthcoming PMA, with a likely resumption in OMO auctions by the CBN expected to pressure rates higher in the interim.
Secondary Market Treasury Bills
| Description | Bid (%) | Offer (%) | Day Change (%) |
| 4-Oct-18 | 13.00 | 12.00 | (1.55) |
| 1-Nov-18 | 13.50 | 13.10 | (0.65) |
| 6-Dec-18 | 13.70 | 13.50 | (0.80) |
| 3-Jan-19 | 13.75 | 13.20 | (0.25) |
| 14-Feb-19 | 13.60 | 13.40 | (0.40) |
| 14-Mar-19 | 13.50 | 12.80 | 0.30 |
| 4-Apr-19 | 13.75 | 13.00 | (0.25) |
| 18-Jul-19 | 13.80 | 12.70 | (0.20) |
| 1-Aug-19 | 13.80 | 13.00 | (0.20) |
Source: Zedcrest Dealing Desk
Money Market
The OBB and OVN rates remained above single digits, closing today 11.83% and 12.67% respectively. The rates remained slightly pressured due to outflows for a wholesale FX auction by the CBN. System liquidity which opened the day at c.N293bn positive is consequently estimated to close at c.N264bn.
Barring a renewed OMO auction by the CBN, rates should remain relatively stable tomorrow.
| Money Market Rates | ||
| Current (%) | Previous (%) | |
| Open Buy Back (OBB) | 11.83 | 10.67 |
| Overnight (O/N) | 12.67 | 12.00 |
Source: FMDQ, Zedcrest Research
FX Market
The Interbank spot rate depreciated by 0.02% to N306.30/$, while the SMIS rate remained unchanged at N359.85/$. At the I&E FX window, a total of $598.44mn was traded in 250 deals, with rates ranging between N358.00/$ – N364.75/$. The NAFEX closing rate appreciated by c.0.07% to N362.93/$ from N363.18/$ previously.
At the parallel market, the cash rates remained stable at N359.50/$, while transfer rates depreciated by 50k to N362.00/$.
| FX Market | ||
| Current (N/$) | Previous ( N/$) | |
| CBN Spot | 306.30 | 306.25 |
| CBN SMIS | 359.85 | 359.85 |
| I&E FX Window | 362.93 | 363.18 |
| Cash Market | 359.50 | 359.50 |
| Transfer Market | 362.00 | 361.50 |
Source: CBN, FMDQ, REXEL BDC
Eurobonds
The NGERIA Sovereigns weakened a bit in today’s session, following slight selloff on the longer end of the curve. Investors have however remained favorably disposed to the tickers, especially those on the shorter end of the curve.
The NGERIA Corps were also slightly bearish, with some selloff seen on the ACCESS 21s and UBANL 22s. We however witnessed slight interests on the FBNNL 21s which gained c.0.12pct on the day.
