July 16, 2021/Fitch Ratings
New COVID-19 variants and surges in the number of cases decelerated an already labored recovery for airports throughout the world in 1H21, according to Fitch Ratings in its latest quarterly Global Airport Traffic Tracker.
Fitch estimates it will be anywhere from 4Q’23 to 2026 before airports return to pre-pandemic levels. This reflects a one-year delay since Fitch’s last report. Vaccine rollouts will likely be the main catalyst of sustained traffic recovery over the next year or so. “Vaccine rollouts will allow countries to reopen and airports to remain operational while providing greater consumer confidence in a return to air travel, as is being seen in the U.S. where traffic has surged,” said Director Jeffrey Lack.
Airport traffic, relative to pre-pandemic levels, in the U.S. (61% as of April) and Mexico (82% as of May) has improved markedly. Traffic at airports in India and Europe, not surprisingly, has suffered from new waves of the virus. India’s traffic dipped slightly but has rebounded, while Europe’s traffic fell precipitously and remains severely depressed.
The significant drop in European passenger traffic was particularly notable at U.K. airports with traffic at roughly 5%-6% of 2019 levels through the first five months of 2021. The number of coronavirus cases and associated deaths significantly declined due to the lockdown and rapid vaccination in May, but new cases are now on the rise amid lockdown relaxation.
