August 26, 2021/Cordros Update
The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) recently released Nigeria’s GDP numbers for Q2-21, with real GDP growing by 5.01% y/y (Q1-21: +0.51% y/y), marking the third consecutive quarter of growth after the COVID-19 induced decline in Q2-20 and Q3-20. The growth outturn outperformed Cordros’ estimate (+3.37% y/y), owing to a positive surprise from the non-oil GDP.
A cursory examination of the breakdown of GDP figures showed that the oil sector remained in the woods, contracting by 12.65% y/y (Q1-21: -2.21% y/y). According to the NBS, crude oil production averaged 1.61mb/d in Q2-21, 11.05% y/y lower than Q2-20. The oil sector contributed 7.42% to total GDP (Q1-21: 9.25%) during the review period.
On the other hand, the non-oil sector grew faster by 6.74% y/y in Q2-21 (Q1-21: +0.79% y/y). The non-oil sector contributed 92.58% to total GDP (vs 91.07% and 90.75% in Q2-20 and Q1-21, respectively).
Decomposing the GDP on a sectoral basis: Agriculture grew slower by 1.30% y/y (Q1-21: +2.28% y/y); Industries contracted by 1.23% y/y compared to the growth of 0.94% y/y in Q1-21; while Services grew faster by 9.27% y/y (Q1-21: -0.39% y/y).
In terms of contribution, services, agriculture, and industries, respectively, accounted for 55.66%, 23.78%, and 20.57% of overall output growth.
