Priorities for a Robust Recovery

(PHOTO: ASIANDREAM/ISTOCK BY GETTY IMAGES)

The global economy continues to recover but the pace of growth has slowed, IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said in a blog on Wednesday ahead of a meeting of G20 finance ministers and central bankers in the Indonesian capital, Jakarta.

Inflation has been higher than expected in many economies, financial markets remain volatile, and geopolitical tensions have increased sharply. “That is why we need strong international cooperation and extraordinary agility,” Georgieva said. “For most countries, this means continuing to support growth and employment while keeping inflation under control and maintaining financial stability—all in the context of high debt levels.”

A new IMF staff report to the G20 underscores the complexity of this obstacle course of challenges and sets out three priorities to help policymakers find a path through it.

Read a transcript of Georgieva’s statement to the G20 meeting.

The Costs of Bitcoin

(PHOTO: ISTOCK)

Digital means of payment such as El Salvador’s Chivo government e-wallet have an important role to play in promoting financial inclusion, but there are large risks associated with using Bitcoin as legal tender, the IMF’s El Salvador team tell Country Focus in an interview.

“We don’t recommend it,” said the team, led by Alina Carare, Deputy Division Chief in the Western Hemisphere Department. “In the short-term, the costs and risks largely outweigh the benefits.”

After a sharp decline in 2020, the IMF expects the economy to expand by around 10 percent in 2021, but medium-term growth is likely to slip to around 2 percent, below the historical average, as policy stimulus in the US wanes.

–Unsustainable Situation: Persistent budget deficits and continuous expansionary fiscal policies have resulted in a rapidly growing public debt-to-GDP ratio. “Unless decisive policy actions are taken, public debt will continue to grow, demanding more resources from the budget as borrowing costs increase,” the team said. “This situation is unsustainable.”

Europe’s Supply Squeeze

(PHOTO: IMF PHOTO/CYRIL MARCILHACY)

When countries asked people to stay at home to control COVID-19, consumers cut spending on services and bought more manufactured goods instead. Shortages of industry inputs from chemicals to microchips caused the manufacturing recovery to stall and prices to spike—sparking a debate about inflation and monetary policy.

In a new blog, IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva, Europe Director Alfred Kammer and Oya Celasun estimate that without supply disruptions euro-area GDP last year would have been about 2 percent higher—equivalent to about one year’s worth of growth in pre-pandemic times. About half of the increase in manufacturing price inflation can be explained by supply shocks, the authors say.

–Reining in Inflation: If euro-area authorities can overcome supply disruptions, it is less likely that they will have to restrict economic growth to rein in inflation, according to the blog, which is based on an IMF staff paper available here.

The Currency Revolution

(PHOTO: ISTOCK/DEM10; GETTY/DEM10; GETTY/ALENGO)

In his latest book, The Future of Money: How the Digital Revolution Is Transforming Currencies and Finance, Cornell University professor Eswar Prasad describes how digital currencies and other financial technologies are reshaping everything from consumer banking to monetary policy and international payments.

In a conversation with F&D’s Chris Wellisz, Prasad lays out the advantages and perils of the new forms of money. “The convenience of digital payments to both consumers and businesses makes it highly unlikely that cash will survive much longer,” Prasad says.

Read the entire article.

🎧 Listen to a new IMF Podcast where Prasad discusses his new book.

Coming Soon: F&D March Issue “Rethinking Fiscal”

Our upcoming issue of Finance & Development will focus on how the pandemic has forced a rethink of fiscal policy. Fresh insights and analysis from Vitor Gaspar, Olivier Blanchard, Ceyla Pazarbasioglu, Carmen Reinhart, Arminio Fraga, Ricardo Reis, Emmanuel Saez, Felipe Larraín, and more will delve into issues of spending, debt and the role of government in economic life. The issue will also explore how some countries are innovating in areas of climate, transparency, and digitalization; the role of taxation; and how fiscal policy can be used to curb inequalities.

Take a look back at our December Issue of Finance & Development.

Want to get a print copy delivered to your home or office? Click here to subscribe.

A New Social Contract

In a new podcast, IMF Director Kristalina Georgieva and London School of Economics Director Minouche Shafik discuss how current economic trends are straining social safety nets and fueling disaffection among people across the globe.

(PHOTO: IMF)

What’s Affecting Inflation?

What’s affecting inflation around the world? The latest in our Charts in Motion series shows how energy, food and exchange rates are fueling inflation across the world and estimates how high prices could rise.

(PHOTO: IMF PHOTO/TAMARA MERINO)

Essential Reading: Climate Change

Check out our eLibrary section on issues related to climate change. You can find IMF research on everything from climate information architecture to proposals for an international carbon price floor for large emitters.

 

Our Chart of the Week by Laurence Ball, Daniel Leigh, Prachi Mishra and Antonio Spilimbergo shows that the traditional core measure of inflation was almost as volatile as headline inflation for most of the past two years. This was because many large price changes occurred in sectors outside of food and energy. The case for moving away from the traditional measure of core inflation towards an alternative has strengthened, the authors say.

WEEKLY ROUND-UP

01. Green Fiscal Policies

Green public financial management is the integration of climate and environment-friendly perspectives into fiscal practices, systems, and frameworks. The objective is to promote fiscal policies that are responsive to climate and environmental concerns. Read about the five guiding principles for a successful approach to green PFM in this article.

02. Monetary Finance

A new IMF staff paper reviews the theoretical arguments for and against monetary financing and presents an assessment of the risks that it may pose for inflation. Supporters say fiscal stimulus financed by money creation would have a stronger effect than a debt-financed one. But opponents see it as a risk to central bank credibility.

03. Natural Rate of Interest

There is a growing consensus among economists that the natural rate of interest (r∗) has declined in recent decades in the United States and other advanced economies. A new IMF staff paper predicts that the natural rate will stabilize at 1 percent in the long run. This remains true even if we take into account soaring public debt levels due to the pandemic.

04. Global Value Chains

International trade is mostly priced in a few key currencies and is increasingly dominated by intermediate goods and global value chains. A new IMF staff paper reexamines the relationship between monetary policy, exchange rates and international trade flows. It finds key differences in the response of trade to domestic and foreign shocks depending on the origin and destination of the shipments involved.