Last week, the National Bureau of Statistics released its FY-2021 GDP report. The non-oil sector expanded by 4.7% y/y in Q4-2021, bringing FY-2021 growth to 4.4%. This marks a modest rebound from the 1.3% contraction in FY-2020. The sector remains the primary driver of economic growth, with the oil sector still lagging.

The growth in the non-oil sector was mainly driven by expansion in the services sector, growing by 5.6% y/y in FY-2021, on the back of a sturdy outing in the ICT sub-sector (+6.6% y/y), Financial Services (+10.1% y/y), and recovery in Trade (+8.6% y/y). Increased internet penetration & data usage, strong credit creation and resumption of international travel were all factors that contributed to solid expansion in ICT, Financial Services and Trade. In addition, the Agricultural sector (+2.1% y/y) and Manufacturing sector (+3.4% y/y) also contributed to the strong growth in the non-oil sector. The agricultural sector defied banditry/insecurity concerns, unfavourable climate conditions and legacy infrastructure challenges as strong food demand remains an overriding positive. Similarly, reopening economic activities and more robust consumer & business consumption supported manufacturing output. By extension, improvement in supply chain bottlenecks provided much-needed relief for the sector.