February 28, 2022/Coronation Research

The ongoing disruptions in Europe following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has potential economic implications. The Russia-Ukraine crisis has been brewing for eight years since Russia occupied Crimea, a region along the Southern Russia – Ukraine border. Russia and Ukraine are regarded as emerging European economies.

In the latest regional economic outlook published by the IMF, GDP growth for Russia is estimated at 2.8% y/y this year and 2.1% y/y in 2023. Meanwhile, Ukraine’s GDP growth is projected at 3.6% y/y in 2022 and 3.4% y/y in 2023. On a broader level, the emerging market and developing economies group, where Russia and Ukraine fall under, is expected to grow by 4.8% y/y in 2022. Given the ongoing crisis, a downward revision may be on the horizon due to the obvious economic challenges Ukraine and Russia will experience.

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