June 2, 2022/CSL Research

Following the conclusion of the Peoples Democratic Party’s (PDP) presidential primaries, with a total of 371 votes out of 764 votes, the former Vice-President, Atiku Abubakar, emerged as the PDP presidential candidate for the 2023 elections. With the die cast for the PDP, Nigerians eagerly await the presidential primaries for the All Progressives Congress (APC) scheduled to hold on Monday, 6 June 2022. We reiterate that though there will be many other candidates from other parties, we expect the presidential battle to be between the candidates of the PDP and APC. Shortly before the PDP presidential primaries, Peter Obi, former governor of Anambra State, and a presidential aspirant of the Peoples Democratic Party resigned from the PDP due to what he referred to as recent developments within the party. He has since been adopted as the flagbearer of the Labour party.

We struggle to see the possibility of a third force arising by way of alliances before the elections and so we believe Peter Obi, who appeared to have been gathering some level of support, stands no chance with the Labour Party.

Twenty-eight presidential aspirants obtained the nomination and expression of interest forms of the ruling party and a few of the well-known names include Bola Tinubu; Vice President Yemi Osinbajo; former Minister of Transportation, Rotimi Amaechi; former Minister of Niger Delta Development, Sen. Godswill Akpabio; former Imo State Governor, Sen. Rochas Okorocha; Pastor Tunde Bakare; Cross River State Governor, Prof. Ben Ayade; Ebonyi State Governor, Dave Umahi; Ekiti State Governor, Dr Kayode Fayemi; Kogi State Governor, Yahaya Bello; and former Ogun State Governor, Sen. Ibikunle Amosun. In our view, the APC candidate will in all likelihood be Bola Ahmed Tinubu or Professor YemiOsinbajo, as those are the two candidates among the pack who stand the chance of taking on Abubakar Atiku headlong.

So, as things stand, it appears safe to conclude that the Presidential race may be down to three people- Atiku Abubakar and either Bola Ahmed Tinubu or Professor Yemi Osinbajo and either of the three candidates stands almost an equal chance of winning in our view.

Atiku Abubakar, who is Hausa Fulani from Adamawa state in North-East Nigeria, enjoys reasonable popularity there. Being the PDP flagbearer, he will quite naturally get the support of the South-East and South-South regions, which are predominantly controlled by PDP, though APC has been encroaching those regions gradually. While it remains difficult to measure the level of support he can get from the North Central region, the region’s dismay with Buhari and, in effect, the APC as a whole will likely leave Atiku as an option, we believe. That said, being a Northern Muslim may stand against Atiku in that region that has been severely divided along religious and ethnic lines.

The South-West–which is controlled by the APC will likely go to APC. For one, the two likely flagbearers of the APC are from the South-West region. Though, For the APC, the power of incumbency no longer confers the advantage it should, given what many people term a failure of leadership under President Buhari, its control of agencies, including the Nigeria Police Force, confers a clear advantage to the APC. The incumbent, President Buhari, being Hausa-Fulani from Katsina state in North-West Nigeria, has his traditional foothold in that region and can use that to get support for his party.