November 23, 2022/CSL Research
Based on a Punch news report, the Governor of Anambra State, Charles Soludo, in an article titled, ‘History beckons, and I will not be silent (Part 1), noted that the presidential candidate of the Labour Party, Peter Obi, cannot win the 2023 presidential election.
Governor Soludo said that the labour party (LP) candidate is playing a game with his election bid, adding that Obi did not have the necessary structure in place to win the Presidency on the Labour Party platform. Mr Soludo had on Thursday last week, while appearing as a guest on Channels TV said the value of investments made by Mr Obi while he was the governor of the state was worth close to nothing. In response, supporters of Peter Obi (Obidients) took to social media to berate Soludo.
Former Anambra State Governor and presidential aspirant, Peter Obi declared his intention to run for presidency under the platform of the People Democratic party (PDP) on the 23March 2022, but due to internal politicking within the PDP which divided the party along ethnic and religious lines and the alleged money inducement of delegates during the PDP primary elections, Peter Obi left the PDP and declared his intention to run for presidency under the platform of the Labour Party (LP) in May 2022.
He is widely seen as the third force Nigerians have been clamoring for. This is due to his large support base among the youth voting bloc, which has continued to grow even amidst fierce criticism.
While former Lagos State governor and presidential candidate of the All-Progressive Congress (APC), Bola Ahmed Tinubu and former vice president and People’s democratic party presidential candidate, Atiku Abubakar, seem to have an edge over Peter Obi due to the political structures of both parties (APC and PDP), the election would be keenly contested. Political structures are key in any election and its absence will no doubt affect the the Labour party’s chances.
Voting along ethnic and religious and lines is customary in Nigeria’s democracy as this might be the bane of the labour party candidate, with the north having a larger percentage of the entire voting population and it is generally agreed that Peter Obi has a very low support base in the North.
With the breakdown of the proposed merger with the NNPP candidate Mr Rabiu Kwankwaso and Peter Obi’s inability to pick a grass root northern politician as his vice-presidential candidate,the road into the northern voting bloc might not be easy for Peter Obi.
While Peter Obi’s acceptance has continued to grow, especially among the youths and the educated elite, the electoral law requires that the successful presidential candidate obtains both a simple majority and 25% of the popular vote across two-thirds of Nigeria’s 36 states. This factor, we believe, will limit Peter Obi’s chance of victory.
