May 12, 2023/United Capital

Anglophone West Africa
Nigeria

• According to the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC), oil production declined by 2.9% m/m to 1.27mbpd in Mar-2023 from 1.31mbpd in Feb-2023. This represents the first plunge in oil production since Sep-2022. The Federal Government and oil sector players blamed the decline on the massive crude oil theft in Niger Delta. This led to revenue losses for the country, International Oil Companies (IOCs)operating in Nigeria as well as indigenous operators in the industry.
• The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) disclosed that it has disbursed a total of N144.0bn to exporters of semi and finished commodities as rebates in line with its RT200 Programme. In Q1-2023, the exporters were paid a total of N25.0bn, an 8x increase compared to the same period last year.
• The President, Major General Muhammadu Buhari (retd.), approached the National Assembly seeking approval for a fresh $800.0mn loan from the World Bank for the National Social Safety Net Programme.
• International airfares on Nigeria routes to various global destinations have skyrocketed again as the International Air Transport Association’s (IATA) exchange rate for ticket sales has risen 37.5% above the official rate (N461.1/$) to print at N634.0/$.

Ghana

• According to Ghana Statistical Service (GSS), headline inflation eased for the fourth month to 41.2% y/y in Apr-2023, from 45.0% in Mar-2023. It marks the lowest reading in six months amid the relative stability in the cedi, due in part to expectations that a final deal with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) or a $3.0bn bailout is imminent.
• Food inflation eased to 48.7% y/y in Apr-2023 from 50.8% y/y in Mar-2023 and core inflation decelerated to 35.4% y/y from 40.6% y/y in Mar-2023. On a monthly basis, consumer prices surged by 2.4% m/m in Apr-2023, the most in four months, after a 1.2% fall in the prior month.
• S&P Global Ratings affirmed its ‘SD/SD’ long and short-term foreign currency ratings and its ‘CCC+/C’ long and short-term local currency ratings on Ghana. The outlook on the long-term local currency rating remains stable.
• The stable outlook on the long-term local currency rating reflects the government’s improved refinancing profile and reduced cost of debt as a consequence of its recent domestic debt restructuring.

Francophone West Africa (WAEMU)
Ivory Coast

• Bloomberg reports revealed that Ivory Coast farmers sent 37,630 tonnes of cocoa to ports between 1-May-2023 and 7-May-2023. According to government data, Ivory Coast has sent 1.97mn tonnes of cocoa since the start of the season in Oct-2022 compared to 2.06mn tonnes reported same period last year.
• According to IMF’s Resident Representative, Kadima Kalonji, Ivory Coast will need to replace government subsidies with targeted cash transfers as one of the requirements to get final approval for its $3.5bn support package from the International Monetary Fund.
• According to a statement from the government, the observed 6.0% climb in the nation’s oil output to 9.3mn bbl. in 2022 can be attributable to the rise in the commissioning of operating wells on block CI-27 and improved facilities on the Espoir field.

Benin

• S&P Global, an international rating agency, affirmed Benin’s long-term foreign currency debt rating at B+, maintaining a stable outlook.

Guinea

• According to the Ministry of Finance, the Country shipped 11.68mn metric tons of Bauxite metal in FY-2022, exceeding the target of 10.75mn tons by 8.5%.

East Africa
Kenya

• According to the Central Bank of Kenya, the country’s public debt in Q1-2023 increased by 12.0% y/y to 9.4tn shillings from 8.3tn shillings in Q1-2022. Domestic debt increased by 8.0% to 4.5tn shillings, while external obligations grew 15.0% to 4.9tn shillings over the period.
• The governments of Germany and Kenya pledged to strengthen cooperation on climate protection, green energy and the exchange of workers after talks between Chancellor Olaf Scholz and President William Ruto in Nairobi.
• According to Kenya’s Ministry of Energy’s superintending physicist, Kenya may announce offers of 12 blocks in the shallow, offshore section of the Lamu basin. The section has potential, given that gas was discovered in one of the blocks abandoned by an oil explorer.
• According to the Central Bank of Kenya, weekly foreign reserves decreased from $6.51bn on April 27 to print at $6.49bn on May 4.
• According to Bloomberg, the Safaricom-led consortium has concluded negotiations with the government of Ethiopia on the terms for offering mobile financial services in Kenya. The consortium is in the process of obtaining a payment instrument issuer license from the National Bank of Ethiopia.
• According to Metropol, a credit reference bureau, the number of mobile-loan accounts in arrears for more than 90 days jumped by 25.0% to 20.0mn in 2022, compared to the 15.0mn accounts that were blacklisted in 2021, in the aftermath of the coronavirus pandemic.
• According to the MD of the state-controlled National Cereals and Production Board, the government has gazetted national food reserve regulations, which will allow for the creation of the Strategic Food Reserve Fund. The agency will resume stockpiling grain and other food products; as plans to purchase at least 3.0mn (90.0kg) bags of corn are set into motion.

Rwanda

• The National Bank of Rwanda has kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 7.0% as it projects inflation to continue on its current downward trajectory, falling back within the 2.0% to 8.0% target range by year-end.
• According to the National Institute of Statistics of Rwanda, Rwanda’s urban CPI rose 17.8% y/y in Apr-2023 compared to the 19.3% recorded in Mar-2023.
• The statistics agency also noted that Rwanda’s trade deficit widened to $322.0mn in Mar-2023 from $270.6mn in the previous month. Imports rose 27.9% m/m to print at $549.6mn, while exports improved by 43.1% m/m to $227.5mn.

Tanzania

• According to the National Bureau of Statistics Tanzania, Tanzania’s consumer prices rose 4.3% y/y in Apr-2023 versus +4.7% in Mar-2023.
• According to Abbas Kisuju, a senior legal officer at the Petroleum Upstream Regulatory Authority, the country is tentatively considering 26 blocks for offer in the licensing round, although the final number will be determined after geological assessment. Fifteen of the blocks being considered are onshore, while eleven are offshore.
• According to the permanent secretary of the Ministry of Energy, Tanzania is set to sign a Host Government Agreement (HGA) with oil majors Shell Plc and Equinor ASA for a $40.0 -$42.0bn LNG project in the country’s southern Lindi region.
• The HGA will be followed by pre-front-end engineering design, with the final investment decision expected in 2028. The Plant construction may take 3.5 – 5 years, depending on the design. The Project will have the capacity to produce 15.0mn tonnes of liquefied natural gas annually.

Uganda

• According to the Kampala-based parliament, Uganda has raised the national budget by 2.0% to 52.0tn shillings for the year (2023) through June 2024 to facilitate the funding of additional projects and Treasury operations.
• The allocations for projects were raised to 8.0tn shillings from 7.4tn shillings following a review of the external funding portfolio. At least 254.0bn shillings will be allocated to Treasury operations to help reduce the government’s liability with the central bank.
• According to the permanent secretary of the Ugandan Ministry of Energy, the ministry is set to evacuate “about five” blocks for its third oil-licensing round. The blocks will be announced by year-end.
• According to the Ugandan Minister of Energy, Ruth Nankabirwa, the government of Uganda is very confident of raising the debt needed for the 1,443-kilometer conduit from local fields to the Tanzania port of Tanga, even after some banks withdrew plans to back the project.
• The minister further disclosed that Uganda’s partnership with oil majors TotalEnergies and China’s Cnooc Ltd. will help to raise funds for the project. According to Uganda National Oil Co., the equity-to-debt ratio is projected at 40.0%/60.0%.
• According to Bloomberg, Uganda estimates that it will need $28.1bn to adapt to the effects of climate change and cut emissions until the end of the decade. The East African nation is targeting 25.0% reductions in emissions by 2030.
• The funding, which will be managed through a newly established climate finance unit, is required for adaptation and mitigation measures in sectors such as energy, forestry and agriculture. It plans to raise at least $4.0bn domestically and source the balance externally.
• According to Bloomberg, the Ugandan government is seeking parliamentary approval to borrow 147.7mn euros from the African Development Fund (ADF) and 59.0mn euros from the African Development Bank (AfDB) for the rehabilitation of the rail link between the capital, Kampala, and the Kenyan border. Nonetheless, the government is also planning another loan of 25.98mn euros from Spain’s Corporate Internationalisation Fund for the meter-gauge rail.
• According to the Bank of Uganda, Uganda’s M3 money supply rose 8.2% y/y in Mar-2023 versus the revised +5.9% in Feb-2023.

Southern Africa
South Africa

• According to the Foreign Minister of South Africa, the BRICS group of nations (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) will discuss the feasibility of introducing a common currency. South Africa is preparing to host a summit of the bloc’s heads of state in Johannesburg on 22-Aug-2023.
• According to the South African Reserve Bank (SARB), the country’s gross reserves fell to $61.7bn in Apr-2023 from $61.9bn in Mar-2023. However, net reserves rose to $55.4bn from $55.2bn in Mar-2023.

Angola

• According to the CEO of Etu Energias, Angola’s private oil company, the company plans to reach 50,000bpd of output by 2025. Proposals by the local company come as Angola seeks investment to reverse declining production.

Zambia

• The Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) stated that the fund is withholding a $188.0mn payment to Zambia to push the nation’s official creditors to agree to a long-awaited debt relief deal.

Zimbabwe

• The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has cautioned the Zimbabwean government against adopting a gold-backed digital currency, even as the country attempts to deal with macroeconomic challenges. Instead, the Fund advised the government to liberalise its foreign exchange market.

Central Africa
Cameroon

• The Minister of Economy, Alamine Ousmane Mey, has signed a loan agreement of €32.25mn (c. CFA21.2bn) with Muhammad Al Jasser, the head of the Islamic Development Bank (IsDB). The Cameroonian government secured the new financial support as part of the support for the reconstruction of the war-torn Anglophone regions of the Northwest and Southwest.
• The Minister further disclosed that the funding will support the government’s efforts to rebuild and rehabilitate essential infrastructure, strengthen social cohesion and revitalise the local economy in the targeted regions.
• Earlier this week, the Cameroonian Treasury announced the repayment of its 2022 bond issue on the Beac public securities market.
• According to Louis Banga Ntolo, the Managing Director of the Central African Securities Exchange (Bvmac), a first disbursement of CFA14.6bn will be made on 26 May 2023. Investors will receive CFA625.0mn per bond as interest, and the repayment of the principal will begin in 2025 per the repayment timetable.
• According to Cemile Sancak, the lead of the mission currently carrying out the fourth review of the 3-year IMF program in the country, the government of Cameroon is preparing a budget revision plan to amend the 2023 Finance Act. The 2023 finance law amendment, expected to be available between May and June, will once again be enacted as an ordinance by the head of state and later ratified by parliamentarians.
• The Cameroonian government is expecting financial support of CFA26.6bn from the French Development Agency (AFD) this year (2023). The funds will be granted as part of the 3-year economic program that was signed with the IMF in 2022.

Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC)

• According to the Ministry of Oil, Perenco SA was the sole bidder for the Yema II oil block near the western coast of Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). Perenco currently runs Congo’s only oil project, which produces 25,000 bbl. per day near the Atlantic coast.
• According to Bloomberg, Ugandan Energy Minister Ruth Nankabirwa, Uganda is in talks with Congo over sharing of oil infrastructure in the region. The final investment decision for Uganda’s planned 60,000 b/d refinery will be taken by June 30.
• The Democratic Republic of Congo’s oil ministry announced new due dates for bids on four (4) oil blocks in its eastern region, including one that overlaps with a famous gorilla habitat. Submissions for the blocks are now due between Oct and Dec-2023, compared to the previous deadlines of late May and early Jun-2023.