May 19, 2023/United Capital Research
Anglophone West Africa
Nigeria
- Manufacturers threaten shutdown over excise duty hike
The Manufacturers Association of Nigeria has said that the recent increase in excise duty for beverage and tobacco goods will force businesses to scale down operations, which will result in factory closures, job losses, a decline in exports among others.
- Dangote Refinery expects its first crude batch in Jun-2023.
According to a report released on 16-May by S&P Global Commodity Insights, the Dangote refinery is anticipating the arrival of its first crude batch in June-2023. A representative from the refinery revealed that they expect to commence processing this initial batch, consisting of 500,000 bpd, before gradually increasing production to 650,000 bpd by mid-2024. The official commissioning of the Dangote refinery by President Buhari is scheduled for 22-May.
https://nairametrics.com/2023/05/17/dangote-refinery-expects-first-crude-batch-in-june-2023/
- Nigeria’s debt service to revenue ratio rises to 112% in 2022 – CBN
The latest data from the Central Bank of Nigeria reveal the federal government’s debt service to revenue ratio rose to 111.8% in 2022. This is according to the CBN’s 2022 statistical survey data where most of the country’s fiscal and monetary-based data is reported. The high level of debt service to revenue ratio raises serious concerns about the financial management of the current administration led by President Buhari.
https://nairametrics.com/2023/05/17/nigerias-debt-service-to-revenue-ratio-rises-to-112-in-2022-cbn/
- Dollar inflows into Nigeria decline by 23% to $72.4 billion in 2022
Nigeria recorded a total foreign exchange inflow of $72.4 billion in 2022, which is a 23.3% decline compared to the $94.3 billion recorded in 2021 and 37.4% lower than $115.6 billion received in 2020. This is according to the data in the CBN quarterly statistical bulletin for Q4 2022.
Dollar inflows into Nigeria decline by 23% to $72.4 billion in 2022 – Nairametrics
- Nigeria’s inflation rises to 22.22% y/y in Apr-2023.
The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) released Nigeria’s April 2023 Consumer Price Index (CPI) report. The report revealed yet another climb in y/y inflation rate, climbing by 18bps to print at 22.23% y/y from 22.05% in March 2023. On a divisional level, intensified pressure in the inflation of prices of Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages was the main driver of the headline inflation print. From a month-on-month perspective, headline inflation rate recorded a 5bps climb to print at 1.91% m/m from 1.86% m/m in March 2023.
https://www.thisdaylive.com/index.php/2023/05/15/breaking-nigerias-inflation-rises-to-22-22/
Ghana
- IMF approves $3.0bn Ghana loan, with $600.0mn immediate payout.
The International Monetary Fund’s executive board on Wednesday approved a $3.0bn, three-year loan program for Ghana, allowing for an immediate disbursement of about $600.0mn and a potential path out of the West African country’s worst economic crisis in a generation.
- Electricity tariff in Ghana goes up by 18.4% in Q2-2023.
Ghanaian consumers will have to pay more for electricity as the Public Utilities Regulatory Commission (PURC) has announced an 18.4% increase in the average end-user tariff for Q2-2023. This comes after a 29.6% hike in Q1-2023.
https://nairametrics.com/2023/05/17/electricity-tariff-in-ghana-goes-up-by-18-36-in-q2-2023/
Francophone West Africa (WAEMU)
Senegal
- IMF staff, Senegal reach agreement on $1.9bn funding package
International Monetary Fund staff have reached agreement with Senegal on financing facilities totalling about $1.9bn, the Fund said in a statement. The deal is subject to approval by the IMF executive board, which is tentatively scheduled to consider it in mid-June.
- Senegal opposition leader appeals conviction threatening his presidential bid
Senegalese opposition leader Ousmane Sonko has appealed a libel conviction that could prevent him running in presidential elections next year, one of his lawyers said, as another round of protests broke out on Monday.
East Africa
Kenya
- Budget cuts hit President Ruto’s plan to sell three parastatals
President William Ruto’s plan to sell non-performing parastatals has met a financial setback after the Treasury failed to allocate the Sh1.7 billion needed to facilitate the floating of three initial public offerings (IPOs) in the financial year starting July 1.
- Bank accounts with over Sh100,000 hit 1.9 million
The number of bank accounts in Kenya holding more than Sh100,000 grew by 4.9 percent to 1.871 million last year, handing banks cheaper working capital in a year where depositors were hunting for higher returns.
- Kenya downplays Moody’s credit ratings downgrade
Kenya says last week’s credit ratings downgrade by Moody’s is not as dire as painted by the ratings agency. Treasury Principal Secretary, Dr Chris Kiptoo, says Kenya is due to receive about Sh578.0 billion worth of external financing before close of June 30, and there is no need to worry about the liquidity challenges that are being faced.
- Kenya Power Targets 280,473 Homes With Cheap Connectivity
Kenya Power has announced the return of the last mile electrification project (LMCP), which will connect households to the national grid under a subsidized program. The new phase will benefit 280,473 households in 32 targeted counties at a cost of Sh26.8 billion.
Rwanda
- Value addition to minerals, pays off as demand goes up
Investment in value addition and a rise in demand in the international market have catalyzed turnaround of the country’s mineral sector.
- Food prices to remain high
The drop in food production in the country is expected to keep cost of living high in the first half of 2023, even as the economy continues to recover.
https://rwandatoday.africa/rwanda/business/food-prices-to-remain-high-4201740
Tanzania
- Tanzania: Zanzibar Projects 7.1% Economic Growth
Zanzibar economy is projected to grow at 7.1 per cent in 2023, thanks to the booming tourism industry and execution of strategic development projects.
https://allafrica.com/stories/202305120056.html
- Tanzania: Zanzibar to Produce Its Own Power
For the first time ever, Zanzibar will start generating its own electricity, a move which will reduce dependence on power transported from Tanzania Mainland. This comes after the Zanzibar government on Monday signed a contract with investors to generate 180MW from solar energy.
https://allafrica.com/stories/202305160092.html
- Tanzanian Traders Strike Over High Taxes In Rare Protest
More than 1,000 shops in Tanzania’s busiest market remained shut for a third day on Wednesday as traders protested a new tax, in a rare public protest against the government.
Uganda
- Uganda cancels $2.2bn SGR contract with Chinese firm, signs with Turkish company
After eight years of non-execution, the Uganda government has terminated the contract of China Harbour Engineering Company (CHEC) to build the country’s first phase of standard gauge railway (SGR), a 273km line from Malaba to Kampala.
- Ugandan shilling marginally weaker in slow trading
The Ugandan shilling traded marginally weaker amid thin activity on both the demand and supply sides, traders said.
Southern Africa
Angola
- According to the Instituto Nacional de Estatistica, Angola’s national consumer prices rose 10.59% y/y in Apr-2023 versus +10.81% in Mar-2023.
https://www.reuters.com/article/ozabs-uk-angola-cpi-idAFKCN0QH1WM20150812
- According to Fitch Solutions, the recent decline in oil production in Angola is projected to weigh on the growth of the country’s construction sector.
South Africa
- South Africa’s Competition Tribunal granted an interim relief application brought by the Industrial Gas Users’ Association of Southern Africa, stopping Sasol Gas from increasing the price of piped natural gas above 68.39 rand/GJ for the next six months.
- The Chief economist for Africa and the Middle East at Standard Chartered Bank, Razia
Khan, sees the South African Reserve Bank leaning more toward hawkish postures in subsequent meetings in FY-2023, o tame the rising inflation.
- Eskom Holdings SOC Ltd. acting CEO Calib Cassim revealed that the outlook for the coming Winter indicates increased risk of supply shortfall against expected demand.
- The South African Minister for Energy, Gwede Mantashe, stated that “South Africa Will Remove Moratorium on Shale Gas”. He also disclosed that “research had found shale gas as economically viable” and will allow those interested to explore.
https://ewn.co.za/2023/05/17/mantashe-we-will-continue-with-gas-and-petroleum-exploration
- According to Statistics South Africa, the country’s retail sales fell 1.6% y/y in Mar-2023 vs a fall of 0.7% y/y in Feb-2023. This reveals the steep decline of consumer spending in South Africa, as a result of the elevated inflation rate.
https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/south-african-retail-sales-fall-16-year-year-march-2023-05-17/
- According to a report from BankservAfrica, average salary increases in South Africa are failing to keep pace with inflation as low economic growth, high unemployment and the fallout from the coronavirus pandemic continues to take toll on the labor market.
- South Africa’s unemployment rate rose for the first time in more than a year as more people started to look for work, and it may continue climbing with power cuts intensifying, discouraging investment, and sapping economic growth.
- According to the Minister for Mineral Resources and Energy, Gwede Mantashe, the South African government is set to issue requests for proposals for the procurement of nuclear energy in fourth quarter of financial year 2023.
https://www.bizcommunity.com/Article/196/693/238438.html
Zambia
- Zambia increased its benchmark interest rate for the second time this year to 9.5% from 9.25%, to contain inflation that’s forecast to remain above the central bank’s target range over the next two years.
- According to the Zambian President, Hakainde Hichilema, Zambia expects official creditors to provide the nation with closure when they next meet because the government has done what it needs to, to complete a sovereign debt restructuring.
https://www.znbc.co.zm/news/hh-optimistic-about-concluding-discussions-with-creditors/
- Zambia’s Food Reserve Agency raised the purchase price of white corn from farmers to 280 kwacha for a 50 kilogram bag this year.
https://www.znbc.co.zm/news/fra-to-buy-maize-at-k280/
Zimbabwe
- Zimbabwe’s currency weakened almost 14.0% in the weekly central bank auction, just days after Finance Minister Mthuli Ncube called for changes to how the foreign- exchange market is managed.
https://news.yahoo.com/zimbabwe-devalues-dollar-try-stabilize-160427867.html
- Zimbabwe’s government said it will take control of the production of carbon credits in the country, stipulating that it will be entitled to half of the revenue from the securities.
- Zimbabwe’s Environment Minister said the operators of a project generating carbon credits from an area almost the size of Puerto Rico will have to give the government half its revenue if the initiative is to survive.
https://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/top-offset-project-must-hand-zimbabwe-revenue-or-close/48521810
- The Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe is set to offer for sale, $15.0mn at the auction scheduled for 23 May 2023.
https://www.newzimbabwe.com/rbz-declares-us-available-on-auction-system-a-week-earlier/
- The Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe sold 14.0bn Zimbabwean dollars’ worth of gold-backed digital tokens — worth around $39.0mn — despite a warning from the International Monetary Fund.
https://cointelegraph.com/news/zimbabwe-sells-gold-backed-crypto-tokens
- The African Development Bank plans to help Zimbabwe raise $3.5bn needed to compensate White farmers evicted from their land more than two decades ago, a condition set by the nation’s biggest creditors before they accept a proposed debt-clearance program.
- The Zimbabwe Stock Exchange instituted a trading halt on the ZSE Markets just after midday this Monday after the ZSE All Share index breached the 10.0% threshold on the upside, as per changes to the trading operations that were announced in April.
Central Africa
Cameroon
- Cameroon: Tax Directorate exceeds Q1 2023 target by CFA57bn
The Cameroonian tax directorate (DGI) announced it has collected a total of CFA818.5 billion over the first three months of 2023, up from the initial target of CFA761.5 billion. This makes a collection rate of 107.5%.
- Cameroon seeks at least CFA244bn to meet humanitarian needs in 2023
Cameroon’s Minister of Territorial Administration, Paul Atanga Nji, revealed the government needs CFA244.43 billion (about $407.3 million) to meet the Humanitarian Response Plan (HRP) 2023.
Democratic Republic of Congo
- World Bank suspends $1 billion worth of project funding in Congo
The World Bank has suspended funding for humanitarian and development projects in the Democratic Republic of Congo worth more than $1 billion after the government dissolved the project fund without warning, the lender said.
