January 23, 2024/CSL Research
According to the Nigeria Bureau of Statistics (NBS), the total number of active voice subscribers grew by 4.51% y/y in Q3 2023 to 221.77 million from 212.20 million reported in Q3 2022. On a quarter-on-quarter basis, voice subscribers rose by 0.76% from 220.09 million in Q2 2023. Also, in Q3 2023, the total number of active internet subscribers was 160.17 million from 152.78 million reported in Q3 2022, an increase of 4.83%.
On a quarter-on-quarter basis, the figure grew by 0.42% from the 159.50 million recorded in Q2 2023. MTN led the pack with a total of 85.9m active voice subscriptions and 68.6m internet subscriptions, followed by Globacom with a total voice subscription of 61.5 million and 44m internet subscriptions. Airtel trailed Glo with 60.3m voice and 45.1m internet subscriptions. 9Mobile recorded 13.8m active voice and 4m internet subscriptions.
The rise in voice subscribers can be attributed to growing investments in network infrastructure, particularly in rural areas. As telcos continue to accelerate the development of rural network infrastructure, we anticipate that voice subscriber growth will continue, albeit at a slower rate. On the other and, we expect that the number of internet users will continue to rise due to the ongoing shift to a data-centric model, which is being driven by increased
smartphone penetration and the continuous expansion of telcos 4G and 5G networks.
The Information and Communications Technology (ICT) sector’s growth rate declined to a five year low of 6.69% y/y in Q3 2023 compared with 10.53% recorded in Q3 2022 and 8.60% recorded in Q2 2023. The telecommunications subsector growth rate fell by 23.06% y/y to 7.74% in real terms. In Q3 2023, the sector contributed 15.97% to Nigeria’s total GDP, higher than 15.35% in Q3 2022 but significantly lower than the 19.54% contribution in Q2 2023.
The ailing macroeconomic environment and government policies like the devaluation of the Naira affected the growth of the telecommunication sector significantly but we maintain our long-term positive outlook for the sector, to be driven by growth in mobile subscriptions.
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