Decent Trade Surplus Recorded in FY2023

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March 18, 2024/Coronation Research

The latest report from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) in its series on foreign trade in goods shows the total value of trade grew by +128.6% y/y to N26.8trn in Q4 ’23 vs +53.2% y/y in Q3 ‘23. The total export value increased by 22.7% q/q to N12.7trn compared with N10.4trn recorded in Q3 ‘24. This can be partly attributed to c.20% depreciation of NGN/USD recorded in Q4 ‘23. For FY2023, total exports increased by 34.2% y/y to N35.96trn.

The import value increased by 56.04% q/q to N14.1bn from N9.0trn in Q3 ‘23. We note that imports were affected by the weaker naira following the fx liberalization policy. For FY2023, imports increased by 40.4% to N35.92trn. Total trade as a percentage of nominal GDP (2023) stood at 30.4% in 2023, compared with 26.3% in 2022. In FY2023, Nigeria recorded a surplus of +N44.8bn.

According to the NBS report, the top six import sources were China N6.6trn (19.5%), India N2.8trn (N8.5%), USA N2.2trn (6.6%), Netherlands N1.8trn (5.3%), Brazil N810bn (2.4%), and the UK N688bn (2.0%). These countries collectively accounted for 44.4% of total imports in 2023. Imports from ECOWAS stood at N168bn, representing 19% of total imports within Africa.

Manufactured goods accounted for the largest share of imports, 51.2% and its import value grew significantly by 66.9%y/y. Following closely, petroleum oil products accounted for 33.42% of imports, and grew by 18.8%y/y. Raw materials accounted for 8.4%. Conversely, solid minerals registered a modest share of 0.53%. Agricultural goods followed suit with a 6.35% share, experiencing a notable growth in value of 22.3% y/y.

Regarding exports, the top six export destinations include Netherlands with exports valued at N4.5trn (12.6%), Spain N3.3trn (N9.4%), India N3.0trn (8.4%), the United States N2.6trn (7.3%), France N2.3trn (6.5%), and the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) N2.2trn (6.2%). These destinations collectively accounted for 50.4% of total exports in 2023.

Crude oil accounted for 80.6% of total exports in 2023, its export value grew by 37.4% y/y to N29trn vs +46.4%y/y recorded in 2022. Based on a separate data from the NURPC, average crude oil production (condensates inclusive) in 2023 was 1.47mbpd compared with 1.38mbpd in 2022. This is lower than the OPEC production quota for Nigeria which was 1.7mbpd.

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