March 19, 2024/CSL Research
According to data from the National Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC), Nigeria’s crude oil production including condensates, decreased by 6.33% m/m to 1.54 million barrels per day (mbpd) in February 2024, down from 1.63 mbpd in January 2024. Excluding condensates, the production dropped to 1.32 mbpd, compared with 1.43 mbpd in the
previous month, implying a loss of 104, 000 barrels per day all through the month under review. Persistent challenges such as pipeline vandalism, theft, and terminal shutdowns, have continued to hamper the growth of crude oil production in the country.
Further analysis of the data showed that production from Bonny Terminal decreased by 25.24% to 5.19 million barrels in February 2024 from 6.94 million barrels in January 2024. Forcados Terminal’s crude oil production decreased by 13.21% to 7.59 million barrels in February from the 8.75 million barrels produced in the previous month. Escravos Terminal produced 3.73 million barrels in February, a decrease of 12.04% from the 4.24 million barrels produced in January 2024. Production at the Brass and Qua Iboe terminals decreased by 16.05% and 13.66% to 752,687 barrels and 3.71 mbpd from 896,581 and 4.30 mbpd produced in January 2024.
Crude oil production in the first two months of 2024 have fallen short of the government’s target outlined in the 2024 budget. Nigeria had proposed a production rate of 1.78 million barrels per day (mbpd), which includes condensates, for the year 2024. However, various factors have impeded the growth of crude oil production, with persistent issues such as oil theft contributing to this stagnation. Given these challenges, it is unlikely that there will be a significant increase in crude oil production this year. Maintaining our forecast, we anticipate that Nigeria’s oil production will average around 1.56 mbpd in 2024. This projection is based on the government’s efforts to reactivate inactive oil terminals and revive dormant oil wells.
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