April 19, 2024/United Capital Research

Anglophone West Africa
Nigeria

• Inflation rose to 33.20% in March, says NBS

The National Bureau of Statistics has disclosed that Nigeria’s headline inflation rate increased to 33.20% in March 2024, up from 31.70% in February 2024. This represents a m/m increase of 1.50% points in the headline inflation rate, y/y data shows a significant 11.16% rise in the headline inflation rate from March 2023, which was at 22.04%. In addition, the m/m headline inflation rate for March 2024 was 3.02%, which is 0.10% lower than the rate recorded in February 2024. For the year ending in March 2024, the average Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 27.13% compared to the previous year, which was a rise of 6.76% from the 20.37% increase observed in March 2023.
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• Nigeria’s crude oil reserves hit 37.50bb —NUPRC

The Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) has said Nigeria’s crude oil reserves increased from 36.96 billion barrels (bb) on January 1, 2023, to 37.50bb on January 1, 2024. Also, the country’s Natural Gas reserves rose from N208.83 trillion Cubic Feet (TCF) on January 1, 2023, to 209.26TCF on January 1, 2024.
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• IMF reviews Nigeria’s economic growth to 3.3%

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has reviewed upwards Nigeria’s economic growth forecast for 2024 from 3.0% to 3.3%. this was announced in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook for April, which was released during the ongoing 2024 Spring Meetings of the World Bank and IMF in Washington, United States.
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• Cardoso links depleting external reserves to debt repayments

The CBN has clarified reasons for the significant decline in the nation’s foreign exchange reserves, asserting that it wasn’t primarily aimed at defending the Naira, as commonly believed, but rather to partially repay debts owed to creditors. Nigerians had raised concerns over the significant downturn of the country’s foreign exchange reserves, plunging by approximately $2.16bn in 29 days, amidst robust efforts to stabilise the Naira.
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• CBN announces decline in LDR to 50%

The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has reviewed the loan-to-deposit ratio (LDR) policy to align with its current monetary tightening, reducing the LDR by 15.0% points to 50.0%.
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Ghana

• Ghana fails to reach debt deal with international bondholders

Ghana has failed to secure a workable debt deal with two bondholder groups in its push to restructure $13 billion of international bonds, the government said on Monday, in a blow to its efforts to swiftly emerge from default and economic crisis. Formal talks were on hold for now after the International Monetary Fund indicated that the deal would not fit its debt sustainability parameters, the government said in a statement.
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• IMF projects almost 5% growth rate for Ghana in 2025

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has projected a robust growth of 4.4% for Ghana in 2025. This forecast marks a significant increase from the 2.8% growth projected for 2024. The IMF made this announcement in its latest April World Economic Outlook at the ongoing spring meetings in Washington DC.
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• Fitch predicts weakening profitability for Ghanaian banks due to BoG’s CRR policy

Fitch, a global rating agency, has forecasted that the profitability of Ghanaian banks is expected to weaken in the coming weeks following the Bank of Ghana’s (BoG) recent decision to tie cash reserve ratio (CRR) requirements to loans/deposit ratios (LDRs). This move is seen as a response to the current economic climate in Ghana.
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Francophone West Africa
Senegal

• Senegal Inflation Rate Quickens to 6-Month High of 3.3%

The annual inflation rate in Senegal rose for the third month to 3.3% in March 2024, the highest in six months, up from 2.3% in the prior month. Upward pressure came mostly from prices of food & non-alcoholic beverages, communication, miscellaneous goods & services, restaurants & hotels, and recreation & culture. Monthly, consumer prices increased by 0.2%, following a 0.6% rise in the preceding month.
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• Moody’s Ratings announces completion of a periodic review

Moodyʼs Ratings has completed a periodic review of the ratings of Senegal and other ratings that are associated with this issuer. The review was conducted through a rating committee in which Moodyʼs Ratings reassessed the appropriateness of the ratings in the context of the relevant principal methodology(ies), and recent developments.
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• Senegal’s Sonko Names Former Tax Collectors to Top Cabinet

Senegal Prime Minister Ousmane Sonko favored expertise over political experience in picking his first cabinet, and named two former tax collectors for the key ministries of oil and finance. The new government “embodies the systemic change requested by the Senegalese people,” Sonko said.
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Mail

• Niger to sell Mali 150 million litres of diesel for the country’s power plants

Niger’s Minister of Petroleum, Mines and Energy Mahaman Moustapha Barke Tuesday finalized an agreement with Energie du Mali (EDM-SA), which manages Mali’s electricity sector, for the sale of 150 million litres of diesel.
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• Mali, Mauritania discuss border security

Malian foreign minister Abdoulaye Diop and his defence counterpart, Col Sadio Camara, said talks with Mauritanian officials in Nouakchott on strengthening counter-terrorism cooperation between the two countries had re-affirmed strong ties between the two countries, state-run ORTM reported.
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Ivory Coast

• Côte d’Ivoire receives European support for sustainable agriculture initiative

Côte d’Ivoire has unveiled a plan to develop a certified green agricultural sector. The country partnered with Orange CI, the European Union, and German Cooperation (GIZ), to implement the “DigiGreen & Agri” project; an initiative aimed at modernizing agriculture and transition towards a green economy, with a particular focus on the cocoa industry.
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East Africa
Kenya

• Kenya to Debut $500 Million Sustainability-Linked Bond

The World Bank is aiding Kenya to issue Africa’s first sustainability-linked bond by the end of this year, as the East African nation broadens its external funding sources. The $500 million bond, which will have pre-determined sustainability performance goals, is expected to be issued by November, said Isfandyar Zaman Khan, lead financial sector specialist at the World Bank Kenya. “Kenya has promised a very ambitious sustainability agenda, which includes not just climate, but also social and health and energy.”
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• Rubis inks deal to operate the Kenyan National Oil in rescue plan

French oil multinational Rubis is set to become the strategic investor in National Oil Corporation of Kenya (NOC Kenya) in a deal aimed at reviving the struggling State-owned oil firm.
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• Kenya’s GDP Projected to Grow By 5pc, EY Tax Advisors

Kenya’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is expected to grow by around 5 percent in 2024, according to global tax advisors Ernst & Young (EY).
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• Ksh 52bn released back to economy through Court Annexed Mediation

Approximately Ksh 52.1 billion has been released back to the economy as a result of the expeditious resolution of cases through Court Annexed Mediation (CAM), data released by Chief Justice Martha Koome shows.
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Rwanda

• UK MPs Reject Changes to Rwanda Bill and Send It Back to Lords

Members of Parliament rejected changes made by the House of Lords to Rishi Sunak’s controversial legislation to declare Rwanda a safe destination for deported asylum seekers, punting the bill back to the UK’s upper chamber.
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• Rwanda scheme ‘could cost UK nearly £5bn in first five years’ for 30,000 migrants

Rwanda is ready to take more than 30,000 asylum seekers in the first five years of the deportation scheme at a potential cost to the UK of nearly £5 billion, leaked documents show. The Home Office documents say that although the scheme will start in a “tightly controlled” way with as few as 500 migrants deported in the first year, the agreement is designed to “incentivise” Rwanda to take “higher volumes”.
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Tanzania

• Tanzania central bank raises key interest rate to tackle inflationary pressure

Tanzania’s central bank raised its key interest rate on Thursday to stay ahead of lingering inflationary pressure from global economic developments despite satisfactory local conditions, its governor said.
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South Africa
Angola

• Angola March National Consumer Prices Rise 26.09% y/y

Angola’s national consumer prices rose 26.09% y/y in March versus +24.07% in February, according to the Instituto Nacional de Estatistica. Luanda CPI rise 35.74% y/y versus +32.61% in February.
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• S&P Sees ‘Modest’ Currency Depreciation in Angola Through 2027

Angola’s local currency, the kwanza, is expected to depreciate about 4% per year through 2027 after falling 39% last year, according to S&P Global Ratings. “Further kwanza weakness could exacerbate public debt vulnerabilities, since 78% of general government debt is either in or linked to foreign currency,” S&P analysts led by Leon Bezuidenhout wrote in a report.
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• Standard Bank Sees Angola’s 2024 GDP Growth Ticking Up to 1.1%

The pace may accelerate from 0.9% last year, but is slower than the government’s 3% target, Standard Bank says in a research note. Oil-reliant Angola needs crude prices to remain at current levels to sustain economic growth.
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South Africa

• South Africa inflation eases in March

South Africa’s inflation fell to 5.3% year on year in March in a sign that Africa’s most industrialized economy was winning the battle to bring down prices. Headline consumer inflation stood at 5.6% in February after reaching 5.3% in January, data from the statistics agency showed on Wednesday. Even then, South Africa’s central bank which targets inflation of between 3% and 6%, is not expected to announce interest rate cuts soon. The bank has kept its main interest rate unchanged at 8.25% for some months.
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• Godongwana Says S. African Growth Outlook Not Worth Celebrating

South Africa’s outlook of 1.6% annual economic growth over next three years not worth celebrating for a developing country, Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana says in discussion on sidelines of spring meetings of International Monetary Fund and World Bank in Washington.
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• South Africa Tax Agency Posts Constitutional Court Decision Clarifying Loan Tax Treatment Under VAT Act

The South African Revenue Service April 12 posted online the Constitutional Court Judgment for Case No. CCT 209/22, clarifying the tax treatment of loans in relation to deductions under the VAT Act.
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Zambia

• Zambia Copper Mines Hit by State Utility’s Warning of Power Cuts

Zambia’s state power utility has served notices of force majeure on supply of electricity to some mines, according to an industry association, threatening additional pressure on a copper market going through an unprecedented squeeze.
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• Zambia Seeks $900 Million as Drought Set to Halve Growth

Zambia needs about $900 million this year to deal with its worst drought on record in parts of the country that’s wiped out crops and is set to cut economic growth by more than half, Finance Minister Situmbeko Musokotwane said. The nation that’s normally a food exporter of corn, a staple, will harvest about two-thirds less of the crop this year than it did in 2023, he said in an interview Tuesday in Washington.
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Zimbabwe

• Zimbabwe Central Bank Chief Says He’ll Curb Excessive ZiG Gains

The ZiG has advanced 1.6% against the dollar since it was introduced on April 5, spurring concerns that it will hurt exporters who shipped $6.6 billion of gold, tobacco and other goods last year. Zimbabwe’s central bank is ready to intervene and curb excessive gains, Governor John Mushayavanhu said.
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• Zimbabwe Won’t Print More ZiG Notes Without Reserve Backing

Zimbabwe won’t print additional ZiG notes unless it has the reserves to back the new currency, as that could cause it to tank, central bank Governor John Mushayavanhu said. He noted that they are not going to increase the amount of money in circulation until it’s backed by adequate reserves.
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Central Africa
Cameroon

• Cameroon needs $371mln to provide humanitarian aid to 2.3mln people in 2024

The Cameroonian government is in need of $371.4 million to provide emergency humanitarian assistance to 2.3 million vulnerable people in 2024. This group makes up more than half of the 3.4 million people in need of humanitarian aid in the country, according to figures reported on April 16 by the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), during the launch of the 2024 Humanitarian Response Plan in Yaoundé.
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• Cameroon plans CFA2bn in cocoa quality bonuses for 2020-2022 seasons

During a press conference held in Yaoundé, Cameroon’s Minister of Commerce announced that the government plans to distribute a total of CFA2 billion in quality bonuses to cocoa producers for the 2020-2021 and 2021-2022 seasons. Registration of eligible producers, which began today in the cocoa-producing regions, will conclude on August 30, 2024. The distribution of the bonuses is scheduled between October 15 and December 15, Luc Magloire Mbarga Atangana specified.
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• African Development Bank Projects Improve Job Opportunities

The African Development Bank (AfDB) has underscored the success of its program aimed at bolstering job opportunities for young people in Cameroon. The meeting saw significant participation from female entrepreneurs and young graduates who have benefited from work placements in projects financed by the Bank.
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