October 25, 2024/CSL Research

Airtel Africa’s H1 2025 financial results revealed a 9.6% year-on-year (y/y) decline in Revenue, falling to US$2.37 billion from US$2.62 billion in H1 2024. However, on a quarter-on-quarter (q/q) basis, total Revenue showed marginal growth of 5.0%, increasing from US$1.16 billion in Q1 2025 to US$1.21 billion in Q2 2025. The y/y decline was primarily driven by significant currency devaluations across several countries, including Nigeria, Malawi, Zambia, and Tanzania. Notably, the Nigerian Naira depreciated from a weighted average NGN/USD rate of 610 in the previous period to 1,484 in the current half-year.

Data Revenue decreased by 7.7% y/y, dropping to US$844 million from US$915 million in H1 2024. Despite this decline, the company’s total customer base grew by 6.1% y/y to 156.6 million, reflecting the ongoing expansion of mobile data and mobile money services. Data customers rose by 10.4% y/y to 66.0 million while mobile money customers increased by 13.4% y/y to 41.5 million. Mobile money Revenue continued its upward trajectory, rising by 11.9% to US$466 million in H1 2025 from US$416 million in H1 2024. In contrast, voice Revenue experienced a sharp decline of 17.9% y/y, falling to US$960 million from US$1.17 billion in H1 2024.

Airtel H1 2025

Source: Company data, CSL Research

Direct Network Operating Costs fell by 5.7% in H1 2025 to US$463 million, down from US$491 million in H1 2024. Operating Expenses also declined by 1.7% year-on-year to US$832 million, compared to US$846 million in the prior period. Despite these cost reductions, the company’s EBITDA dropped by 16.5% year-on-year to US$1.09 billion from US$1.30 billion, primarily due to a more significant decline in Revenue. The EBITDA margin contracted by 377 basis points (bps) to 45.9% in H1 2025. Additionally, Operating Profit decreased by 20.2% year-on-year to US$706 million, compared to US$885 million in H1 2024, despite an 8.6% reduction in Depreciation and Amortization expenses to US$381 million.

Net Finance Costs decreased significantly, down 39.5% y/y to US$528 million from US$873 million in H1 2024. This reduction was driven by a 29.3% drop in Finance Costs amidst a 29.4% decline in Finance Income. The improvement in Net Finance Costs reflects lower derivative and foreign exchange losses, with FX losses falling to US$260 million in H1 2025 from US$654 million in the prior year.

As a result, the company reported a Pre-tax Profit of US$178 million in H1 2025, a substantial improvement from US$12 million in H1 2024. The Tax Expense increased to US$99 million, compared to US$25 million in the prior period, leading to a Net Profit of US$79 million, reversing the net loss of US$13 million recorded in H1 2024. Basic Earnings Per Share (EPS) improved to 0.8 cents, compared to a negative 1.5 cents in the prior period.

We maintain a target price of N3,010 per share, with a BUY recommendation on the stock. The current market price stands at N2,200 per share.

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​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Airtel Africa – H1 2025 Quick take.pdf​