July 8, 2025/CSL Research

According to recent data from the Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC), active mobile subscriptions rose slightly by 530,396—a modest year-on-year increase of 0.31%—from 172.14 million in May 2024 to 172.67 million in May 2025. However, on a month-on-month basis, the sector recorded a slight contraction.

Active subscriptions declined by 276,375, or 0.16%, from 172.95 million in April 2025 to 172.67 million in May. In our view, this month-on-month decline reflects short-term fluctuations that are not uncommon in the telecom sector. Such movements typically result from a combination of seasonal patterns, economic pressures, and technical or operational factors.

Telecom operators in Nigeria posted mixed results in May 2025. MTN, the country’s largest operator by subscriber base, recorded a slight decline, losing 258,313 subscribers to close the month at 90.25 million, down from 90.51 million in April.

Airtel, the second-largest operator, saw a moderate gain, adding 342,597 subscribers to reach 58.93 million, up from 58.59 million. Globacom posted a marginal increase, growing its subscriber base by 14,301 to 20.62 million, compared to 20.61 million in the previous month. In contrast, 9mobile experienced the sharpest decline, shedding 291,214 subscribers and reducing its total active base to 2.67 million, down from 2.96 million in April.

We expect the recovery in mobile subscriptions to gain momentum in the coming months, despite the recent monthly decline, as many previously deactivated lines are reconnected. Nigeria’s large and growing population remains a key driver of sector growth, with a significant portion of the population still lacking access to basic telecom services. Our 2025 outlook for the telecommunications industry remains positive.

The sector is well positioned for sustained recovery and long-term expansion, supported by several key trends: ongoing subscriber reactivation, recent tariff adjustments, the rapid rollout of 4G and 5G networks, rising broadband penetration and the continued shift from analog to digital services. These developments are making Nigeria’s telecom industry increasingly resilient and attractive for investment, offering strong potential for medium- to long-term returns.

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