July 22, 2025/United Capital Report

Rebased Q1-2025 GDP Shows Firmer Growth and Service-Led Expansion

Nigeria’s economic story took a significant turn as the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) released the rebased Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures, updating the base year from 2010 to 2019. This rebasing exercise, conducted to reflect structural changes and the growing relevance of new economic activities, revealed that the Nigerian economy is larger and more diversified than previously captured.

According to the newly released data, Nigeria’s real GDP grew by 3.13% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2025, compared to 2.27% reported same period in 2024. This growth, though moderate, is commendable given the broader macroeconomic headwinds, ranging from high inflation and exchange rate volatility to the lingering effects of fuel subsidy removal and fiscal tightening.

Perhaps more striking than the growth rate itself is the new size of the economy. Nigeria’s Real GDP is now estimated at N49.34 trillion compared to N18.28 trillion in the first quarter of 2024. This makes the economy 169.91% larger than it was a year ago. This revision solidifies Nigeria’s standing as Africa’s fourth largest economy and reflects the increasing contributions of sectors such as digital services, real estate, transport, and the informal economy.

Sectoral Contributions and Structural Shifts

The rebased GDP figures paint a more accurate picture of sectoral dynamics. The services sector emerged as the dominant force, expanding by 4.33% and contributing 57.50% to total GDP. Sub-sectors such as telecommunications, financial services, transport, and real estate recorded robust growth in real terms, with growth rates of 7.40%, 15.03%, 14.08%, and 4.61% respectively. In fact, the real estate sector, often under-reported in past data, now contributes more to GDP than crude oil.

irst Quarter 2025 GDP: Nigeria Charts a Path to Stronger Growth.