July 24, 2025/Cordros Report

 Airtel Africa Plc (AIRTELAFRI) released their Q1-26 unaudited financial results today (24 July), reporting an EPS of USD3.40 (Q1-25: USD0.18). The improvement was primarily driven by a strong uptick in operating income (+33.0% y/y) and a 33.9% y/y decline in total finance costs.

AIRTELAFRI’s group revenue increased by 22.4% y/y in Q1-26, reflecting the impact of higher mobile tariffs in Nigeria, and steady improvement in the Francophone Africa region. We highlight broad-based increases across the voice (+11.9% y/y), data (+34.1% y/y), mobile money (+31.0% y/y) and other (+8.7% y/y) revenue lines. Voice revenue growth was driven by sustained growth in customer base (+9.0% y/y to 169.40 million subs), and an increase in voice usage per subscriber (+1.4% y/y to 294 minutes per subscriber per month). Meanwhile, data revenue expanded on the back of a growth in customer base (+17.4% y/y) and data ARPU (+18.5% y/y). For context, management noted that there was an increase in data usage per subscriber to 7.8GB (Q1-25: 6.2GB), as smartphone penetration increased by 430bps to 45.9%. In the same vein, mobile money revenue was supported by an expanding subscriber base (+16.1% y/y) and higher ARPU (+11.3% y/y).

Nigeria revenue increased by 29.8% y/y, highlighting a turnaround from prior quarters. In constant currency, revenue grew by 48.6% y/y, owing to the higher mobile tariffs amid a growth in subscriber base (+6.3% y/y to 53.6 million subs) and higher ARPUs (+22.7% y/y to USD2.10). In reported currency, we cite a 29.8% y/y increase in revenue, with the lower growth magnitude due to naira devaluation – Q1-26: NGN1,585.00/USD vs Q1-25: NGN1,384.00/USD.

East Africa revenue grew by 16.9% y/y in constant currency terms, driven by a 9.8% y/y increase in total subs to 79.10 million. Management attributed this growth to the expansion of network coverage and the increasing scale of the distribution network. In reported currency, revenue grew by 17.6% y/y, with the higher growth figure due to the appreciation of the Ugandan shilling.

In Francophone Africa, revenue grew 14.8% y/y in constant currency terms, highlighting the still strong contribution of data (+41.9% y/y) to total revenue outturn from the region. Management noted that data subs increased by 29.9% y/y, with sustained investments still driving strong usage, as data usage per customer increased to 6.10 GB per month (Q1-25: 4.80 GB per month per user), alongside a 4.7% increase in smartphone penetration to 44.0%.  In reported currency, revenue grew 17.7% y/y, due to an appreciation of the CFA.

Meanwhile, mobile money revenue increased by 30.3% y/y, fueled by an expanded Airtel Money distribution network, a 16.1% y/y increase in customers to 45.8 million, and a 35.0% y/y increase in transaction value to USD40.50 billion. In constant currency, mobile money revenue grew by 30.3% y/y.

EBITDA grew by 29.8% y/y, leading to a 276bps increase in EBITDA margin to 48.0%, driven by the stellar topline growth and lower cost pressures. Notably, EBITDA margin grew in Nigeria (+750bps y/y to 55.7%) and Francophone Africa (+240bps y/y to 39.5%) but declined in East Africa (-55bps y/y to 46.1%).

Further down, total finance costs fell by 33.9% y/y, mostly reflecting a turnaround in reported FX losses. Specifically, AIRTELAFRI reported derivative and foreign exchange gains of c. USD22.00 million (vs derivative and foreign exchange losses of USD136.00 million in Q1-25).

Overall, AIRTELAFRI reported a profit before tax (PBT) of USD272.69 million (+268.5% y/y) and a profit after tax (PAT) of USD155.78 million (+405.9% y/y).
 
Comment: Airtel Africa’s Q1-26 results showed a solid recovery, particularly highlighting the impact of higher Nigeria mobile tariffs, amid a continuously expanding subscriber base. Looking ahead, we expect revenue and profitability to be sustained, benefitting from expanding data and mobile money services, sustained impact of the tariff hike in Nigeria, disciplined cost management, recently concluded tower lease renegotiation with ATC, and reduced FX exposure. Our estimates are under review.