September 29, 2025/InvestmentOne Report
The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) has released the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report for the second quarter of 2025. The figures showed that the Nigerian economy strengthened in Q2 following the Q1 rebasing, as real GDP expanded by 4.23% YoY in Q2:2025, compared to 3.48% in Q2:2024 and 3.13% in Q1:2025. This marks the fastest pace of expansion in recent quarters and reflects the momentum gained since the GDP rebasing exercise earlier this year, which adjusted the base year from 2010 to 2019.
The core driver in the improvement in GDP was clearly the oil sector growth as it expanded by 20.46% YoY in Q2:2025. In nominal terms, GDP at basic prices stood at NGN100.73trn in Q2:2025, compared to NGN94.05trn in Q1:2025 and NGN84.48trn in Q2:2024. This translates to a 7.10% QoQ growth and a 19.23% YoY increase, signaling both cyclical momentum and structural resilience across key sectors.
For H2:2025, we expect the year-on-year GDP growth rate to be sustained between 3.25% – 4.25%. Our expectation is hinged on continuous expansion in the Services sector, as we posit that ICT and trade will continue to be the major drivers of growth.
Elsewhere, we see crude oil production closing the second half of the year at about 1.8MMbpd (including condensates), aided by an increased rig count and insecurity clampdown efforts by authorities. Also, an expected sustained seasonal lift in the agriculture sector amidst a disinflationary environment should gradually relieve interest rate – sensitive sectors. Downside risks such as insecurity setbacks in food producing regions, power grid instability, and any relapse in FX liquidity could tamper with the growth momentum thus far.
Kindly find HERE, the full report, covering our analysis and considerations.
