November 6, 2025/CSL Report
Nigeria’s Excess Crude Account (ECA) and Stabilisation Account have both recorded notable increases between June 2023 and October 2025, reflecting renewed fiscal discipline and stronger revenue mobilisation at the federal level. Data presented by the accountant-general of the federation to the National Economic Council (NEC) show that the ECA grew by 13% over the two-year period, while the Stabilisation Account more than tripled in value. Between 15 June 2023 and 23 October 2025, the Excess Crude Account balance rose from US$473,754.57 at the administration’s first NEC meeting to US$535,823.39 by October 2025. Over the same period, the Stabilisation Account increased sharply from ₦26.63 billion to ₦87.67 billion, representing a gain of ₦61.03 billion or approximately 229%. Similarly, the Development of Natural Resources Fund grew from ₦96.90 billion to ₦141.59 billion, marking a 46% increase.
A month-by-month analysis reveals fluctuations in these balances over the review period. The Stabilisation Account fell to ₦17.21 billion in April 2024 before rebounding strongly through 2025. Likewise, the Development of Natural Resources Fund dipped to ₦26.85 billion in November 2024, then recovered steadily to ₦125.82 billion in September and ₦141.59 billion in October 2025. In contrast, the Excess Crude Account remained largely stable for most of the period, posting only a modest uptick in the second half of 2025. This stability suggests a conservative drawdown approach by fiscal authorities, consistent with efforts to rebuild Nigeria’s external buffers and strengthen macroeconomic resilience.
Established in 2004 under the administration of former President Olusegun Obasanjo, the Excess Crude Account (ECA) serves as a sovereign savings buffer for oil revenues earned above the benchmark crude price set in the national budget. The Stabilisation Account, by contrast, provides a financial cushion to state and local governments during periods of revenue shortfall, helping to sustain essential public services and fiscal obligations. At the national level, stronger balances in these funds enhance fiscal resilience, boost the
government’s ability to manage macroeconomic shocks, and reinforce confidence in Nigeria’s economic management. For state governments, a healthier Stabilisation Account offers greater access to bailout or intervention funds when oil receipts decline, helping to maintain the payment of salaries, infrastructure investment, and social programmes.
However, sustaining this positive momentum will hinge on several critical factors. Persistent crude oil theft, production disruptions, global oil price volatility, and weak fiscal discipline across different tiers of government continue to pose significant challenges. Frequent withdrawals for short-term budgetary support could also undermine recent gains. Moreover, the global energy transition, marked by the shift toward clean energy and declining dependence on fossil fuels may limit future oil revenue inflows into these accounts. Overall, if the recent buildup in the Excess Crude Account and Stabilisation Account is supported by stronger oil production, enhanced revenue collection, and sound fiscal governance, these improved balances can help strengthen financial stability at both national and subnational levels and enhance Nigeria’s capacity to absorb external shocks in the years ahead.
Click here to download full report: CSL Nigeria Daily – 06 November 2025 – Government Revenue.pdf
