November 17, 2025/Cordros Report
Based on data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), Nigeria’s headline inflation continued its descent, easing by 196bps to 16.05% y/y in October (September: 18.02% y/y), reflecting moderation across food (-375bps to 13.12% y/y vs September: 16.87% y/y) and core (-84bps to 18.69% y/y vs September: 19.53% y/y) inflation. Conversely, on a month-on-month basis, consumer prices edged higher by 21bps to 0.93% (September: +0.72% m/m) – the first increase since July.
Food prices continued to ease in October, with the food index declining by 0.37% m/m (September: -1.57% m/m), albeit at a slower pace than in the previous month. The ongoing main crop harvest — typically running from mid-September to December, except in years of severe flooding — has kept market supply high and helped cap price pressures. As such, the farm produce sub-component recorded a flat rate of 0.0% m/m (September: -0.68% m/m), during the period. At the same time, imported food inflation slowed noticeably, rising by 0.38% m/m compared with 3.38% m/m in September. This softer increase mirrors the recent appreciation of the naira, which has eased cost pressures on imported food items.
Core inflation, by contrast, remained sticky, holding at 1.42% m/m in October after only a slight moderation in September (–1bp to 1.42% m/m). The slight firming in underlying price pressures largely reflected higher fuel and transport costs in October, which offset the impact of softer prices for some imported and non-food items. Price growth eased across several categories, including furnishings, household equipment and maintenance (down 262bps to 0.91% m/m), education services (-190bps to 0.78% m/m), health (-127bps to 0.57% m/m), recreation, sport & culture (-25bps to 0.80% m/m), and clothing and footwear (-19bps to 0.38% m/m). However, these gains were outweighed by firmer increases in restaurants and accommodation services (+200bps to 2.10% m/m), utilities (+141bps to 2.86% m/m), transport (+201bps to 2.92% m/m), and insurance & financial services (+262bps to 1.71% m/m), leaving core inflation broadly unchanged on the month.
Annual Inflation to Ease, Monthly Print to Tick Up on Festive Spending
Headline inflation is likely to continue moderating on an annual basis, with favourable base effects remaining a key driver of the disinflation trend. However, on a month-on-month basis, consumer prices may edge higher in November, reflecting stronger seasonal demand. In particular, increased stockpiling by households and retailers ahead of the December festive period is likely to lift demand for food and other consumer goods, pushing up prices in key categories such as food, transport and hospitality. This seasonal price pressure is expected to result in a modest increase in the monthly inflation rate, even as the annual rate continues to ease. Accordingly, we forecast headline inflation to decline to 14.24% y/y in November (October: 16.05% y/y), with the m/m print rising to 1.05% from 0.93% in October.
