November 18, 2025/InvestmentOne Report
Nigeria s headline inflation rate decelerated for the seventh consecutive month in October 2025, easing by 196bps to 16.05% YoY, driven by sustained declines across the food and core basket. Food inflation fell by 375bps to 13.12% YoY, while core inflation slowed by 84bps to 18.69% YoY. The continued disinflation remained hinged on the impact of the harvest season, foreign exchange (FX) stability, and favourable base effects.
However, on a monthly basis, headline inflation rate inched up by 21bps to 0.93% MoM, due to a slower contraction in the food index (0.37% vs 1.57% in September), while the core index held steady at 1.42% MoM.
Inflation is expected to maintain its downward trend in November 2025, due to the ongoing harvest season which should continue to support lower food prices in the near term amid the appreciating foreign exchange. However, festive-season stockpiling poses a near-term risk, as increased demand for food, clothing, and transportation could momentarily slow the pace of disinflation.
The CBN s monetary policy committee is scheduled to meet on November 24 and 25. We expect the committee to lower interest rate by 50-100bps based on the easing inflation, FX stability and the relatively positive GDP performance. We, retain our forecast for headline inflation to close 2025 within the 15.00% 16.00%.
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