November 19, 2025/CSL Update

Nigeria’s external reserves have climbed to their highest level in seven years, reaching US$46.7 billion as of 14 November 2025, according to the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN). The CBN Governor, Olayemi Cardoso, noted that this milestone, which was last recorded in 2018, reflects renewed investor confidence, stronger oil receipts, and improved balance-of-payments inflows. We note that renewed investor confidence, reflected in the rise in offshore inflows, has been supported by clearer monetary policy guidance and ongoing foreign exchange reforms, which have helped stabilise the local currency and narrow the spread between the official and parallel market rates.

A key driver of the recent reserve accretion is the resilience of Nigeria’s external sector, despite relatively weak global oil prices. The current account surplus widened to US$5.3 billion in Q2 2025, from US$2.9 billion in Q1 2025, largely reflecting a sharp contraction in imports alongside a modest rise in export receipts. This reduction in the import bill has eased foreign-exchange demand pressures, while non-oil inflows have strengthened on the back of tighter monetary conditions that are drawing foreign portfolio investors back into the fixed-income market.

At the same time, ongoing reforms to improve transparency in the FX framework and curb speculative activity have supported market confidence and reduced exchange-rate volatility. Moreover, we highlight that the recent US$2.3 billion Eurobond issuance, expected to contribute roughly US$1.2 billion to external reserves after refinancing obligations, could help reinforce Naira stability through the remainder of the year.

Looking ahead, sustaining the upward trajectory in reserves will depend on maintaining policy consistency, boosting oil production, and strengthening non-oil FX-generating sectors. Continued progress on fiscal-monetary coordination, particularly reforms aimed at enhancing export diversification and deepening financial markets will be critical to preserving investor confidence. While the current reserve buffer provides important policy space, external vulnerabilities such as oil price swings and global liquidity tightening remain key risks that could test the resilience of the reserve position.

Click here to download full report: ​​​​​​​​CSL Nigeria Daily – 19 November 2025 – Economy .pdf​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​