December 2, 2025/InvestmentOne Report
According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), Nigeria s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) expanded by 3.98% in Q3:2025, higher than 3.86% YoY recorded in Q3:2024. On a quarterly basis, economic growth slowed from 4.23% YoY seen in the prior quarter, driven by the modest expansion in the oil sector (+5.84% YoY) and non-oil sector (+3.91% YoY). Notably, improvements in inflationary pressures amid the stable foreign exchange rate environment continued to support the positive economic growth momentum.
We expect the Nigerian economy to grow between 4.00% – 4.25% in FY:2025, hinged on the improving macroeconomic environment. The banking and insurance sector recapitalization exercise should spur activities within the financial services sector, while the continued operations of the Dangote Refinery should support growth in the oil refining segment of the manufacturing sector.
Though interest rates remain elevated, the 50bps rate cut implemented by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) should provide some relief for corporates in the near to medium term. Elsewhere, oil sector is expected to extend its positive performance as production gradually recovers due to improved pipeline security and higher rig activity.
The commencement of the 2025 Licensing Round, effective December 1, 2025, should bode well for the oil sector, with the Federal Government aiming to lift production by an additional 1.00MMbpd in the medium term.
Kindly find HERE, the full report, covering our analysis and considerations.
