Global Markets:

United States

The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure, the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, rose to 2.9%, signalling firmer underlying price pressures and keeping inflation above the Fed’s 2% target. This development complicates expectations for near-term rate cuts, as policymakers are likely to remain cautious in easing monetary policy. As a result, both markets and corporates are closely monitoring PCE trends for clearer guidance on the timing and pace of any future rate adjustments.

Euro Area

In the Euro Area, industrial production fell by 1.4% month-on-month in December 2025, suggesting manufacturing activity ended the year on a weaker footing.

Asia

Across Asia, inflation also showed signs of easing, supporting the broader narrative of moderating price pressures. Japan’s annual inflation slowed to 1.5% in January 2026 from 2.1% in the previous month, the lowest level since March 2022.

Oil Markets

Oil prices strengthened over the week, with Brent rising to around US$71/bbl from US$68/bbl, supported by a sizeable draw in US crude inventories reported in the latest Weekly Petroleum Status Report by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), signalling tighter near-term supply. Additionally, the US-Iran issues triggered crude oil prices upward. However, the broader outlook from the International Energy Agency (IEA) and the EIA’s Short-Term Energy Outlook suggests global supply is expected to outpace demand growth in 2026, indicating that despite short-term support, the medium-term market balance remains relatively well supplied.

Outlook:

This week we are expecting markets to remain largely data-dependent, with Europe in focus as final January inflation and business sentiment indicators help clarify the strength of demand and the likely policy path. In Asia, Japan’s Tokyo CPI (Consumer Price Index) will be closely watched for further evidence of easing price pressures and implications for monetary policy. In the United States, with no major top-tier releases immediately ahead, trading may be driven more by Federal Reserve commentary, positioning and broader risk sentiment, while oil prices are likely to remain sensitive to inventory data and supply expectations. 

Domestic Economy:

Nigeria’s headline inflation edged down slightly to 15.10% from 15.15%, indicating a mild easing in price pressures. While the decline is small, it suggests inflation may be stabilising, though overall cost levels remain high.

Equity Market:

The Nigerian Exchange All Share Index (NGX-ASI) rose by 6.95% week on week (W/W), closing at 194,989.75 points. Market capitalisation stood at ₦125.16tn and year to date return stood at 25.30%. Industrial Goods sector recorded the best gain during the week while Insurance sector recorded the least performance.

Fixed Income and Money Market:

The fixed income market was mixed during the week. In the Treasury bills space, yields were higher at the short end (, while the 91-day and especially the 364-day NTB declined, suggesting selective demand for longer tenors. The policy rate (OPR) remained unchanged at 22.50%, indicating a stable monetary stance. In the bond market, movements were modest, with the 7-year yield declining notably while the 5-year edged up slightly, reflecting cautious positioning and balanced liquidity conditions across the curve.

Outlook:

Equity Market

This week, we expect the positive momentum in the equity market to persist, supported by strong year-to-date performance and improving investor sentiment. However, given the recent sharp gains, some profit-taking may emerge, leading to more selective buying, particularly in fundamentally sound stocks across the Oil & Gas, Industrial Goods and Banking sectors.

Fixed Income Market

This week, we expect yields to remain relatively stable with a slight upward bias at the short end, as the interbank rate remains unchanged at 22.50% and liquidity conditions stay tight. Demand for longer-dated instruments may continue if investors position ahead of potential moderation in inflation, but overall, the monetary environment is likely to remain cautious.