March 2, 2026/United Capital Report

Global Markets:

United States

In the US, unemployment claims edged up slightly to 212,000 from 208,000. While this represents a small increase, the level remains low by historical standard, indicating that widespread job cuts are not taking place. The four-week average rose modestly to 220,250, suggesting only a slight cooling in hiring conditions. This means fewer people are remaining on unemployment benefits. Overall, the figures point to a labour market that remains stable and resilient.

Euro Area

In Europe, the latest Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) survey showed that private sector activity improved slightly in February, with the Composite PMI rising to 51.9 points from 51.3 points in January. As readings above 50 points signal expansion, this indicates that the economy is still growing at a modest pace. The improvement suggests that business activity is holding up and that the region is avoiding a sharper slowdown, even though overall growth remains relatively subdued.

Asia

Across Asia, price pressures in Japan continued to ease, with headline inflation slowing to 1.5% year-on-year in January 2026 from 2.1% in December, while core inflation stood at 2.0%. This suggests moderating cost pressures and gives the Bank of Japan room to remain patient on policy. In China, interest rates were left unchanged, with the 1-year Loan Prime Rate at 3.0% and the 5-year rate at 3.5%, indicating no fresh stimulus. Meanwhile, Japan’s Composite PMI rose to 53.8 points in February from 53.1 points, signalling improved business momentum. Overall, the region appears stable, with moderate growth and easing inflation pressures.

Oil Markets

Crude oil prices eased slightly this week, but tension between the US and Iran continue to keep the market cautious. Concerns that any escalation could disrupt supply particularly through the Strait of Hormuz, a key global shipping route have kept prices sensitive to geopolitical developments. While diplomatic talks have helped limit sharp spikes, uncertainty around the situation is still providing underlying support to the oil market.

Outlook:

This week, global markets are likely to trade cautiously, supported by resilient US labour conditions, modest expansion in Europe, and stable economic signals across Asia, including easing inflation in Japan and steady policy in China. While underlying fundamentals remain relatively firm, investors will continue to monitor inflation trends, Central Banks’ signals and geopolitical risks. Oil prices are expected to stay sensitive to tension between the US and Iran, where any escalation could push prices higher, while diplomatic progress may help ease pressure. 

Domestic Economy:

Nigeria’s economy expanded by 4.07% year-on-year in Q4 2025, bringing full-year growth to 3.87% and reinforcing steady recovery momentum, largely driven by the services and non-oil sectors. Strong activity in telecoms, trade, real estate, agriculture and mining reflects improving diversification and rising business volumes, creating broader investment and advisory opportunities. In addition, the Monetary Policy Committee’s 0.50% rate cut to 26.50%, supported by easing inflation and exchange rate stability, signals a shift towards supporting growth, which should lower borrowing costs, improve liquidity and create a more favourable environment for investment in 2026.

Equity Market:

The Nigerian Exchange All Share Index (NGX-ASI) fell by 1.11% week on week (W/W), closing at 192,826.77 points. Market capitalisation stood at ₦123.76tn and year to date return stood at 23.91%. The Banking sector recorded the best gain during the week while the consumer Goods sector recorded the least performance.

Fixed Income and Money Market:

The fixed income market recorded mixed movements during the week. In the Treasury bills segment, yields declined at the short end, with the 182-day NTB easing to 17.47%, while the 91-day and 364-day tenors rose to 16.53% and 18.48% respectively, indicating renewed demand at the short end but some upward repricing in the mid and long end of the curve. The O/N rate declined to 22.25%. Notably, the Monetary Policy Committee cut the policy rate by 0.50% to 26.50%, signalling a gradual shift towards supporting growth amid easing inflation pressures. In the bond market, yields generally moderated, particularly at the mid-to-long end, with the 5-year, 7-year and 10-year yields declining, suggesting improved investor appetite and expectations of a softer rate environment following the policy adjustment.

Outlook:

Equity Market

This week, the equity market may trade with a mildly positive bias as lower interest rates improve sentiment and enhance the attractiveness of equities relative to fixed income instruments. Banking stocks could continue to see interest given their recent resilience, while broader market performance will depend on investor confidence, liquidity flows and corporate earnings expectations. Overall, improved macro stability and supportive policy signals may help cushion downside risks.

Fixed Income Market

This week, the fixed income market is likely to remain cautiously supported following the MPC’s 0.50% rate cut to 26.50%, which signals a more accommodative stance. Improved liquidity and easing inflation expectations could keep short-term yields relatively stable, while mid-to-long dated instruments may continue to see mild demand as investors position for a softer rate environment. However, selective upward repricing at certain tenors may persist depending on auction supply and system liquidity conditions.