The domestic stock market closed higher this week, recording gains in four of the five trading sessions. Precisely, buying interest in DANGCEM (+4.6%), MTNN (+4.0%), BUACEMENT (+2.7%), and ARADEL (+9.1%) drove the All Share Index higher by 2.2% w/w to 196,985.94 points.
March 6, 2026/Cordros Report
Global
According to the Bureau of Labour Statistics, total non-farm payroll employment in the US fell by 92,000 jobs in February, from the revised addition of 126,000 in January – and a total reversal of market expectations of 59,000 job gains. Most notably, the decline was largely driven by lower healthcare employment (-28,000), reversing January’s gain of 77,000, as a strike at Kaiser Permanente sidelined more than 30,000 workers in Hawaii and California. Additional job losses were recorded in manufacturing (-12,000), despite ongoing tariff policies aimed at encouraging domestic production. Employment also declined in the information sector (-11,000), partly reflecting workforce adjustments related to artificial intelligence. Similarly, employment in transportation and warehousing fell by 11,000, as layoffs among couriers and messengers more than offset gains in air transportation. Elsewhere, federal government employment continued to decline, falling by an additional 10,000 jobs, bringing the total job losses to 330,000 since its peak in September 2024. Conversely, employment in social assistance (+9,000) continued its upward trend, supported by continued hiring in individual and family services. Following the headline job losses, the broad-based unemployment rate edged higher to 4.4% m/m (January: 4.3% m/m), while the labour force participation rate moderated slightly to 62.0% m/m (January: 62.1% m/m). Looking ahead, we expect job growth to remain modest as labour market momentum continues to soften. This primarily reflects slower hiring demand amid elevated interest rates, ongoing cost rationalisation by firms, and increasing productivity gains from technology adoption, including artificial intelligence. Nonetheless, with layoffs remaining relatively contained and broader economic activity still expanding, the labour market is likely to remain broadly stable in the near term, reinforcing the Federal Reserve’s cautious, wait-and-see approach at its next policy meeting.
According to data from S&P Global, the UK Composite PMI remained unchanged at its 17-month high of 53.70 points in February (January: 53.70), reflecting a resilient private sector activity, albeit undershooting market expectations of 53.90 points. The steady reading was underpinned by stronger manufacturing output, which offset the moderation in services activity. Specifically, the Manufacturing PMI rose to 52.50 points (January: 51.60), marking its fastest expansion since September 2024, supported by stronger inflows of new orders, improved client confidence, and a rebound in export demand. In contrast, the services PMI eased marginally to 53.90 points (January: 54.00) as firms faced elevated input costs, largely stemming from higher labour expenses. Nonetheless, the services sector remained firmly in expansionary territory, supported by solid domestic demand, although export orders stayed relatively subdued amid heightened geopolitical uncertainty. Meanwhile, employment declined for the 17th consecutive month, as firms continued to adjust to minimum wage increases, exacerbating cost pressures across the private sector. Looking ahead, we expect UK private sector activity to remain in expansionary territory, supported by resilient domestic demand and continued improvement in manufacturing output. However, the pace of expansion could moderate amid persistent cost pressures, particularly higher labour costs, alongside lingering uncertainty surrounding both the domestic and global economic outlook. In addition, heightened geopolitical tensions could weigh on business confidence, likely prompting firms to maintain a cautious stance toward hiring and investment decisions.
Global Market
Risk-off sentiment dominated global equities this week as the escalating conflict in the Middle East weighed heavily on investor confidence. Concerns over the potential impact of the crisis on energy prices, inflation, and interest rate expectations unsettled financial markets, raising fears of a broader global economic slowdown. At the time of writing, major US indices (DJIA: -3.5%; S&P 500: -1.7%; NASDAQ 100: -0.4%) were set to close lower, as investors priced in the inflationary risks arising from the war in Iran and the potential for renewed supply chain disruptions. Sentiment was further weakened by softer-than-expected labour market data. At the same time, European equities (STOXX Europe: -4.6%; FTSE 100: -4.6%) closed lower, as the global risk-off mood spilled into the region. Investor concerns centred on the possibility that the conflict could trigger an energy supply shock, further clouding Europe’s growth outlook. Asian markets (Nikkei 225: -5.5%; SSE: -0.9%) were similarly weaker amid the broader global risk-off tone. Further pressures emerged from remarks by the Bank of Japan Governor, indicating that the Middle East conflict could materially affect the domestic economy, reinforcing expectations that the central bank may keep rates unchanged for longer. Elsewhere, emerging and frontier market indices (MSCI EM: -6.7%; MSCI FM: -3.9%) declined, reflecting losses in China (-0.9%) and Vietnam (-6.0%), respectively.
Nigeria
Domestic Economy
According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), Company Income Tax (CIT) collections increased by 6.6% q/q to NGN2.96 trillion in Q3-25 (Q2-25: NGN2.78 trillion). We attribute the increase to stronger corporate earnings, supported by improving business activity amid gradually stabilising macroeconomic conditions. Additionally, enhanced tax administration by the Federal Inland Revenue Service (FIRS)—particularly through expanded compliance and stricter enforcement—likely reinforced the growth in collections. Analysing the composition, local CIT collections declined by 47.7% q/q to NGN1.21 trillion, accounting for 40.8% of total receipts, while foreign CIT payments surged by 273.9% q/q to NGN1.75 trillion, representing 59.2% of total collections. On a year-on-year basis, however, total CIT collections rose sharply by 67.2% (Q3-24: NGN1.77 trillion). Looking ahead, we expect Company Income Tax (CIT) collections to remain on an upward trajectory in the near term, supported by the implementation of new tax reforms aimed at strengthening revenue mobilization and improving collection efficiency. In addition, improving FX liquidity, firmer consumer demand, and moderating energy costs could support stronger corporate earnings, thereby underpinning CIT receipts over the short to medium term.
According to data from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), Credit to the Private Sector (CPS) declined by 2.8% y/y to NGN75.24 trillion in January (January 2025: NGN77.38 trillion). We note that the transmission of recent monetary easing remains gradual, while relatively tight liquidity conditions continue to constrain banks’ capacity and appetite to extend new credit to businesses and households. In contrast, credit to the government surged by 36.6% y/y to NGN34.19 trillion (January 2025: NGN25.03 trillion), reflecting increased domestic borrowings by the Federal Government to finance fiscal deficits. Meanwhile, broad money supply (M3) rose by 11.0% y/y to NGN123.36 trillion, supported by growth in both narrow money (+15.1% y/y) and quasi-money (+9.2% y/y) components. On a month-on-month basis, CPS declined by 0.8% in January, reversing the 1.6% m/m increase recorded in December (NGN75.83 trillion). Given the Monetary Policy Committee’s (MPC) cautious and gradual approach to monetary easing, credit conditions are likely to remain relatively tight in the near term. In our view, elevated interest rates and persistent risk aversion among banks could continue to constrain the pace of private sector credit expansion.
Capital Markets
Equities
The domestic stock market closed higher this week, recording gains in four of the five trading sessions. Precisely, buying interest in DANGCEM (+4.6%), MTNN (+4.0%), BUACEMENT (+2.7%), and ARADEL (+9.1%) drove the All Share Index higher by 2.2% w/w to 196,985.94 points. Consequently, the year-to-date returns settled higher at +26.6%. On trading activity, trading volume and value declined by 32.7% w/w and 31.7%, respectively. Across Sectors, performance was mixed, as Oil & Gas (+9.4%), Industrial Goods (+3.9%) and Banking (+0.2%) indices advanced, while the Insurance (-1.9%) and Consumer Goods (-0.1%) indices declined.
Next week, we expect cautious trading as investors lock in gains from recent market advances while closely monitoring geopolitical developments. Over the medium term, market direction is likely to be shaped by macroeconomic trends, Q1-26 earnings releases, corporate actions, and the durability of both foreign and domestic investor flows.
Money Market and Fixed Income
Money Market
The OVN rate increased by 4bps to 22.2%, as debits from net NTB allotments (NGN758.75 billion) and OMO PMA (NGN491.60 billion) offset the NGN956.20 billion inflow from OMO maturities and NGN64.19 billion inflows from FGN bond coupon payments. Nonetheless, system liquidity remained robust, with the average net long position settling at NGN4.22 trillion, compared with NGN3.14 trillion in the prior week.
In the absence of mop-up activities next week, we project NGN1.69 trillion in inflows from OMO maturities to bolster liquidity, potentially moderating the OVN rate. However, the preceding could be undermined by net NTB allotments at next Wednesday’s NTB auction.
Treasury Bills
Sentiments were mixed in the Treasury Bills secondary market with NTB yields advancing by 23bps to 17.5%, while OMO yields declined 7bps to 21.1%. In the NTB market, yields trended higher as investors sold off bills ahead of the auction, anticipating higher stop rates amid a more risk averse global backdrop. OMO yields however tapered, supported by the strong liquidity. All told, the average yield across all instruments increased by 4bps to 19.3%. At Wednesday’s NTB primary market auction, the DMO offered NGN1.05 trillion across tenors, with total demand reaching NGN2.34 trillion, translating to a bid-to-offer ratio of 2.2x. The DMO ultimately allotted NGN1.01 trillion, implying a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.3x. Stop rates increased on the 91-Day tenor by 15bps to 15.95% and on the 364-Day tenor by 83bps to 16.73%, while the 182-Day tenor remained unchanged at 16.65%. The CBN conducted an OMO auction, offering NGN600.00 billion across the 8, 99, and 106‑Day maturities. However, only NGN256.00 billion was allotted, with a stop rate of 19.40% on the 106-Day. The CBN conducted another OMO auction, offering N600.00 billion across the 7, 98, and 105-Day maturities. Consequently, only NGN235.60 billion was allotted on the 105-Day bill, with the stop rate maintained at 19.40%.
Given our expectation of robust system liquidity, we anticipate yields in the Treasury bills secondary market to moderate. Furthermore, the DMO is scheduled to conduct an NTB PMA next Wednesday (March 11), with NGN850.00 billion worth of bills on offer.
Bonds
Sentiments in the FGN bond market weakened as investors offloaded bonds amid rising geopolitical risks linked to the US Iran conflict. Consequently, average yields increased by 21bps to 15.8%. Across the curve, the average yield increased at the short (+15bps), mid (+61bps), and long (+4bps) segments following sell pressures on the FEB-2031 (+42bps), JUN-2033 (+64bps), and MAR-2036 (+32bps) bonds, respectively.
Over the medium to long term, FGN bond yields are likely to pare, driven by expectations of a sustained easing cycle and sizable liquidity in the financial system.
Foreign Exchange
The naira depreciated this week by 1.7% w/w to NGN1,392.63/USD amid the abovementioned geopolitical tensions. Notably, the USD300.00 million intervention and inflows from offshore participants helped keep demand pressures at bay. Also, the gross FX reserves increased this week by USD236.21 million w/w to USD49.93 billion (March 5), marking the eleventh consecutive week of increase. In the forwards market, the naira rates depreciated across the 1-month (-1.8% to NGN1,413.80/USD), 3-month (-2.0% to NGN1,455.34/USD), 6-month (-1.8% to NGN1,501.648/USD) and 1-year (-1.9% to NGN1,599.08/USD) contracts.
Demand pressures on the naira are likely to persist in the near term, reflecting heightened global risk aversion amid ongoing geopolitical tensions, which have strengthened safe-haven demand for the US dollar and moderated capital flows to emerging and frontier markets. Nonetheless, we expect any depreciation of the naira to remain relatively contained, with the currency likely to retain its strength on a year-to-date basis, supported by Nigeria’s robust foreign exchange reserves and improved FX liquidity, which provide the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) with sufficient buffers to intervene and curb excessive volatility in the FX market.
