Global Markets:

United States

The S&P Global US Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) fell to 51.9 in February from 53.0 points in January, marking its lowest level in ten months and reflecting slower growth across both the manufacturing and services sectors, alongside softer new business activity. Similarly, the Manufacturing PMI declined to 51.6 from 53.4 points, though it still signaled a seventh consecutive month of expansion. Overall, the data suggests that while the US economy continues to expand, the pace of growth is moderating amid weaker demand and external trade pressures.

Euro Area

Annual inflation in the Euro Area rose to 1.9% in February 2026, up from 1.7% in January and above market expectations, as price pressures strengthened across key components of the consumer basket. Core inflation also edged higher to 2.4%. Meanwhile, the labour market remained resilient, with the unemployment rate falling to a record low of 6.1% in January, supported by a decline in the number of unemployed and a drop in youth unemployment. This shows that the Euro Area economy remains relatively resilient, but the rebound in inflation could complicate the pace of monetary policy easing by the European Central Bank (ECB).

Asia

China’s RatingDog Composite PMI rose to 55.4 in February from 51.6 points in January, marking the fastest expansion in private-sector activity since May 2023, as output and new business growth strengthened across both manufacturing and services, supported by improved export demand. Meanwhile, the government set a 2026 economic growth target of 4.5%–5%, slightly lower than recent years, while maintaining supportive fiscal policies, including a 4.0% fiscal deficit target, to sustain economic momentum and prevent deflation.

Oil Markets

Oil prices surged last week as escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East raised concerns over potential supply disruptions. In particular, fears of disruptions to shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, a key global oil transit route, led investors to price in a higher geopolitical risk premium. This development highlights the sensitivity of oil markets to geopolitical shocks and could sustain upward pressure on global inflation if elevated prices persist.

Outlook:

This week, equity markets across the US, Europe, and Asia will likely open on a cautious note, with investors weighing the impact of higher energy costs on corporate margins and consumer spending. In the US, attention will remain on inflation expectations and any Fed commentary that could either soothe or heighten concerns about the rate path. European markets face a dual headwind from elevated energy prices and sluggish growth momentum, while Asian markets will look to Chinese policy signals and regional trade data for directional cues. Oil prices are expected to stay sensitive to tension between the US and Iran, where any escalation could push prices higher, while diplomatic progress may help ease pressure. 

Domestic Economy:

Nigeria’s broad money supply (M3) contracted slightly to N123.36 trillion in January 2026, from N124.4 trillion in December 2025, according to the latest monetary statistics released by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN). Broad money, which includes currency in circulation outside banks, demand deposits, savings and time deposits, as well as foreign currency deposits, reflects the total liquidity within the economy. The month-on-month decline suggests a modest tightening in liquidity conditions at the start of the year, although money supply remains significantly higher on a year-on-year basis.

Equity Market:

The Nigerian Exchange All Share Index (NGX-ASI) rose by 2.15% week on week (W/W), closing at 196,968.15 points. Market capitalisation stood at ₦126.44tn and year to date return stood at 26.58%. The Oil & Gas sector recorded the best gain during the week while the Insurance sector recorded the least performance.

Fixed Income and Money Market:

The fixed income market recorded mostly bearish movements during the week. In the Nigerian Treasury bills (NTBs) segment, yields declined at only the short end, with the 91-day NTB easing to 16.26%, while the 182-day and 364-day tenors rose to 17.57% and 18.76% respectively, indicating renewed demand at the short end but some upward repricing in the mid and long end of the curve. The O/N rate improved to 22.29%. In the bond market, yields moderated only on the shorter end, with the 3-year yield falling to 15.73%. While the 5-year, 7-year and 10-year yields rose, still suggesting stable investor appetite and expectations of a softer rate environment following the policy adjustment.

Outlook:

Equity Market

This week, the Nigerian equity market is likely to sustain its bullish momentum, though the pace of gains may moderate as the market approaches the significant 200,000-point threshold on the ASI. The Oil and gas sector may attract attention given elevated global oil prices. Overall, the market’s structural bull run remains intact, supported by the CBN’s rate cut and improving macro visibility, but investors should remain alert to global risk-off sentiment and potential profit-taking as valuations stretch.

Fixed Income Market

The fixed income market may remain cautious despite the March 04, 2026 NTB auction, as the slight rise in stop rates, particularly at the long end, suggests investors are not fully convinced about the pace of the Central Bank of Nigeria’s easing cycle. While short-term yields may remain relatively stable, mid-to-long tenors could face upward pressure depending on auction supply, liquidity conditions, and Naira stability, which continues to influence market pricing.